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Ghawar fading faster than anyone expected
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7558
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 6:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Ghawar fading faster than anyone expected Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Little John wrote:

If the Saudis "do this quite well", ....


Not "if". I've tutored the Saudi engineers in college, and worked with ARAMCO folks professionally. I made a statement, and it was based on experience working with their personnel.

Little John wrote:

...what is your explanation for why production is not currently matching the peak of production?


I already told you. There is an optimal rate, based on maximizing ultimate recoverability. It is no longer 5 million barrels per day.

Little John wrote:

In other words, if the Saudi's do this quite well, then their production level at the peak of production was also being presumably managed quite well. Given that, what is your explanation for their production level now not being managed quite as well as it was previously?


Your first sentence is correct.

Your second sentence is incorrect. Optimal reservoir management is rate independent, when maximizing for optimal recovery. Optimal recovery is not rate, it is the percentage of oil recovered from the original oil in place. Everyone wants more of that ratio (recovered/inplace), not less.

With the lack of enthusiasm you have demonstrated in even discussing your logical disconnect with what a peak is, getting into how one goes about configuring a given field's optimal recovery with a given rate with you probably be a waste of my time.

Not yours of course, because right now you appear to have a set of talking points you wish to stick to, rather than have a discussion where both sides are participating. I'm game with that approach as well, as it tends to suit peak oilers far better than discussing the scientific and technical concepts involved.
yada yada yada.....


You have not provided a single shred of evidence to back up your claim other than an appeal to your own authority.

You've had your chance

You are a bullshitter.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 513
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2019 6:44 pm    Post subject: Re: Ghawar fading faster than anyone expected Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
yada yada yada.....


Indeed. I suggest that if we can't even discuss what a peak is rationally, then we should agree to disagree and be done with it.

Little John wrote:

You have not provided a single shred of evidence to back up your claim other than an appeal to your own authority.


Well, ask Vortex if he considers me an authority then, and if my opinion is worth something. A little something, or a bunch of something. He did seem quite reasonable those many years ago now. I'll stand by a third parties judgement on what I can, or cannot comment on with authority.

Little John wrote:

You've had your chance

You are a bullshitter.


Oh, I have certainly had my chances. And some luck. And to be honest, yes, I can bullshit, but then honestly, what oil man can't? We all have a little bit of it in us, hours of practice standing around on the drill floor shooting the shit with the driller and floorhands.
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