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Net Zero–The UK’s contribution to stopping global warmin
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careful_eugene



Joined: 26 Jun 2006
Posts: 553
Location: Nottingham UK

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

The sooner we come to grips with this reality, the less the likelihood we waste precious time hand wringing over it.

Why do you participate on this forum then?
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 408
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

careful_eugene wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

The sooner we come to grips with this reality, the less the likelihood we waste precious time hand wringing over it.

Why do you participate on this forum then?


Well last I looked it was a peak oil place. I am slowly coming around to the realization that the fact the doomed other peak oil sites (peak oil turning out to be a crock) hasn't doomed this place because peak oilers here just slid on over into climate change doom and kept right on trucking.

I was mislead by the front page I guess. Smile

Quote:
Powerswitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness & discussion of the impending & permanent decline of cheap oil & gas supply. The consequences of will affect every aspect of our lives.


So maybe that can get changed to some catchy climate doom angle instead? Some graphics other than oil production equipment or something? Like this?

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careful_eugene



Joined: 26 Jun 2006
Posts: 553
Location: Nottingham UK

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
careful_eugene wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

The sooner we come to grips with this reality, the less the likelihood we waste precious time hand wringing over it.

Why do you participate on this forum then?


Well last I looked it was a peak oil place. I am slowly coming around to the realization that the fact the doomed other peak oil sites (peak oil turning out to be a crock) hasn't doomed this place because peak oilers here just slid on over into climate change doom and kept right on trucking.

I was mislead by the front page I guess. Smile

Quote:
Powerswitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness & discussion of the impending & permanent decline of cheap oil & gas supply. The consequences of will affect every aspect of our lives.


So maybe that can get changed to some catchy climate doom angle instead? Some graphics other than oil production equipment or something? Like this?


In other words, you're just as guilty of wasting your time on a "doomer" site as the rest of us.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11387
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Powerswitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness & discussion of the impending & permanent decline of cheap oil & gas supply. The consequences of will affect every aspect of our lives.


As you have just pointed out RGR we are a Peak Cheap Oil site and that is one of the things that members of this forum choose to discuss. If members are happy discussing things like Climate Change and to "wring our hands" over it that is up to us. If you don't like it you know where you can go.

As to caring about wildlife, we don't know what the critical species is upon which human life depends and we won't know until we have killed it and our ecosystem starts to collapse. It has been shown in many studies that species are often dependent on other species for the health of their ecosystem and die off when the other species are absent from the system and there is no reason to say that humans aren't in the same boat. so probably the more species we can keep alive the more likely we are to survive ourselves. And once again I would like us to survive for the sake of my children and I realise that you are patently not bothered, RGR.

If you don't like/agree with the ethos by which we run the site you can leave and we won't miss you.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 408
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

careful_eugene wrote:

In other words, you're just as guilty of wasting your time on a "doomer" site as the rest of us.


Indeed! I don't smoke, so I've got to do something to step away from trying to get a CO2 injection model to give me the incremental oil volumes from a run of the mill 5 spot injection pattern.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 408
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Quote:
Powerswitch.org.uk is dedicated to raising awareness & discussion of the impending & permanent decline of cheap oil & gas supply. The consequences of will affect every aspect of our lives.


As you have just pointed out RGR we are a Peak Cheap Oil site and that is one of the things that members of this forum choose to discuss. If members are happy discussing things like Climate Change and to "wring our hands" over it that is up to us. If you don't like it you know where you can go.


Cheap oil was gone after 1972 or so, as any graph of real oil prices will show you. Here is one for reference.

Draw a line from when cheap oil existed, 1970/71 or so, and any point afterwards and presto, you (unlike Colin Campbell) will know that cheap oil ended long before the web was born to collect peak oil folks together to pretend their website was about that.

Is there any reason why you didn't already know this?

kenneal-lagger wrote:


As to caring about wildlife, we don't know what the critical species is upon which human life depends and we won't know until we have killed it and our ecosystem starts to collapse. It has been shown in many studies that species are often dependent on other species for the health of their ecosystem and die off when the other species are absent from the system and there is no reason to say that humans aren't in the same boat. so probably the more species we can keep alive the more likely we are to survive ourselves. And once again I would like us to survive for the sake of my children and I realise that you are patently not bothered, RGR.


Not quite "patently not bothered". More like I have come to a even psychological keel against our individual and collective mortality. Nothing more. Stress kills. I recommend against suffering from it unnecessarily, regardless of cause.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

If you don't like/agree with the ethos by which we run the site you can leave and we won't miss you.


I have no objection to folks running the site any way you wish. It isn't my fault that you wrote a description that broadcasts some pretty basic economic ignorance of even what "cheap" oil means.
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kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11387
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cheap oil for the world depends on how long the US Stock Exchange will keep financing US fracking companies to produce oil and gas at near cost, cost or less. Once the fracking boom in the US runs out of steam cheap oil will go.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 408
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Cheap oil for the world depends on how long the US Stock Exchange will keep financing US fracking companies to produce oil and gas at near cost, cost or less. Once the fracking boom in the US runs out of steam cheap oil will go.


Cheap oil is a relative concept using a common metric. In the case of real versus nominal, real allows the comparison through time to balance out changes in relative value. Comparing nominal prices will almost always allow you to say that today things are "more" expensive, when in reality everything is "more" expensive because inflation is baked into how modern economies work.

The price of oil (as "cheap" is nothing but its relative value between two locations or points in time) is defined as the clearing price when demand meets supply along two lnon-linear curves. Financing, some countries stock market or another, the stock value of Haliburton and Schlumburger (fracking companies) or US E&Ps are just as important as consumer demand, the EV mix, fuel substitution in places moving away from liquids for generation with the proliferation of global LNG capacity, and so on and so forth.

Or did you mean for your comment to just parrot the likes of SRSRocco, Gail Tverberg, Post Carbon Institute, etc etc when it comes to understanding how price works?

If you had an interest in US completion techniques, we can discuss those. I did this class for like 70 students on petroleum geology a year ago, from rocks types and the Blakey slides right on through modern drilling and completion techniques, resources and reserve estimates, etc etc. If you wish to discuss the likes of what bloggers, forum experts, Facebook heroes, or Oil Drum retreads are saying nowadays, I have kept track as to where the peak oilers went, and how (in some cases) they have modified their stories in order to save at least a little face. Assuming they didn't just off themselves like Ruppert, or run and hide and attempt to erase their oil-ignorant footprints like Matt "I'll read your palm for a dollar!" Savinar.
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