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Slow crash -> internet fail -> fast crash?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9876
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 10:58 pm    Post subject: Slow crash -> internet fail -> fast crash? Reply with quote

In recent years I have come down from the fence on the slow-crash/fast-crash debate, because it seemed obvious after 2008 that TPTB would do everything in their considerable power to make sure the fast crash doesn't happen. And it really does look like we're experiencing the early days of a slow crash.

However, I am also now wondering whether our near-total dependency on the internet could provide the context for an internet-specific fast crash. We all know how important it is, in so many ways, but it's the double-whammy of economics (how many businesses would instantly go bust without the internet? I know my foraging business cease to exist, for example) and socio-political (without the internet as a means for ordinary people to share information about what is really going on, we're totally screwed, aren't we?).

And yet if there's a slow crash coming, then sooner or later the infrastructure that allows the internet to keep growing, and keep working, will start to falter. And once it starts to falter then what remains of it will come under ever more pressure - it will fragment and rapidly become unusable, won't it? Surely the internet has to be a fully-operational global system, or it stops being what it is and becomes something much less significant.

Is the crash going to be slow until the internet fails, and then fast?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7020
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed May 23, 2018 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have thought about this a great deal and have been downloading and storing locally as much useful information as I can. In some cases, also printing it out. This is in things as diverse as basic medical information, food storage techniques, food production etc. So many of us now rely on Google et al for all of our information streams. If the internet goes down, most people would be completely buggered since books are just not being bought in the same quantities as they used to be. Initially this has led to a fall in price. But, I am sure it will eventually lead to them being a luxury item.

Additionally, if the internet goes down, a lot of the old infrastructure for the production and dissemination of information in newsletter/newspaper format, both locally and nationally, will have to be rediscovered.

The problem is, until we are deep into collapse, none of the above makes any kind of economic sense and it will only begin to make sense after the fact of needing it.

Such is the way of it.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with UE, the Internet going dark for any extended period could easily trigger a 'fast crash'. That in itself is quite remarkable, just 15 years ago it wouldn't have been that big a deal (most businesses and certainly government still had pretty robust off-line systems), 30 years ago a total non-event.

Amazing that a technology so young could have acquired so much power.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4025

PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

All the information you need for normal living you can store with a few selected books. As you’ve mentioned. Most medical needs can be met with a decent diet, and we stop this modern ill (pun) advised reliance on jabs and pills. Throw out the acetaminophen for starters, along with all the other non-steroidal anti-inflammatories. They might reduce the pain but they screw the system. Growing food, you need a book or two, and lots of experience. Permaculture would probably be the best way as it gives the soil a chance. Get an air rifle, a squirrel or two would give some sustenance. It will be very difficult for rural dwellers, and damn near impossible for urban dwellers.

As you say, such is the way of it. That’s what the globalists have done for you.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 7:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would certainly advise a good library of reference books on medicine, crop growing, electrical and plumbing work and anything else useful.

That however only helps on a personal level and leaves society at large still vulnerable to any major internet outage.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 7:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think it will take an internet crash:

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/05/22/windows_10_update_woes_redux/
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Linux
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5534
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Windows has been a disaster area forever. If it was going to crash the economy it would have done it by now. Even microsoft does not use windows for its critical systems.

The internet was designed to be very hard to destroy. It will route itself around areas of failure, and the big players have huge datafarms massively redundant and failover distributed across multiple continents. However, the core algorithms for network addressing are controlled by just a handful of root servers. If a delayed virus or unstable algorithm was introduced into these, and it propagated across the global network before becoming apparent, then catastrophic collapse is possible. I remember the internet really struggled on 9/11, partly due to physical damage in New York, but mostly due to overload.

The key failure route will be the electricity supply. WIthout internet, it will be very difficult to maintain electricity, and without electricity the internet is dead.

BTW I can no longer post from my phone. The submit button no longer works on android.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Linux, just saying...
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, this is interesting...

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/516571/build-your-own-internet-with-mobile-mesh-networking/
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 9:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I could live without an internet far longer than it would take for plan B to be in place. It is functioning IT eqpt that is important.

That article on phones seems research funded fluff. If every phone routes every message it hears, what sort of capacity is feasible? It might have value for a panic button/pager/locator feature but only chosen people could use it much.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu May 24, 2018 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
I could live without an internet far longer than it would take for plan B to be in place. It is functioning IT eqpt that is important.

That article on phones seems research funded fluff. If every phone routes every message it hears, what sort of capacity is feasible? It might have value for a panic button/pager/locator feature but only chosen people could use it much.
What it means is that ad hoc networks could be set up by communities in the event of internet infrastructure going down. It would be limited, of course. But, a damned site less limiting than no public networking at all and so would still be useful. Additionally, this kind of ad hoc networking tech is only just coming into being and so we can expect improvements in it over time.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5269
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 2:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And just what role do I phones have in getting food from the fields to your table? They probably make the farmer better informed about the weather etc. but they put no seed in the ground or fertilizer and they never harvest a crop and dry and store it until sale. They are nice to have but if they fail the farmers will still bring a crop to the elevator.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 3:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

logisitcs
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adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7232
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Fri May 25, 2018 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
logisitcs


Indeed, I suspect that most members of these forums are able to survive as individuals without the internet for some time, probably indefinitely.

The problem is the effect on wider society, upon which we are all reliant though to varying degrees.
No internet means almost no food in the shops ! the vast majority of food is purchased from major supermarkets, and replenishment is largely automatic and internet based. Small shops tend to order on-line but manually.
Farm shops and the like might be OK at least initially, but how much food is available thus ?

No internet would severely impact food production after a while. How do farmers obtain seeds, spare parts for machines, and agro chemicals, almost certainly on line. Smaller farms may purchase these items locally for cash, but from distributors who rely on the internet.

Electricity supply would be seriously affected, a lot of plant is remotely controlled via the internet. Fuel is paid for on line.

Most large organisations would be thrown into chaos. How would staff even know what their hours of duty are ? (staff rota planning outsourced to Bombay and emailed) How would they be paid ? (payroll and bank transfers also outsourced, but to Delhi)

Most of us could survive this sort of thing for a while, but for how long ?
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