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Two Thought Experiments
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1252
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 9:44 pm    Post subject: Two Thought Experiments Reply with quote

Whilst many nuts and bolts issues are discussed calmly, in depth and with some erudition here I feel that there is much fundamental difference of opinion on the various living in the future scenarios that are likely to unfold. Such opinions often mirror existing strongly entrenched beliefs and pet theories (and boy do we all love our cherished pet theories) that folk are very attached to. This often seems to lead to unproductive discussion, ranting, displays of rage and needless angst.

To address this I would like to suggest participation in two thought experiments.

One is practical and is to consider your own unique situation and what you consider are the key factors that will affect your life and how this will be impacted by the reaction of others in your immediate community as descent continues.

The second is theoretical and is to carry out the same exercise imagining your immediate community is composed of the members of this forum rather than your actual neighbours.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1338
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, I'll go first.

I'm very, very blessed. I have a decent enough job with stability, my house is paid for and I have some savings. I'm coming towards the end of my working career and I live reasonably modestly. Unless currency becomes totally worthless tomorrow, I'll be OK. The immediate community is very 'tame', but I don't overly mix with them - who knows in the future. My main 'crime' is the daily commute, but that will come to an end at some point. I try to treat others as I would like to be treated myself, but I'm not overly worried what others think of me.

It would be very strange to live with all the characters on here. I don't think it would be very reflective of modern Britain. A bunch of opinionated middle aged and elderly men. No women, no kids, no ethnic diversity, probably no sexual diversity. Pale, stale, male - how dull. There would be murder within a month, with or without our US friend(s) and their arsenals.

Next ?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8315
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am cash poor in terms of spare cash. But, I have an allotment and a house that I have been doing up and is very nearly finished and very nearly paid off. I have two sons who are just turning 30 and have just turned thirty. One of whom is married and is likely to start a family in the next year or so. He is earning a very large wage in Newcastle and, so long as his job holds up, he should be okay short term to medium term, notwithstanding a total collapse of societal systems. The other is ducking and diving in London on short term contracts or back here in between them. His immediate term future is much more unpredictable. But, it is what it is.

I was teacher but left that profession recently. I have also just lost my job as a carer in the place I worked because I can not do nights for medical reasons. This is not age related. I have always had this medical issue. But, age probably makes it worse. Anyway, too old for teaching on supply now and so will need to look for other care work where nights is not an issue. Probably home-help care work I should think. Until then, on the dole and/or working with my brother and nephews who are all self employed roofers/landscapers.

Wife working as HCA so still got her wage coming in. But, things are financially tight. But, what's new? So, funnily enough, not too stressed about it. One of the advantages of being born and raised with bugger all. So long as the bills are paid and the cupboards are full. And they are, easily.

In terms of working in and with my community, not a problem round here. Plenty of work on the side if you are handy. And I am. Very. Pretty much nothing I cannot turn my hand to. Also, I am a local producer/supplier of something available in the shops but minus the ordinary taxes. So, that's always provides a bit on the side at all times. Wife and myself both intend to set up a sewing service at some point taking in curtains/clothes etc as the nearest one to here is about 12 miles away in Redcar up the coast. Also, in the process of negotiating buying some land to the back of us and intend, if successful to set up a tea garden for bikers and walkers due to this area steadily increasing in terms of both. Finally, will be using one of the online providers to let our house out as a holiday cottage in the summer. Again, as this seems to be a growing thing round here and potentially will bring in another couple of thousand per year. Maybe more. During holiday lets, will stay with my wife's sister who is also looking to buy a house round here. Our house, as it turns out, still has a commercial license on it due to it once being a bookies (and a knocking shop, I have been told) some decades past. So, running a tea room etc does not require planning permission for change of use. Anyhow, that's the broad direction of travel of me and mine in our local community.

As for coexisting with others off this forum. Absolutely fine with some. Others, mostly of the "woke" liberal variety whose first thought might be to consider the degree of paleness, whiteness and staleness of this or any other community, I would avoid like the plague.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6464
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As the American friend with an arsenal you will be glad to hear there is no way I can bring them with me to the UK. Confused
Being retired I am pretty well set until one or both of my retirement streams of income dry up. In a real decline that might come to pass and if it does a lot of other retired persons will be in the same boat. In a real decline I would use my daughters land (I've passed title to it to them)at a much higher level and could subsist off it if needed. I would also use my arsenal for hunting as well as fishing to support that subsistence. I am planning to install enough solar panels to be free from the grid and fossil fuel backup to it.
Living with the power switch cohort would be pretty bland I think with most arguments settled over a chess board or perhaps darts at the pub. Of course we would all bring our spouses and minor children with us so would be more diverse then the posters here by themselves.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5788
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am financially very comfortable owning my home and renting out 2 former homes to students and academics. We also have significant savings and various pension pots etc.

My job has evaporated and I do not see myself getting another job in IT aged 58, so I am defacto retired. My main personal concern going forward is health care and social care should our health decline. As long as UK remains tory our wealth (unearned or not) will be protected. We are after 7 years slowly integrating into our village, mostly through church contacts and dog walking. I now have time to volunteer my practical skills and help as needed.

Our children are adopted and have learning difficulties and mental health problems. Their future is much less certain, as I cannot see either having the life skills to survive without state or significant social support. We can feed and house them as long as our health remains, but they do not have the knowledge or self restraint to manage the wealth they will eventually inherit.

Our village is reasonably wealthy but rural poverty is largely hidden. Typical southern mix of tory voting social liberals with high level of academics and greenies. Much of the wealth is from the university attracting rich foreigners and high tech foreign investment, very pro EU. Cambridge has the highest inequality index in the country, but only pockets of real poverty.

Powerswitch has changed over the decades as the more argumentative and less tolerant voices have come to drown out the original Liberal mix. The forum has evolved from a practical and predictive one to a much more narrow minded and politically focussed one, but maybe this reflects the negatives in society generally as the sinking tide reveals the stresses and inequalities and deep seated anger from past injustices. We are angry old white men, and increasingly irrelevant. My children are tolerant and colour blind in a way that I could not have imagined 30 years ago, and it will stand them well in the future. [/i]
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8315
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 8:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
As the American friend with an arsenal you will be glad to hear there is no way I can bring them with me to the UK. Confused
Being retired I am pretty well set until one or both of my retirement streams of income dry up. In a real decline that might come to pass and if it does a lot of other retired persons will be in the same boat. In a real decline I would use my daughters land (I've passed title to it to them)at a much higher level and could subsist off it if needed. I would also use my arsenal for hunting as well as fishing to support that subsistence. I am planning to install enough solar panels to be free from the grid and fossil fuel backup to it.
Living with the power switch cohort would be pretty bland I think with most arguments settled over a chess board or perhaps darts at the pub. Of course we would all bring our spouses and minor children with us so would be more diverse then the posters here by themselves.
I could definitely live with you as a neighbor you old gun toting yank... Laughing

But, w'ed have to keep off politics.... Laughing
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6464
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
As the American friend with an arsenal you will be glad to hear there is no way I can bring them with me to the UK. Confused
Being retired I am pretty well set until one or both of my retirement streams of income dry up. In a real decline that might come to pass and if it does a lot of other retired persons will be in the same boat. In a real decline I would use my daughters land (I've passed title to it to them)at a much higher level and could subsist off it if needed. I would also use my arsenal for hunting as well as fishing to support that subsistence. I am planning to install enough solar panels to be free from the grid and fossil fuel backup to it.
Living with the power switch cohort would be pretty bland I think with most arguments settled over a chess board or perhaps darts at the pub. Of course we would all bring our spouses and minor children with us so would be more diverse then the posters here by themselves.
I could definitely live with you as a neighbor you old gun toting yank... Laughing

But, w'ed have to keep off politics.... Laughing

What ? and deprive the rest of the group the entertainment of watching us go at it hammer and tong? Very Happy
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 870
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 12:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Two Thought Experiments Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:


To address this I would like to suggest participation in two thought experiments.

One is practical and is to consider your own unique situation and what you consider are the key factors that will affect your life and how this will be impacted by the reaction of others in your immediate community as descent continues.


This is quite thought provoking. I live in the middle of nowhere, in what looks like an ordinary farmhouse.
But, because I have been a member of PowerSwitch since 2006? The house produces a lot of its own energy(thanks CLV) is heavily insulated (thanks Ken) and can go off grid at the flick of a switch (thanks Adam). Also, because I read the limits to growth (Thanks Mike peplar) all the sh*t happening in the world is no surprise, and has has passed me by.

And because I have used the same principles in how I earn a living, I have inadvertently become quite wealthy by mistake. To be in the top 2% of UK taxpayers was never the plan.

As for the reaction of the local community in the descent, I don't think it will be a problem. My neighbours are small holders, very large family nearby, Know most of the neighbours (except the refugees from England! buying up rural properties to escape mainly Birmingham)

What will put a spanner in the works will be if the Chinese back their currency with gold, which will force the yanks to nuke them.

Potemkin Villager wrote:

The second is theoretical and is to carry out the same exercise imagining your immediate community is composed of the members of this forum rather than your actual neighbours.


I get on with most people and even the ones i don't like I tolerate. But maybe because I live on an island which is 99.54% white with DNA going back to the cavemen. So it's easy for me to work a day in London and enjoy its multiculturalism. I have not seen the place i grew up in and live completely change.

But I would certainly frequent a PowerSwitch pub with its plurality of opinions, often strongly held.
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RevdTess



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2947
Location: Newquay

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When I first joined Powerswitch I was 33 years old, living in a new eco studio apartment in far south London near James. The estate had a shared hot water and heating system, solar panels on the roofs and a communal prototype wood chip fired boiler that never really worked and was replaced by gas - also a sewage reed bed system that got abandoned and redirected back into the mains sewerage.

After that I tried living on a narrowboat which was great fun but I missed a garden. Then I moved to a house in Wales with a massive garden and polytunnel which I tried and failed to keep on top of due to the rampant brambles.

Then I got religious and became a nun, and was put to work in their communal acres of veg allotments. This is the closest I've been to post-apocalypse community with no internet, no news, no luxuries, but lots of hard work weeding and mulching and harvesting and preparing and cooking. I turned 40 there. After a couple of years I left and joined a less strict community instead. They weren't as focused on self-sufficiency though.

After that I started on the road towards becoming a church minister, and I had to live where I was sent, and ended up in a series of houses where there wasn't much point in doing any gardening or eco improvements because I wouldn't be there for long. I'm still in that situation now. I am driving more than ever in my life before because I'm forever travelling around the parishes. And I'm about to turn 50.

So I feel like I've really gone backwards in the eco stakes. Even though the church does talk a lot about eco stuff - looking after creation etc - there's still the overwhelming sense that we don't need to change very much, and everything will be fine if we all do a little bit to buy less plastic. Also most church people are getting on a bit and want comforts not austerities.

If we had a massive collapse, I'd probably end up at the heart of trying to organise community responses, rather than having the personal skills and resources to develop sustainable food, shelter, clothing, energy. Unlike when I was 33, I no longer feel like I have the strength or the energy to choose an austere life of semi-rustic sustainability. I now dream of buying a retirement cottage on the west coast in Scotland or in the Isles, and becoming part of the community there - maybe run an airbnb or something.

As for the dystopian movie that would be living with the powerswitch cohort, I would actually quite relish that. I think most people here would be really supportive of one another in a crisis, even if a bit gruff and grumpy at times. Some of the practical skills and commitment you guys have is amazing to me. I'm more of a priest, bard/musician & technologist than a practical person except perhaps when it comes to growing vegetables, and possibly weaving. I think we'd build an amazing iron age village together.

With regard to woke liberalism, I think we'd all agree that such things won't have much room to flourish when everyone's just trying to survive. As a member of the 'alphabet' community, I like it when people let me live my life and don't hate on me for being different, but honestly when TSHTF it's not the woke 'community' I'd be seeking out, on account of them being largely as useful in a crisis as a wet paper bag.

Because of the way social media works, for possibly the first time in history, our sense of tribal belonging isn't based on where we live or our ethnic culture, but whether we're woke or gammon, millennial or boomer etc. I think that's only possible when we're not living together. If we had to start building a community together in person, I think all that crap would quickly go out of the window, and we'd have to deal with real people again, and not just abstract social concepts and virtue signalling on the internet.

I'm often reminded of that Vin Diesel movie, Pitch Black, where all the nice conformists suddenly become utterly useless in a crisis and the apparent psychopath becomes the only one worth knowing. I have the same respect for the cantankerous characters on PS. At TEOTWAWKI, I'd rock up with spades (and tin whistle) in hand, and follow their lead.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1252
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:


A bunch of opinionated middle aged and elderly men. No women, no kids, no ethnic diversity, probably no sexual diversity. Pale, stale, male - how dull.


Yes Mark guilty as charged! It does get a bit Monty Pythonish on here occasionally! I wish their were more youngsters on and it was a bit less monastic but PS is what it is. On the pension for a few years now, modest savings but many years experience living well on a very modest income and work in the informal economy, diy, food growing etc and two children making their way in the world away from here but interested in returning. Various health issues that definitely put me in coffin dodging territory. Age really is not a lot of fun as I am finding things harder to manage and I guess that I don't really want to admit it.

The main issue I have is the local economy being so dependent on tourism and a splurge of upmarket grandiose holiday home building and an unsustainable development boom. This has led to some living beyond their means on foot of selling sites and construction work and desperate to demonstrate how well they believe they are doing.

Most
of my neighbours, including other long term blowins, will probably prove good people to have around but many are deniers, hyper individualist and expect things to continue much the same going into the future and I make a point of not banging on about PS issues to them once I detect their eyes glazing over.

The posh city tits in the big holiday homes I do not even bother with. If the shit does hit the fan I expect a lot of folk are eyeing their properties up for scavenging and repurposing. I expect they and their gleaming new beamers and discos will not be seen again. Many, including some dependent on them for a living, hope so anyway.

I have the bits and pieces and knowledge to put a small and safe renewable electricity light system together but things will have got very bad if I have to activate it. Funnily enough the increasing crow damage to some of my crops is leading me strongly towards the idea of getting a shot gun permit.

I think what I was wondering about composing this post is if you would be better off with a large group of people well up to speed, but who maybe already “know too much” to effectively co-operate or a large group who currently believe to varying degrees that there is no problem but who might be open to persuasion.....
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careful_eugene



Joined: 26 Jun 2006
Posts: 593
Location: Nottingham UK

PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great idea for a thread.
I'm 53 and live in a suburb of Nottingham, I have a wife and 2 children (18 & 13) and a dog. I feel relatively lucky as I have stable employment and our modest house is paid for. We are relatively fit (gym every morning before work as I have a sedentary job) and have no known underlying health issues, I've got an allotment and we also grow salad leaves, tomatoes & cucumbers in the garden. I'm pretty handy and will tackle most jobs around the house, I have an engineering / steelwork background and have spent the first half of my working life on the shop floor.
In my circle of friends / neighbours I know probably 2 people who understand that it's unlikely that society will continue for the foreseeable future along the same lines as it is now. My concerns are that we will degenerate into lawlessness where the police or private security or whatever we are left with will only really work for the wealthy and the rest of us are just left to sink or swim. We also seem to have a government that is set on dismantling anything that doesn't turn a profit whilst using all means to divide us and set us against each other, I worry for my children.
With regard to the PS group, I'm not a big contributor to this forum although I do read most of the content, I generally get along and can work with most people so I don't see an issue there. I find the whole concept of "woke" bewildering, maybe it's just my age.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 3:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
A bunch of opinionated middle aged and elderly men. No women, no kids, no ethnic diversity, probably no sexual diversity. Pale, stale, male - how dull.


I always read Tess's and Renewable's posts even if I read no others. I'm sexist that way.

Round where I live, it's the women who tend to be the doers.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
........... A bunch of opinionated middle aged and elderly men. .............


I think Chris (Clv) would have something to say about that although the fact that I can only put one name up to question the veracity of the quote does say something.

Mark wrote:
............ No women, .............................. Pale, stale, male - how dull. .............


And Tess and Candy do their best to counter that. We have had quite a few women contribute in the past but I suspect some of the male bullying and infighting that has gone on may have put them off. I hope that they still lurk on the fringes and might be tempted back out again.

As to my thoughts on the OP, in my local situation I can see some of the work that I have been doing over the nearly forty years that I have lived in, well just outside really, Newbury coming to fruition with a flowering of green groups in the town and surrounding towns and villages.

I realised fairly early on in my forty five year journey that one family couldn't live as an island and I have been trying to get my local community to "see the light" and transition to a more sustainable path. This was difficult in the early days as the climate challenge wasn't on the menu and I was one of only a few people who really understood the problems of resource depletion: after all most people still regarded continuous economic growth as desirable and achievable. "Limits to Growth" didn't exist except in a few very educated minds.

Then Peak Oil came on the scene which added a few more people and saw the start of the Transition Town movement. I tried to get that started locally and had a core group of people but we couldn't make headway in a town dominated by big tech companies with a belief that "technology will save us". We had, however, got support from the local Town Council in the form of free use of the Town Hall for meetings so we did have our first official support and the number of "believers" was growing.

As the Transition Town fell by the wayside the local town council set up an Agenda 21 working group and we drew in even more support as we carried out a consultation for three community owned wind turbines to be installed on a ridge on the edge of the town. It was more of a publicity stunt than a serious proposal because of the proximity of housing to the site but surprisingly the closest people to the site were amongst the most enthusiastic.

Although the wind turbines didn't materialise there was another proposal from the Agenda 21 group, now the Sustainability Group, which got a lot further with support from the District council this time and that was the siting of Archimedes Screw water turbines in the centre of the town working on the head between the River Kennet and the Kennet and Avon canal. We actually got as far as quotes for this but in didn't stack up financially at the time: probably ten years ago now. We are now looking at reviving the project as the Reading Micro Hydro Scheme on the Thames is about to start building.

I then joined a group called West Berkshire Green Exchange which was pulling together all the local town and village groups to liaise with the District Council and we managed to get some funding to support those groups. The Greening movement got going about that time and we were able to provide financial support for these groups and the number of people engaged increased still further.

We then hit a set back caused by austerity and the local council reducing the funding of its own Sustainability Department but that was countered soon after by the world's climate scientists finally coming out with some scary news for a change and the likes of Greta Thunburg waking up the youth of the nation. That also spurred on local Climate Action Networks drawing in even more people, anti plastic groups and Extinction Rebellion. The problem now is that there are dozens of different groups all campaigning for similar things and it is difficult to coordinate their actions: too many big fish in little ponds or the Peoples' Group for Climate Revolution v's the Group of the People for Revolution in Climate Action.

At least they realise something must be done although not many realise just what change is really necessary: most of them being of the persuasion that we must bring in all the poor refugees that we can to give them all the advantages that we enjoy whilst, at the same time, reducing our carbon footprint to zero!

Meanwhile I am trying to get more land locally for allotments to encourage the growing of food that has been fostered by the Covid pandemic. Getting that off the ground on a large scale will be one of the things that will have the greatest effect on my future another being getting planning permission for eight further houses on my land to form an ecohamlet. The formation of a wider food growing community will stabilise the area around for the ecohamlet in a distopian future while having the community around our own house will stabilise our future as we get older and need help to live off the land.

Could I visualise other members of this forum being part of our own community? To an extent, yes, but the age range on this forum would prohibit too many joining as we need to be predominantly a younger group to carry the ethos of the group into the future and do the work for the old buggers while we babysit and educate the children.

I think that arguments in person, face to face, would be a lot more civil than those that take place online. There is a lot more understanding when face to face as the level of communication is much deeper and, as has been said before, a lot of our disagreements would not be relevant anymore once TSHTF.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am aware of only one black member, a former neighbour of mine from when I lived in London.
They have only posted a couple of times, but have regularly asked me to post on their behalf, see various discussions concerning PV and other subjects in Ghana.

Male members do seem to greatly outnumber female.

I don't consider race or gender to be relevant in general, under most circumstances.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Then there is our great friend, Sushil, of course.

Again I don't think race or colour is of great interest regarding most of what we discuss here. Location might be of interest in that some tropical locations are going to be badly hit by global warming but the discussion over that has no need to cover race.

Culture and religion might be of interest as different cultures and religions will approach mitigation from slightly different points of view. Reducing population and one parent families, for instance, might be difficult in a Roman Catholic culture or country but then again I don't think many lay Catholics take the Pope's view on contraception anymore.

And do women take a different view point to men? Are we allowed to ask that any longer?
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