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2019 predictions
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 14525
Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 4:37 pm    Post subject: 2019 predictions Reply with quote

for the 2018 predictions, emordnilap wrote:
Another major financial crash.

Several 'once-in-a-hundred years' record-breaking weather disasters.

Half the world's wealth owned by 5 people.


Well, the crash is still imminent, just a digit out. It’s overdue.

Plenty horrific weather-related events occurred.

And my last prediction is coming true:

Quote:
In comparison to the previous year, when 43 people owned about the same as the poorer half of the world, in 2018 it took only 26 billionaires to match the wealth of 3.8 billion people.


And it’s working the opposite way too: the poorest half got poorer. What a fücked-up species we are.

Source.

It’ll be down to around 16 by the year end.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I predicted that 2018 would be broadly similar to 2017, but a bit worse.
I was generally correct in this prediction.
I also expect 2019 to be rather similar to 2018, but a bit worse.

Do not however take my predictions too seriously, since I also predicted that oil would be over $100 at the end of 2018, and it was actually only about $50.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But it did reach $85 in November. If only US shale had rebounded 2 months slower, your $100 prediction could have been very accurate.

I have long since stopped worrying about if onlys. That way madness lies. Smile
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From my American point of view I will predict that the UK ends up with a no-deal Brexit. Not because it is the best option but because the principals couldn't cobble together a majority. Not to worry though as the no-deal Brexit lets all the willing buyers and willing sellers come to agreeable terms at least as good as the EU rules. This will really P!$$ the EU off but they had it coming. Back at the USA I think the Dems rethink impeaching Trump with Pence in the wings opting for defeating both in 2020.
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RevdTess



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
From my American point of view I will predict that the UK ends up with a no-deal Brexit. Not because it is the best option but because the principals couldn't cobble together a majority. Not to worry though as the no-deal Brexit lets all the willing buyers and willing sellers come to agreeable terms at least as good as the EU rules. This will really P!$$ the EU off but they had it coming. Back at the USA I think the Dems rethink impeaching Trump with Pence in the wings opting for defeating both in 2020.


Any predictions on the Dems presidential candidate?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2019 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RevdTess wrote:
......Any predictions on the Dems presidential candidate?


I saw something earlier today which said that Bernie Sanders is doing well in the running order.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 12:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RevdTess wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
From my American point of view I will predict that the UK ends up with a no-deal Brexit. Not because it is the best option but because the principals couldn't cobble together a majority. Not to worry though as the no-deal Brexit lets all the willing buyers and willing sellers come to agreeable terms at least as good as the EU rules. This will really P!$$ the EU off but they had it coming. Back at the USA I think the Dems rethink impeaching Trump with Pence in the wings opting for defeating both in 2020.


Any predictions on the Dems presidential candidate?

It is too early to say with more jumping into the ring each day. I do think the old guard. :Hillary ,Bernie ,Biden, Warren will fade away as the voters move to younger candidates. But who they choose to endorse as they exit might be interesting, especially Bernie.
I, not having the pulse of the Democrat party, thought that Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii had an excellent resume, Military vet. Bernie supporter, etc. but the pundits dredged up her opposition to gay marriage decades ago and have dismissed her. It will be interesting to see what the Dem voters of Iowa and New Hampshire have to say about that as many of them had the same opinion at that time.
None of the other wannabes impress me much but then I'm a died in the wool Republican so the less I like them the better their chances.
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boisdevie



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd like to see Occasional-Cortex run in 2020 - just to help the Republicans romp home again.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 23, 2019 10:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:
I'd like to see Occasional-Cortex run in 2020 - just to help the Republicans romp home again.

She can not as she is not old enough as per the US constitution. She will most certainly run as soon as she is old enough and will use the interim to build base and resume. That is a good thing for her as her knowledge base at present is sorely lacking. She can use the intervening years to bone up on all those things she needs to know that she never saw on goggle or twitter.
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oops I forgot to add mine!

(My comment about Australia has already been overtaken by events though - frying eggs on the pavement has literally been left in the goo by the actual pavement melting!)
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boisdevie



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="vtsnowedin"]
boisdevie wrote:
That is a good thing for her as her knowledge base at present is sorely lacking. .


Yeah, but even in 25 years she'll still be as dumb but still convinced she's clever.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
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Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
Oops I forgot to add mine!

(My comment about Australia has already been overtaken by events though - frying eggs on the pavement has literally been left in the goo by the actual pavement melting!)


I don't believe this can happen. Maybe you can get the egg white to go from clear to white at some temperature less than 100C but I don't think that is frying in the true sense of the word.
The highest temperature my 'pavement' got according to my FLIR infra red camera was 59C when the air temperature was about 41C.

On to my predictions, since few others have bothered.

General World situation
Continued slow decline masked by economic crises, trade disputes and Brexit. CO2 emissions rise inexorably but most of the extra heat is being absorbed by the oceans. Sea level rises of maybe 5-10mm per year.

Middle East
Syria gets under the control of Bashar Assad but because of high casualties amongst his followers (supposedly one third of Alawite males of military age are already dead) who only comprise about 10% of the population it will be greatly unstable without Iranian and Russian help. I am happy to see both of those pour money and lives into this venture if they feel so inclined.

Oil Price
Due to Sunni Shia tensions the price will be kept low to try and weaken the Saudi-Iran economies. China and the US are happy to play along to get cheap oil and develop electric cars to break free of the requirements of oil.

Brexit
A hard Brexit unless the EU folds. This will be no measure of May's skills more a reflection of her total incompetence.

Australia
Hot weather continues. Drought continues. Our town has had only two thirds of expected rainfall for the last two years and it is coming more in once-a-month bursts rather than steady drizzle.
On the upside solar and wind development continues apace in spite of government attempts to block it. We are at 20% renewables in electricity generation and I expect that to grow about 2-3% a year.

EU
Probably will putter on without the UK. Germany is well and truely the paymaster and have gotten to their aim had they won World War One of having a Europe-wide Customs Union under their control. Continued strife in France and Italy.

UK
Continued dependence on imported Oil and Gas. A brief disruption in imports and exports will mostly be overcome. I would expect long delays on the cross-channel routes leading to a reduction in importance of this trade route due to a defacto French blockade of the UK leading to a greater emphasis on Dutch and German ports for UK-Europe trade. Too early to tell if the economy will benefit from Brexit. Given May's lack of management skills I expect few advantages will be taken. I expect her and the Tory party to learn the previous lesson of calling an early election though.

US
Trump blunders on and the reason why he has not failed or gone yet is because he actually speaks for a lot of Americans. He could actually make inroads against the Chinese-US trade imbalance if he sticks to his guns but is probably busy with a lot of other things.

East Asia
China continues to strengthen its grip on the South China Sea and the East Asia region generally.

Rest of World
Countries getting into debt with China will grow in Latin America and Africa. What long term effect on their economies is anybodies guess. I suppose they will have a lot of unwanted government buildings and sports stadia along with some useful things like hydro electric dams and railways. Mostly though their economies will get plundered.
I could see a small chance of the US and China-Russia coming to blows over Venezuela. I think the US will win that one. Could have ramifications elsewhere though.

So, overall, more of the same. It is quite possible to feel fine with the world seemingly in chaos and in gentle, inexorable decline. I certainly do.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:

(My comment about Australia has already been overtaken by events though - frying eggs on the pavement has literally been left in the goo by the actual pavement melting!)


Quote:

I don't believe this can happen. Maybe you can get the egg white to go from clear to white at some temperature less than 100C but I don't think that is frying in the true sense of the word.
The highest temperature my 'pavement' got according to my FLIR infra red camera was 59C when the air temperature was about 41C.

.

Frying an egg on the pavement is not as far fetched as you might think.
The black color of an asphalt road absorbs sunlight and in the absence of a cooling wind will become much hotter then the surrounding air. This is why you see heat waves rising off pavements, roofs, and plowed fields. The grades of asphalt cement we use here become liquid at 180F but Australia surely uses much stiffer grades to stand the heat so the temp they begin to "melt" as stated in the news stories means your talking of a road surface temp of 200 F or so, not far from the 213 needed to fry and probably plenty hot enough to cook the egg if not make it sizzle.
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

FWIW here are a few of my predictions for the remaining 11 months of 2019.

Economic slowdown in China becomes ever more pronounced with manufacturing dropping like a stone and over inflated property prices popping.

The Housing bubble in the Anglo Saxon world - Australia, New Zealand, Canada UK and US will either stagnate or go into decline with demand dropping like a stone.

Reaction here particularly vis-à-vis the Central Banks will be telling: the Tories - who will cling to power however desperately, will do all in they can to keep Mark Carney in charge of the BoE. Trump, on the other hand, will do his hardest to get Jerome Powell dismissed from the Fed.

Brexit to morph into Waiting for Godot.

More High Street stores closing - Debenhams and House of Fraser looking the most vulnerable.

The withdrawal of US troops out of Syria will be suspended following "terrorist attacks"

New record high temperatures recorded somewhere
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Potemkin Villager



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PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2019 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:


..... Brexit to morph into Waiting for Godot......



Laughing Laughing Stasis the movie!
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