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Could this see the end of America as a Super Power?

 
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 4:45 pm    Post subject: Could this see the end of America as a Super Power? Reply with quote

On a lighthearted note, this article caught my attention.

I'm not in anyway anti-American (anti-Bush yes, anti-American no) but if future energy shocks do see a powerdown situation then America's grip on the world might just come to an end.....because they'll be too knackered to do much else!

See what you think.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4697519.stm
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Britain (and to a lesser extent Europe) was the superpower of the 19th century.
America was the superpower of the 20th century.
We are yet to see how the 21st century will shape out but I don't expect America to command the same dominance they have in the past.
Maybe Europe, maybe China/Asia?
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dudley



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm reading The City in Mind by James Kunstler now. In his chapter on Atlanta he says that everyone uses air conditioning all the time and that a car is necessary to go anywhere (and he gives a history of A.C.). Someone who had lived there told me the same. Peak oil doesn't bode well for cities in the sunbelt Confused. The book has separate chapters on different cities, including London (which I haven't read yet).
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kevincarter



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 3:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, sooner than later America will step down from world power, thinking that it will always remain there is as absurd as thinking we'll keep ever growing. Empires fall. All of them. Thre is nothing wrong with that. I just would like americans not to take it in a traumatic way.

The next world power? Probably no one for a long time.
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isenhand



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 6:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Britain (and to a lesser extent Europe) was the superpower of the 19th century.
America was the superpower of the 20th century.
We are yet to see how the 21st century will shape out but I don't expect America to command the same dominance they have in the past.
Maybe Europe, maybe China/Asia?


Maybe the taleban? Sad
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DamianB
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This might: BBC News

Quote:
China has revalued its currency, the yuan, for the first time in a decade, in a move that could placate criticism from abroad, especially the US.

The new rules scrap the yuan's peg to the dollar, and tie it to a basket of currencies, the central bank said.

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grinu



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 21, 2005 10:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

China could probably make a strong case. They've also recently released a joint statement (with Russia) emphasizing their plans for the world's future.

China has been quietly buying up western commodities for years now, and has recently upped the ante by bidding for major US oil companies (which funnily enough own reserves based in Asia). China is also the base for lots of manufacturing etc.etc. whilst the west is now predominantly service based, paying China massive amounts of currency for goods. China is also keeping the dollar afloat by virtue of the amount of discounted trade it does with the US.
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DamianB
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2005 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's the beginning of the end for the dollar. Once the dollar starts to slide, US hegemony will follow:

Quote:
By Jim Sinclair
JSMineset.com
Thursday, July 21, 2005

Today the Chinese opted to float the yuan within a specific range
against a basket of currencies, effectively breaking its tie solely
with the U.S. dollar.

The Chinese have not yet disclosed the constituent items and
percentages of those items in the basket of currencies which the
yuan will float against.

This is an undeniable move away from the dollar and will effect the
thinking of those central banks that have already diversified or are
preparing to diversify out of complete reliance on the dollar as a
reserve currency. This is what gave the markets the smell of a
bottom in gold and a top in the dollar yesterday.

The most important implication of this move is that it reduces the
need for China to purchase U.S. Treasuries in the amounts
accumulated in the past. We will be able to evaluate this
development more precisely as soon as we know the percentages of the
constituents in the currency basket.

This is bad news for the TIC Report, so it is a weakening dollar
value constituents item. This makes U.S. federal borrowing more
difficult, turning it back toward the inland credit markets, forcing
rates higher on the intermediate-range U.S. bonds. That is
incorrectly considered dollar-positive.

I conclude that the move by China is therefore neutral for the
dollar at present but in a short time it will be recognized as
negative. Prior to this important event, the spin had many convinced
that everything was dollar-positive. Now that has changed to
neutral.

So I see this strengthening the recent lows for the gold price. At
the same time, the recent highs of the U.S. dollar now become more
significant as resistance and will be viewed as a probable top range
should they be revisited.

My bottom line is that gold will trade to $480 and then $518 to
$529. The dollar will return in time to the .8050 level and much
lower levels thereafter.

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grinu



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2005 9:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

'Full text' of China-Russia Joint Statement on 21st century world order

By BBC Jul 2, 2005, 19:00 GMT

"Full text" of the China-Russia Joint Statement regarding the international order of the 21st century, released in Moscow on 1 July, carried by official Chinese news agency Xinhua (New China News Agency)

Moscow, 1 July: Chinese President Hu Jintao and Russian President Putin signed the Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation Regarding the International Order of the 21st Century in Moscow on 1 July. The full text of the joint statement follows:

Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation Regarding the International Order of the 21st Century

The PRC [People's republic of China] and the Russian Federation (hereinafter referred to as the "two sides" for short), taking the opportunity of the 60th anniversary of the victory in World War II and the 60th anniversary of the founding of the United Nations,

Acting on the basis of the historical responsibility for world peace and development in their capacities as permanent members of the United Nations Security Council,

Strictly abiding by the propositions on building a multipolar world and a new international order as enunciated in the Joint Statement of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation Regarding Global Multipolarity and the Establishment of a New International Order of 23 April 1997,

Confirming the strategic cooperative partnership between the two sides as reiterated in the Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness, Friendliness, and Cooperation of the People's Republic of China and the Russian Federation of 16 July 2001,

Issue the following statement:

1. The world today is undergoing historic changes. The process of building a new international order will be complicated and lengthy.

Peace and development remain the main theme of the times. The phenomena of imbalance and conflict still exist in the course of development of global multipolarity and economic globalization, which are an important trend in the current stage of development of mankind. Relationships of interdependence among countries have been greatly strengthened.

The central task for mankind in the 21st century is to safeguard peace, stability, and security for all of mankind and to achieve comprehensive and coordinated development under the conditions of equality, safeguarding sovereignty, mutual respect, mutual benefit, and ensuring the development prospects of future generations.

Mankind has opportunities to jointly achieve the aforementioned objectives and also is faced with numerous global challenges such as international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the disparity between rich and poor, environmental degradation, infectious diseases, organized transnational crimes, and drug trafficking.

2. The problems facing mankind can only be solved on the basis of universally recognized principles and norms of international law and in a fair and rational world order. Countries in the world should strictly observe the principles of mutual respect for each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality, mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence.

The right of countries to choose their development paths in light of their own conditions, equally participate in international affairs, and seek development on an equal footing should be fully guaranteed. Differences and disputes must be settled peacefully without the adoption of unilateral action and coercive policy and without resort to the threat of force or the use of force.

The peoples of all countries should be allowed to decide the affairs of their own countries, and world affairs should be decided through dialogue and consultation on a multilateral and collective basis. The international community should thoroughly renounce the mentality of confrontation and alignment, should not pursue the right to monopolize or dominate world affairs, and should not divide countries into a leading camp and a subordinate camp.

3. The United Nations is the world's most universal, representative, and authoritative international organization, and its role and functions are irreplaceable. The United Nations should play a leading role in international affairs and serve as the core for establishing and executing the basic norms of international law. UN peacekeeping operations should be in compliance with the aims and principles of the United Nations Charter. Relevant resolutions of the Security Council must be strictly observed, and cooperation between the United Nations on the one hand and regional and sub-regional organizations on the other should be carried out. The United Nations should play a greater role in the study of global economic and development issues.

Reforms of the United Nations should be aimed at strengthening its leading role in international affairs, improving its efficiency, and enhancing its potential for dealing with new challenges and threats. Reforms should be based on the principle of achieving consensus through consultation and should fully embody the common interests of the vast numbers of member-countries.

4. The positive significance of the process of globalization lies in drawing on unprecedented vibrant economic and trade relations and exceptionally broad access to open information to promote global economic development. On the other hand, the development of globalization is greatly uneven, and the gap between developed countries and regions on the one hand and other countries and regions in the world on the other is widening. To ensure the sound development of the process of globalization, coordination and mutually beneficial cooperation among countries and regions should be strengthened; all discrimination in economic relations should be eliminated; the gap between rich and poor should be narrowed; and common prosperity should be promoted through expanding and deepening economic, trade, and scientific and technological exchanges.

The international community should establish an economic and trade regime that is comprehensive and widely accepted and that operates through the means of holding negotiations on an equal footing, discarding the practice of applying pressure and sanctions to coerce unilateral economic concessions, and bringing into play the roles of global and regional multilateral organizations and mechanisms.

5. Developing countries, which account for the majority of the world's population, are an important force in safeguarding world peace and development. The international community should pay close attention to the issue of eliminating the gap in the development levels of developing countries and developed countries. The way to resolve the issue is, first and foremost, to ensure that all members of the international community can equally take advantage of the social, economic, scientific and technological, informational, cultural, and other opportunities stemming from globalization to strengthen mutually beneficial North-South and South-South cooperation and to achieve common development. The countries concerned should discharge the relevant duties that they shoulder in the United Nations and within other multilateral frameworks.

6. Human rights are universal. Countries should respect the human rights and basic freedoms enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, promote efforts to guarantee and safeguard human rights in light of their own conditions and traditions, and settle their differences through dialogue and cooperation on the basis of equality and mutual respect. International human rights protections should be based on the principles of firmly safeguarding the sovereign equality of all countries and not interfering in each other's internal affairs.

7. The histories and traditions of multi-ethnic countries must be respected, and so must their efforts to promote harmonious coexistence and common development for various ethnic groups and to safeguard national unity. Any actions that are aimed at dividing sovereign countries and inciting hatred among ethnic groups are unacceptable. No social and political systems and models should be imposed from the outside without regard for the objective process of social development in sovereign countries.

8. The diversity of cultures and civilizations in the world should become the basis for mutual enrichment rather than mutual conflict. The main trend of the world today is not towards a "clash of civilizations"; rather, it underscores the imperative of engaging in global cooperation. The diversity of civilizations in the world and the diversification of development models should be respected and safeguarded. Differences in the historical backgrounds, cultural traditions, social and political systems, value concepts, and development paths of countries should not become an excuse for interfering in the internal affairs of other countries. Different civilizations should conduct dialogue, exchange experiences, draw on each other's experiences, learn from each other's strong points to make up for their own shortcomings, and seek common progress on the basis of mutual respect and tolerance. Cultural exchanges should be increased in order to establish relations of friendship and trust among countries.

9. The two sides call on the international community to make joint efforts to establish a new security framework on the basis of mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality, and cooperation. The framework should have the universally recognized norms of international relations as its political foundation and mutually beneficial cooperation and common prosperity as its economic foundation, and should be built on the basis of respecting the equal security rights of all countries. Dialogue, consultation, and negotiation on an equal footing should become the means for settling conflicts and safeguarding peace.

The two sides support the preservation and consolidation of global strategic stability, as well as the legal system and the multilateral process of arms control, disarmament, and nonproliferation. The two sides are in favour of facilitating the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty as soon as possible and of promoting efforts to strengthen the universality and effectiveness of such arms control and nonproliferation treaties as the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Convention on the Prohibition of Biological Weapons, and the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. The two sides call for the peaceful use of outer space and for the prevention of the deployment of weapons and an arm race in outer space. Relevant international legal documents should be drawn up for this purpose.

The two sides believe that in the face of new threats and challenges, further effective measures should be taken to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, their delivery carriers, and relevant materials. The two sides are determined to cooperate closely within the framework of relevant international organizations and forums and to expand cooperation with other countries. The issue of proliferation should be resolved through political, diplomatic, and international cooperation within the framework of international law.

The two sides will promote the implementation of the initiative to establish a UN-led global system to deal with new threats and challenges on the basis of the United Nations Charter and other relevant norms of international law. International cooperation should be strengthened within the new security framework in a joint effort to explore ways to cut off the sources of financing and social foundations for terrorism and to eradicate terrorist and extremist ideas - namely, the trends of thought of violence and ethnic, national, and religious hatred. No double standards should be adopted on this issue. All members of the international community should resolutely condemn the gross violations of human rights by terrorists and terrorist organizations. Terrorist organizations must be prevented from acquiring and using weapons of mass destruction and their delivery vehicles.

10. Regional integration is an important characteristic of the development of the current international situation. The two sides pointed out that multilateral regional organizations established on the basis of regional openness, cooperation on an equal footing, and non-targeting of other countries are playing a positive role in the process of shaping a new international order. In the economic sphere, regional initiatives should promote greater openness and effectiveness in trade communities. In the sphere of regional security, the establishment of security cooperation mechanisms that take into account the interests of all parties, are open, and are not directed at other countries has fundamental significance. The two sides support organizations of regional integration in their efforts to establish lateral ties and to create an atmosphere of mutual trust and cooperation.

11. The new type of state-to-state relationship between China and Russia is making a major contribution to building a new international order. The practice of Sino-Russian relations attests to the vitality of the principles enunciated in this statement. At the same time, it shows that good-neighbourly, friendly, and cooperative relations can be effectively developed and various problems solved on this basis.

The two countries are determined to make unremitting joint efforts with other countries concerned to build a world that is developed and harmonious and to become important constructive forces in a secure global system.

12. Building a rational and fair international order in the 21st century is a process of constantly seeking positions and decisions that are acceptable to all. A new international order can become truly universal only if all members of the international community endorse its aims and norms.

The two sides call on countries in the world to engage in extensive dialogue on the issue of the international order of the 21st century. To a great extent, the future of the world, the progress of mankind, and the ability to deal with challenges and threats depend on the outcome of this dialogue.

[Signed by] Hu Jintao

President of the People's Republic of China

Vladimir Putin

President of the Russian Federation

[Names and titles appear side by side on the same line.]

[Dated] 1 July 2005, in Moscow

Source: Xinhua news agency domestic service, Beijing, in Chinese 1518 gmt 1 Jul 05

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peaky



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 22, 2005 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

From point 1:

"Mankind has opportunities to jointly achieve the aforementioned objectives and also is faced with numerous global challenges such as international terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the disparity between rich and poor, environmental degradation, infectious diseases, organized transnational crimes, and drug trafficking.
"

Interestingly, no mention of resource depletion and especially no mention of energy use.
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snow hope



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PostPosted: Thu Aug 04, 2005 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no doubt in my mind China is well positioned to become the next super-power if globalisation continues. They manufacture more goods and products than anywhere else it appears. If globalisation doesn't continue due to PO, then it all becomes irrelevant - there will be no more super-powers.

Energy is not mentioned because no Governments are really mentioning it. It almost seems to be that the most important subject is the one subject nobody is allowed to mention.... some reverse logic in there somewhere....
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