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Losing the 'net
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clv101
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 13, 2019 11:29 pm    Post subject: Losing the 'net Reply with quote

Today I read Vodafone mobile and fixed networks were down for many users, also it seems Instagram is currently off-line. YouTube recently had an issue too...

There's a lot written about powercuts but how many people have plans to mitigate Internet blackouts? Alternative means of contacting people, already agreed and in place (tested) for important contacts? Off-line local copies of important data? Thinking beyond the personal, today's logistics industry seems highly dependent on the 'net, banking etc...
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I cant do much about wider society being over reliant on the internet.

I have however made plans on a personal level, including printed copies of important information.
I and some others also have a pre-arranged plan in case internet and telephone service is not available.

"If internet and telephone service has been out for more than a week, and prompt restoration seems unlikely, then we will meet in person at 12 noon every Wednesday at the pre-arranged location"

If meeting each week is unduly onerous, then the first Wednesday of each month, same time, same place.

The meeting place has been carefully chosen so as to be suitable in most foreseeable conditions of civil disorder or other emergency.
Written messages may also be left at that place for retrieval by others.
Such messages would be worded in such a way as to be meaningless to any third party.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Once I get to know people well enough on the internet, I usually exchange emails and mobile numbers. If I feel comfortable enough, I exchange addresses.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 271
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:31 am    Post subject: Re: Losing the 'net Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Today I read Vodafone mobile and fixed networks were down for many users, also it seems Instagram is currently off-line. YouTube recently had an issue too...

There's a lot written about powercuts but how many people have plans to mitigate Internet blackouts?


I certainly do. Stacks of paper copies of ongoing research and whatnot, and a computer loaded with models worth more than the house I live in.
Good to go!!

And when that wears thin over the course of months or years, Motorcycle #3 just went live today after some tender loving care on a vacuum line and some vent hoses that had been causing a fuel starvation issue.

So some continental scale motorcycle touring will fill in any gaps.

clv101 wrote:

Alternative means of contacting people, already agreed and in place (tested) for important contacts? Off-line local copies of important data? Thinking beyond the personal, today's logistics industry seems highly dependent on the 'net, banking etc...


Sounds sort of like...prepping? Are there, or can there even be, such things as survivalists on a relatively small island?


Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:43 pm; edited 1 time in total
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:00 am    Post subject: Re: Losing the 'net Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


And when that wears thin over the course of months or years, Motorcycle #3 just went live today after some tender loving care on a vacuum line and some vent hoses that had been causes a fuel starvation issue.

So some continental scale motorcycle touring will fill in any gaps.

That assumes that the fuel distribution system would be unaffected by the disruption of the internet. Might find yourself hoofing it back home.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:58 pm    Post subject: Re: Losing the 'net Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


And when that wears thin over the course of months or years, Motorcycle #3 just went live today after some tender loving care on a vacuum line and some vent hoses that had been causes a fuel starvation issue.

So some continental scale motorcycle touring will fill in any gaps.

That assumes that the fuel distribution system would be unaffected by the disruption of the internet. Might find yourself hoofing it back home.


Once upon a time, with the same basic motorcycle technology motorcycle #3 employs (carburetors, pistons, vacuum coming through a hose from manifold pressure, cables and rubber hoses and this tank holding fuel, not so primitive as having points though) , I was quite able to cross the continental by motorcycle without GPS directions or tracking to keep the wife comfortable with my safety, weather spotting services and hotel reservation apps (with frequent stay points!) on my phone, or so much as a credit card to buy gas. Back then we used this thing we called "cash", it was quite a clever concept on how to pay for goods and services.

Admittedly, most of folks would die nowadays the instant they lost connection with the social media/infotainment/reality TV Matrix they are all plugged into, but only because they want to.

The fuel distribution system also predates the net, there were these things that retail outlets signed called "receiving orders", and then the companies you purchased fuel from sent out these things called "invoices", which were handled by these folks called "bookkeepers", who then match the invoice with the receiving order, and then wrote this thing called..what were they called back then???...??.... on yeah, a check! Slap on this thing called postage and presto! Commerce complete!

It was all quite labor intensive of course, but worked quite effectively. I imagine rather than give up fuel distribution, this old school system might be thought up by old farts like me who once experienced it.

All sarcasm aside, I wonder what happens when us older farts die off, and those who grew up in a world fed to them on a spoon via their phone find themselves without the net. I can't even imagine asking that question, having been raised in a world without it, and still befuddled on occasion by new age references to things that seem completely inconsequential to anyone. What exactly, is booshie? The wife makes fun of me every time I try and use it.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 4:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't have a clue about booshie but I take your point about doing things the way they were done before the internet and cell phones. The problem is that if the net went down it would take time to teach young people how to do it the old way and you might have (let's make that probably have) a hard time finding people with the knowledge to instruct them. The time lapse that would likely entail would result in shortages of critical items to far beyond the point of people starving or dying for lack of needed medicines etc.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
I don't have a clue about booshie...


See what I mean! The wife and kid did this to me!

vtsnowedin wrote:

but I take your point about doing things the way they were done before the internet and cell phones. The problem is that if the net went down it would take time to teach young people how to do it the old way.....


...darn straight....and they deserve it for becoming social media, computer at my fingertips dependent little Wall-E-World dependent. The entire angst in the MSM about how people have to force themselves to stop using that connection is just nuts.

vtsnowedin wrote:


... and you might have (let's make that probably have) a hard time finding people with the knowledge to instruct them.


Probably.

vtsnowedin wrote:

The time lapse that would likely entail would result in shortages of critical items to far beyond the point of people starving or dying for lack of needed medicines etc.


I doubt it. At least in America. There are still folks here who can pick up a book, figure out how it was once done with stone-age technology (a pencil? PENCIL?! What the hell is that!), and make a mint getting basic services back up and running.

The REALLY funny part of this is when the kids get to a fuel station to fill up their computer run 4 wheeled pod (that just happens to have a hidden, nasty polluting ICE in there somewhere they would rather not think about) and after fueling up, the attendant asks them for cash. Can you imagine the looks on the poor <40 year olds face, when confronted with this new and unheard of means of payment that they don't happen to have any of on their person?
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:

The time lapse that would likely entail would result in shortages of critical items to far beyond the point of people starving or dying for lack of needed medicines etc.


I doubt it. At least in America. There are still folks here who can pick up a book, figure out how it was once done with stone-age technology (a pencil? PENCIL?! What the hell is that!), and make a mint getting basic services back up and running.


I can't share your optimism.
Having seen how people fail to adjust when there is a power cut where every retail establishment from gas stations to restaurants were brought to a stand still because the cash registers and card readers would not work and the employees had been trained not to take cash and write down what had been sold. There you sat in a store full of goods unable to buy a flashlight to look for the emergency candles and they just stood there making apologies instead of solving the problem.
Also a hospital was in the news when it was hit by ransom ware and had to cancel surgeries because they could not access their medical records and had insufficient paper backups to proceed without risking malpractice suits if a bad outcome resulted.
We as individuals have not noticed how dependent on the net industry has become because we only pay attention when it fails.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2019 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

vtsnowedin wrote:

The time lapse that would likely entail would result in shortages of critical items to far beyond the point of people starving or dying for lack of needed medicines etc.


I doubt it. At least in America. There are still folks here who can pick up a book, figure out how it was once done with stone-age technology (a pencil? PENCIL?! What the hell is that!), and make a mint getting basic services back up and running.


I can't share your optimism.


I don't consider it optimism that someone will be smart enough to realize that their cool nail gun stopped working because they don't have an air compressor, picks up a hammer and continues doing a task the old fashioned way.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Having seen how people fail to adjust when there is a power cut where every retail establishment from gas stations to restaurants were brought to a stand still because the cash registers and card readers would not work and the employees had been trained not to take cash and write down what had been sold.


I had a brother and sister in Houston during Harvey. It was surprising how well folks didn't curl up in a corner and die because they couldn't run out and use their debit card to get a latte, don't you think?

vtsnowedin wrote:

We as individuals have not noticed how dependent on the net industry has become because we only pay attention when it fails.


Absolutely. And in our recent examples of large storms smacking the US, stopping the power, turning Wilmington into an island for awhile, wasn't it amazing that the death toll on lack of the net for awhile was so small?

As with many things related to collapse, there seems to be an overestimate of how crippling any event or change can be, if only because we forget how it was once done. It changed to what it is today because it is convenient, not because we couldn't live without.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those storm outages were over a relatively small area and for a short time (Puerto Rico excepted). Supplies and other aid came in as soon as it could be trucked from non effected areas usually starting within two days of the storm passing.
Let the entire net go down and there will be no place to dispatch aid from which will be a much bigger and long lasting problem. People will switch back if needed but they will not be able to do it over night and that time lapse will be what kills people.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 3:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Those storm outages were over a relatively small area and for a short time (Puerto Rico excepted).


Oh, the folks in Houston might not have thought of their problems as small in area, or short in time. Smile

vtsnowedin wrote:

Supplies and other aid came in as soon as it could be trucked from non effected areas usually starting within two days of the storm passing.


Sure. And over the course of days and maybe even a week, folks managed to do without not only the net but electricity and whatever other comforts they might normally had.

I am of the mind that BAU is quite resilient, and that includes even without minor items like the net. The food, water, heat thing I get, and having grown up in the boondocks I will admit that I do like having them, rather than not.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Let the entire net go down and there will be no place to dispatch aid from which will be a much bigger and long lasting problem. People will switch back if needed but they will not be able to do it over night and that time lapse will be what kills people.


Aid was also once dispatched without the net.

VT, you aren't a young guy any more than I am, you don't remember the days of storms and power outages in the days of yore? Sure the youngsters will all cry and whine and pretend their world has ended, but that is what youngsters nowadays do.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Back in the day of our youth, 50s, 60s and 70s in my case, shops and businesses and their customers actually held stock so an interruption in supply could last a week of more without too much of a problem. Nowadays shops and many businesses and their customers only hold a day or so's stock and have a standing order for the next day's delivery.

If an interruption goes on for much more than a couple of days things start to get troublesome. After that if emergency supplies don't get through their are major problems. Also if an interruption is over a very large area, a whole region for instance, or if transport links are broken, bridges down say, there would be problems.

If electricity went out over a large area, a state or two, along with major transport disruption over that area there would be people starving and riots breaking out because people, at least most of them, don't have a reserve in place. It would be more than just kids whining.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any large scale and prolonged internet/telephone outage seems unlikely except as part of a generalised TEOTWAWKI situation.

Localised outages happen regularly in extreme weather or due to breakdowns.
These localised outages are most inconvenient but seldom produce a significant death toll.

A long term outage covering a large part of a developed nation would probably kill millions.
No internet=no food, apart from what you have already stocked, can grow, or hunt, or barter for within walking distance.
No internet=no oil, after emergency stockpiles have been used.
No internet=no money, apart from cash transactions within walking distance.
No internet=no grid electricity.
No internet=no natural gas supply, no urban water supply.
No internet=no modern medical treatment.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2019 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Back in the day of our youth, 50s, 60s and 70s in my case, shops and businesses and their customers actually held stock so an interruption in supply could last a week of more without too much of a problem. Nowadays shops and many businesses and their customers only hold a day or so's stock and have a standing order for the next day's delivery.


Indeed. Aren't they going to need to move quickly to get around their little self induced efficiency problem!

kenneal-lagger wrote:

If an interruption goes on for much more than a couple of days things start to get troublesome. After that if emergency supplies don't get through their are major problems. Also if an interruption is over a very large area, a whole region for instance, or if transport links are broken, bridges down say, there would be problems.


Once upon a time emergency supplies and their deliver didn't require the net either. Here in the US the federal government would snap its fingers, engage emergency powers and next thing you know train schedules would be rearranged, trucking would be temporarily commandeered, all the usual BAU mechanisms kicking in to save itself.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

If electricity went out over a large area, a state or two, along with major transport disruption over that area there would be people starving and riots breaking out because people, at least most of them, don't have a reserve in place. It would be more than just kids whining.


The kids would have already curled up and died without access to their Facebook friends. Katrina was the closest the US came to anything resembling what you described, and it while there was looting (which is pretty common during any evacuation) there wasn't much in the way of riots and starvation.

Once the Feds got off their backsides and pulled the trigger when they understood that a single storm in the right place could cause such major disruption, they got right on it.

And none of this is the consequence of losing the net for an equivalent amount of time. Folks aren't about to riot (well, the sub-40's age group might) or starve at all in this scenario.
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