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2018 predictions and forecasts.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From MoneyWeek
Quote:
A couple of things to bear in mind in 2018

The new year is off to a roaring start. In the US, markets appear to be in the beginning of what analysts call a melt-up. The economy is close to booming: as analyst Ed Yardeni points out, GDP is rising at an annual rate of about 3% and the phrase “secular stagnation” has barely been mentioned since Donald Trump’s election.


According to MoneyWeek "melt up" is the essential precursor to "melt down". No meltdown, or crash, has ever happened before without its preceding melt up, which could last for a year or more. So they could, or could not, be predicting an economic crash this year.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MoneyWeek is also saying that housing markets across the globe are stalling as cheap money runs out and many houses are unaffordable. Next banking crisis on the way??
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2018 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yus.
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see "meltup" as an oxymoron having watched a lot of snow melt over the years. Cool In financial discussions I prefer " buildup" which is only worrisome if it is pushed by speculators based on "Irrational exuberance" . The current buildup in the US markets is based on the GOP control of congress and the recent tax code changes. The speculators will as usual take this good news too far and overshoot the real value of the underling shares and a correction will most likely follow perhaps on the order of ten to twenty percent. But even a twenty percent correction would leave the market higher then it was on election day.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not surprised that there is the beginnings of a melt up in the DOW given how Trump has screwed his supporter base and given his rich backers a massive tax break. A lot of commentators in the UK, including MoneyWeek, are taking about a 50% "adjustment".
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2018 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
I'm not surprised that there is the beginnings of a melt up in the DOW given how Trump has screwed his supporter base and given his rich backers a massive tax break. A lot of commentators in the UK, including MoneyWeek, are taking about a 50% "adjustment".

There is a lot of misinformation about who benefits from the corporate tax cut. In fact about forty percent of Americans either own stock or have a 401k or other pension fund invested in the market. Some companies such as Microsoft and Google (Alphabet) have as much as seventy percent of their outstanding shares held by "institutions" which are the managers of these accounts. That forty percent covers most of Trumps base and they know it.
The Democratic base includes the forty four percent that pay no Federal "Income" tax" or even get a refund of money beyond what they paid in (average 2015 of $550) and included in that 44% are the 27% that don't pay "ANY federal taxes" because they don't have a job and are not paying into social security or medicare's fifteen percent flat tax adding employee and employer's share. It's hard to cut somebodies taxes if they are already paying zero and receiving government support paid for by real tax payers but they did increase the refundable portion of the child tax credit so that $550 figure will go up in 2018 about $38 / week for each eligible child, $27/week if there is no job paying into taxes.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
Half the world's wealth owned by 5 people.


I predicted the above for 2018. According to this article, it was 8 people earlier this year. By now, it must be nearer 5.

Quote:
In January 2016 only 62 people held as much wealth as one-half of the entire world, but within one year, by 2018, that figure narrowed to 8 people with as much wealth as one-half of the entire world. Stop and think about the implications. Is something about that awry, amiss, or maybe nonsensical?

Wealth concentration is happening so rapidly that it is feasible that someday soon one man* will hold more wealth than half the humans in the world.


Ken, you won't like the title of the book. Laughing

* 2019
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

emordnilap wrote:
......Ken, you won't like the title of the book. Laughing


You're right there Em! There is nothing elite about a bunch of stupid, but canny, I will admit, kleptomaniacs who can't see that their behaviour is killing the system that supports their wealth.
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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
......Ken, you won't like the title of the book. Laughing


You're right there Em! There is nothing elite about a bunch of stupid, but canny, I will admit, kleptomaniacs who can't see that their behaviour is killing the system that supports their wealth.
You appear to make the mistake of thinking the amount of wealth in the world is a fixed figure when it is in fact growing rapidly. The fact that the Googles and Microsoft's of the world sell millions of units of product to millions of customers at prices they gladly pay dose not mean the holders of Google and Microsoft stock are kleptomaniacs or that they have stolen any wealth from anyone.
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