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2018 predictions and forecasts.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7191
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:52 pm    Post subject: 2018 predictions and forecasts. Reply with quote

With 2017 virtually over, it is time perhaps to predict what the coming year will bring.

I will start with my usual prediction that the coming year will be rather similar to the previous year, but a bit worse.

In more detail.

No huge or sudden climate change, but an increase in extreme weather events both at home and overseas.

An increase in political instability in the ME, with more revolts, uprisings and coups.

An increase in terrorism in the UK.

Oil prices to increase to $80 for Brent/$70 for WTI.
Natural gas prices to increase by at least 20%.

Brexit talks to drag on, with both leavers and remainers unhappy.

Hinckley C to be further delayed and increase in cost.

An inquiry into the Grenfell tower fire to reach the conclusion that another inquiry is needed.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A significant stand off between The Yank Axis and the Chinese/Russian axis. Possibly centering around North Korea or Iran.

Nations will be forced to pick a side.

I know which side I am on.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5249
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Dec 31, 2017 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brent tops $100 and closes around $90.
Kim un dumb gets assassinated by one of his generals or Seal teem five.
The Democrats in the US make gains in the midterm election but only take one house.
The witch hunt continues all year.
Continued chaos throughout the Mid East from bombings to riots and massacres.
The snow in Vermont will all be melted by May 15th. Smile
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 573
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

2018 here in Northern Australia already.

Here it will be hot and wet and then hot and dry later in the year.

I see a different outcome of the Kim North Korea thing. No changes in government but I see the non-proliferation treaty failing and states in response to North Korea getting their own nukes. Personally I don’t know why Australia doesn’t already have them. Probably the last vestiges of the international order still have a hold on the Australian government.

Terrorism will increase in Australian cities also with ‘mentally ill’ refugees as the perpetrators. They will of course just happen to be Muslim as well but the two will not be related so the mainstream media will tell us. It is after all very stressful to live in one of the richest countries in the world with everything paid for you by the government.

Wider afield resources will continue to deplete oil and just about everything else will slowly rise in price but with the advent of electric cars this will not be as marked. Children will continue to question why they don’t appear to be as wealthy as their parents. The Middle East will continue to be a quagmire and gradually collapse as the medium level powers of Iran Saudi and Turkey along with their larger backers continue to jockey for influence. Israel sits pretty with their enemies killing each other. Saudi will try to sell off Aramco to any sucker which will buy it. I for one will not be getting shares.

I hope wind and solar continue to grow in importance in Europe and other places as they have in the past year. Energy storage and HVDC links should also be developed. I would like the see the UK pursuing tidal basin power as well in the longer term with schemes along the Severn, Wash and Thames estuaries which will also double as protection against the rising seas.

I am not sure that any of the Robert Erlich predictions will come true in 2018 of mass starvation but these will happen in the medium term. Maybe 30 years.

I don’t there will be any major changes this year but just more of the drip drip of continually increasing prices and less availability of things. For instance our baby milk that our toddler likes is being bought out of supermarkets by Chinese tourists who sell it back home in China because the stuff there is not good or their country just is too corrupt or unable to product the stuff in high enough quality.

With the decline in the old United Nations order you might get more of a multipolar world. I think you will also get a rise in what you might call ‘gangster’ governments in which countries will act increasingly in their own interest and with less regard for others. You could argue that the big powers have been doing this for years Russia snuffing out litvinenko and America snuffing out bin laden. I think though smaller countries will be getting in on the act. Terrorism will become an accepted part of international diplomacy. Trust between counties will decline partly as a result of Brexit. International fraud will increase greatly. Treaties will be disregarded increasingly.
I would like the see the EU split roughly into two. A looser northern block based around the North Sea and energy linkage across there and a Southern Club Med block more along the lines of the existing EU that will quickly go bankrupt.

I think I have said enough.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
A significant stand off between The Yank Axis and the Chinese/Russian axis. Possibly centering around North Korea or Iran.

Nations will be forced to pick a side.

I know which side I am on.

Is that China/Russia?
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think adam2 is closest, but I don't think there will be a second grenfell inquiry. We already know the basic conclusion which is not to wrap a tower block up in an accelerant.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also not to drill holes through concrete walls that act as fire breaks, not to route gas pipes unprotected down the only staircase in the building, fit linked smoke detectors, etc. The conclusion that won't be reached will be that profit was put before safety systematically for a generation in the management of social housing in London and most of the rest of the country.
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Lurkalot



Joined: 08 Mar 2014
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not going to make any predictions of my own , I don't feel qualified to.
Recently I went away for a little while and on the tv in the room there was a choice of sickly sweet Christmas films or news channels . The news channels included Bloomberg and CNBC which I don't normally watch( partly because the corporate banker type of speech they use I find a bit grating) but this time I did watch their predictions for 2018 and the economies. For those who don't know the format there is a band at the bottom with stocks and commodity prices , a text section on the right hand side of the screen and the larger section with a presenter. There were a few stories that predicted problems but on the whole the interviews and predictions concentrated on the positives , growth , investment and so on. One prediction was oil to settle around the $60 mark with US shale playing a role in preventing the price going much higher.
I have to say I took it with a pinch of salt probably being a little less optimistic than the presenters and interviewees .
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another major financial crash.

Several 'once-in-a-hundred years' record-breaking weather disasters.

Half the world's wealth owned by 5 people.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:

I would like the see the EU split roughly into two. A looser northern block based around the North Sea and energy linkage across there and a Southern Club Med block more along the lines of the existing EU that will quickly go bankrupt.


I think an EU split in 3 would be better, western europe N/S as you said but a separate block for eastern europe that is quickly ejected from the "greater" EU as it becomes increasingly obvious and difficult to hide that their values just don't tie in well enough to western democracy.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EU split into 27 + UK would be better.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1079
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
EU split into 27 + UK would be better.


& the UK to split into 4....?
& England to split into regions....?
& regions to split into cities.....?
& cities to be ruled by local politicians/warlords....?
We've been here before - it was called the Medieval era....

Surely we'd be better maintaining ties/alliances in these uncertain times, rather than weakening them...?

2018 will be the year of waiting for 29th March 2019....
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We can certainly maintain alliances but ties can constrain one especially when all around in changing rapidly and likely to fall apart anyway (Climate Change, financial crashes, etc).
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1079
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
We can certainly maintain alliances but ties can constrain one especially when all around in changing rapidly and likely to fall apart anyway (Climate Change, financial crashes, etc).


In my opinion, Climate Change can only be addressed by international agreements, regulation and co-operation....
The financial services industry also needs an international approach, to try to prevent money being hidden in tax havens and to address the myriad of other scams/loopholes etc.

The weaker the alliances, the more people get away with, the worse it is for the collective....
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it's easier to get 27 countries to agree and then go to a negotiation as one than it is to just go to the negotiation in the first place?

Anyway what I was saying was that the problems caused by Climate Change, migration for instance, and financial crashes, loss of British income to finance the rapacious financial subsidy demands of 25 or so European nations, will cause the EU to break apart anyway.

If, no when, Britain leaves the EU it might influence most of those nations to be a bit more realistic in their demands as there will not be nearly as much cash to spread around. Or should that be bribe then to take a fair share of the mass financial migration burden.
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