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The Seneca effect (cliff)
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:17 pm    Post subject: The Seneca effect (cliff) Reply with quote

This blog argues that a future collapse would be sudden as in the Seneca (effect) cliff. Some here argue that a collapse would take hundreds of years but others, including me, think that that collapse could only take tens of years and that we are in the first stages of it now.

Because of the complexity of our civilisation, the high energy use and the highly technical and interwoven mechanical and economic support that underpins it any interruption of these elements would lead to a cascading collapse of the whole system.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, I'd go along with the idea that the world as westerners know it will collapse relatively rapidly.

The tipping point of climate chaos is the biggie and we're approaching it. The financial system or the drain on non-renewable resources would happen anyway in the absence of wild weather.

In a way, it's also tied in with brevity - products, movements, ideas, attention, what have you, everything - are mostly of decreasing longevity.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We've already seen how quickly living standards can fall for ordinary people after the 2008 crash. But there is an element of slow-boiled frogs about anyway, insomuch as that even though this looks like the beginning of a crash to you and me, but to most people it just looks like a recession caused by bad management.

I know plenty of people who now think peak oil was like the the millenium bug and the climate change is still stoppable. Very few people actually see what is happening as evidence of collapse.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is a saying from the 1930's. If your neighbor is out of work it is a recession but if you are out of work it is a Depression.
Whatever speed a decline comes at us we will have to adapt to it at that speed or perish. Whining that it is coming faster then predicted won't help a bit.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not whining that it is coming faster, or coming at all, I'm whining about other people not seeing it and not doing anything, even keeping a bit of extra food in a cupboard.

I suppose that could be a good thing in the end as, when the crash comes, those people will die off just that bit quicker leaving a few more resources for those who are a bit better prepared.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:11 pm    Post subject: Re: The Seneca effect (cliff) Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
This blog argues that a future collapse would be sudden as in the Seneca (effect) cliff. Some here argue that a collapse would take hundreds of years but others, including me, think that that collapse could only take tens of years and that we are in the first stages of it now.

Because of the complexity of our civilisation, the high energy use and the highly technical and interwoven mechanical and economic support that underpins it any interruption of these elements would lead to a cascading collapse of the whole system.


For some years I have felt that a slow collapse was more likely, BUT by a slow collapse I meant one that takes decades.
This is considered "fast" in the above.

To me a fast collapse is one that takes less than a year, and perhaps less than a month. An Alex Scarrow Event as portrayed in "LAST LIGHT", or something similar.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:

To me a fast collapse is one that takes less than a year, and perhaps less than a month. An Alex Scarrow Event as portrayed in "LAST LIGHT", or something similar.


That is possible but unlikely. It would require a major event such as cascade failure of satellites which then led to a snowball/domino effect of other collapse mechanisms. Catastrophic failure of an ice sheet somewhere leading to rapid sea level rises might also do it.

I think of "fast collapse" as one that takes a decade or three and a slow collapse as taking a century or more.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2018 10:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Quote:

To me a fast collapse is one that takes less than a year, and perhaps less than a month. An Alex Scarrow Event as portrayed in "LAST LIGHT", or something similar.


That is possible but unlikely. It would require a major event such as cascade failure of satellites which then led to a snowball/domino effect of other collapse mechanisms. Catastrophic failure of an ice sheet somewhere leading to rapid sea level rises might also do it.

I think of "fast collapse" as one that takes a decade or three and a slow collapse as taking a century or more.


Agreed, the fast collapse in under a year likely needs a significant external 'shock' rather than the system itself collapsing of its own accord.

However the USSR was a 'collapse' in my book, ~50% fall in GDP etc and only took a year or so. Something similar could happen globally, next week/month/year/decade.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
..... Catastrophic failure of an ice sheet somewhere leading to rapid sea level rises might also do it.....


A massive volcanic eruption eruption would be more likely to do that. Or even a massive volcanic eruption under an ice sheet in Antarctica might be more likely. Thinking about it although that might cause a lot of ice melt the ash cloud might be contained around the South Pole by the polar winds limiting the global cooling effect. A massive eruption somewhere around the equator would have a bigger effect on the rest of the world.
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 17, 2018 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Consider the gravest threat that life on Earth faces today: global warming. This threat cannot be adequately confronted in the framework of capitalism, which indeed is responsible for it; it demands a systemic socio-politico-economic revolution, a social transformation that systematically elevates human needs above capital’s needs.


Quote:
We might also reflect that, climatically speaking, the best thing that can happen in the short term is a global economic depression. Carbon emissions in the U.S. dropped by 11% between 2007 and 2013, mostly because of the Great Recession. A deeper economic collapse would have an even more positive effect, quite apart from the contributions it would make to the sort of systemic breakdown that would facilitate radical change.


Source
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Wed Oct 03, 2018 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm wondering about a pandemic - Something we could have dealt with back in the 70s or 80s but which would completely overwhelm today's USA & UK governments.

Look at how te USA is completely failing to deal with the aftermath of this year's hurricane season. And last year 'flu killed 80,000 Americans! There were people who "couldn't afford the flu vaccine". To me, that just sounds barbaric - and for a country, self-defeating.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2018 2:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If your looking for a cataclysmic volcano eruption all you need is for the Yellowstone Caldera to pop off equal to it's last blast 640,000 years ago. They estimate it was the equivalent of 2500 Mt. Saint Helen's eruptions. That would certainly wipe out all life between it and the East coast and probably put Europe into an ice age over night. The eruption before the last one was 1.2 million years ago so if it takes 600,000 years to recharge it could go off any time. tick tick tick tick.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Folk from the States have been attempting to roast me on Twit by pointing out that 'flu vaccines can be had for free there, contrary to what I read in the papers (Grauniad iirc - should be reliable...).

VT, can you confirm? Does it depend what state you're in?
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 01, 2018 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
Folk from the States have been attempting to roast me on Twit by pointing out that 'flu vaccines can be had for free there, contrary to what I read in the papers (Grauniad iirc - should be reliable...).

VT, can you confirm? Does it depend what state you're in?
Sorry but most of the free flu shots are really free to you if you have insurance and what they really mean is there is no copay for getting the shot. As ninety one percent of Americans have insurance of one form or another they are "free" of copay to most people.
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In my area, flu vaccines are free for children, medically compromised adults and their immediate families.
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