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What is the new normal?
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 1339
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 12:08 pm    Post subject: What is the new normal? Reply with quote

I thought we should start this to predict what will 'never' go back. The other covid thread is bloated with spam now. I assume that the batbug is here to stay.

Will tube stations, buses, planes work? Hotels? Cruise ships? Dentists?
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 14597
Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most people will want back what they had before.

I hope people will start taking any 'social' illness (colds, cough, flu etc) they may have seriously. The number of times people came into work full of cold or with a bad cough. Nobody else wanted their illness but they would still impose their presence on the rest of us.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6368
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think coming to work with a fever will become cause for dismissal.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 8000
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 2:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless there is a very substantial die off I don't expect the demise of buses or tube trains.
The population will still need to get to work, and in urban areas they cant all walk or drive.

I expect a considerable decline in air travel, but not the elimination thereof. I expect that most builders of large aircraft will go bust. With a decline in air travel the existing fleet will suffice for some years.

I suspect the cruise ships will become far less popular, they are not exactly essential, and the rich have plenty of other ways to enjoy themselves with less risk of infection.
I doubt that any more cruise ships will be built. I wonder what will happen to the existing fleet ? hugely expensive assets to scrap.
Perhaps re-fit them for much smaller numbers in greater luxury and with better social distancing.

I expect that home delivery for groceries and many other goods will become far more popular.
I expect most high street shops to close, remembering that many were struggling even without the coronavirus.

I expect considerable increases in the use of drones for lightweight deliveries to minimise human contact.
Also far more use of robots in hospitals, hotels, bars and restaurants, again to minimise human contact.
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 740
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:41 pm    Post subject: Re: What is the new normal? Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
I thought we should start this to predict what will 'never' go back. The other covid thread is bloated with spam now. I assume that the batbug is here to stay.

Will tube stations, buses, planes work? Hotels? Cruise ships? Dentists?


Yes.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6368
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:


I expect considerable increases in the use of drones for lightweight deliveries to minimise human contact.
Also far more use of robots in hospitals, hotels, bars and restaurants, again to minimise human contact.

Less then an hour after you posted this a story came over Fox business that prescriptions would be delivered to residents of "The Villages" ( large retirement communities in Florida) by drone would start early next month perhaps even next week.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 703
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
I think coming to work with a fever will become cause for dismissal.


Unlikely. Money > employees health
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6368
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
I think coming to work with a fever will become cause for dismissal.


Unlikely. Money > employees health

An employee coming to work sick could infect the whole work force and cost the employer a lot of money.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 751
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 9:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
I think coming to work with a fever will become cause for dismissal.


Until about two years ago I used to come to the office even if I had the flu but now if I have so much as a sniffle I take the day off. I got an extra three weeks off last calendar year and did not get fired.

I hope that the new normal involves people covering their mouths with a cloth or hankie when they sneeze.

Personally I am enjoying the new normal. Childcare in Australia is now paid for by the government (or by my taxes, if you prefer) saving me $1000 a month. If I do get fired, which I may do in about three months the extra state unemployment benefits may help me get back some of the taxes I paid in to the state in the last few years - $89,000 in taxes two years ago.

I don't think there will be more environmental awareness in the short term but fossil fuel consumption seems to be currently on a downward track so that may be good for the environment. I expect less unnecessary consumption, a lot less travel and a lot more DIY and gardening. Let's hope some good things come out of it. I would expect Australia probably remains closed to non-citizens for the remainder of 2020 and maybe some kind of quota system after that. I would say that overseas tourism here is dead and buried.

I am actually quite optimistic about the future right now.
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ReserveGrowthRulz
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Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 740
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
I think coming to work with a fever will become cause for dismissal.


Until about two years ago I used to come to the office even if I had the flu but now if I have so much as a sniffle I take the day off. I got an extra three weeks off last calendar year and did not get fired.


Not bad. I've got about 42 weeks of sick leave socked away, I'm saving it for a future triple bypass surgery. It just keeps accumulating, and unlike paid vacation leave there is no limit on accumulating it.

BritDownUnder wrote:

I am actually quite optimistic about the future right now.


Sounds like you have the right to be, at the personal level. But the doomers who want the world to end would probably begin speculating on you attracting roving hordes of MZBs when society collapses, and a pension isn't worth much when the banks close down or hyperinflation takes over, or whatever the end of world fantasy of the day is now that the legs were knocked out from underneath oil doom. The MZBs will have plenty of fuel!
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think any preppers on this forum want, or expect, the world to end but the world we used to know was unsustainable on both an economic and environmental basis and was on its way to collapse in the next few decades either from economic forces or environmental or a combination.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8230
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
Most people will want back what they had before.

I hope people will start taking any 'social' illness (colds, cough, flu etc) they may have seriously. The number of times people came into work full of cold or with a bad cough. Nobody else wanted their illness but they would still impose their presence on the rest of us.
people have to work.
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ReserveGrowthRulz
Banned


Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 740
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Apr 28, 2020 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
I don't think any preppers on this forum want, or expect, the world to end but the world we used to know was unsustainable on both an economic and environmental basis and was on its way to collapse in the next few decades either from economic forces or environmental or a combination.


"The world we used to know..?"

Now THAT sounds as close to a Trumpism as you can get without saying "Make America Great Again!".

Are you familiar with psychology of doom Ken? The commonalities that an outsider may have noticed, categorized, and quantified after 15 years of interactions with them?
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6368
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
]people have to work.

Yes but not every day or when sick. I expect employers to make policy adjustments that keep their work places safe.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6368
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:


I don't think there will be more environmental awareness in the short term but fossil fuel consumption seems to be currently on a downward track so that may be good for the environment. I expect less unnecessary consumption, a lot less travel and a lot more DIY and gardening. Let's hope some good things come out of it. I would expect Australia probably remains closed to non-citizens for the remainder of 2020 and maybe some kind of quota system after that. I would say that overseas tourism here is dead and buried.

I am actually quite optimistic about the future right now.
I am as well. I think you have most of that right with the exception of tourism to Australia. There is (or was) a lot of money to be made there and I expect they will find ways to do it safely to get the cash flowing again. the European countries also had significant chunks of their economies supported by tourism and will be pressed to resume as soon as possible.
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