PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

US shale oil production is plummeting
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> General Discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7104
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 10:48 pm    Post subject: US shale oil production is plummeting Reply with quote

US shale oil production is plummeting. Here's a good explanation of how all of that is happening. It's a powerful cocktail that involves equal portions of short-termism, opportunism and wishful thinking.

Cue the fat lady.

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2019/07/28/In-the-Oil-Business-What-Goes-Up-ALWAYS-Comes-Down
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:22 am    Post subject: Re: US shale oil production is plummeting Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
US shale oil production is plummeting. Here's a good explanation of how all of that is happening. It's a powerful cocktail that involves equal portions of short-termism, opportunism and wishful thinking.

Cue the fat lady.

https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/2019/07/28/In-the-Oil-Business-What-Goes-Up-ALWAYS-Comes-Down


Plummeting! Sounds bad. Again. Peak oil? Could be. Again.

Everyone remember the plummeting back in 2015? Yup..plummeting. Again.

Blogger saying...stuff wrote:

Its that "type curve" EUR's, derived from shale oil company "surveys" and poor decline curve methodology used by the EIA and the United States Geological Society (USGS) to estimate technically recoverable reserves in the Permian Basin, are now clearly overstated. All those reserve estimates need another second-look and a major adjustment. Downward. America does NOT have the remaining oil resource reserves that we are being led to believe we have.


We can determine from this paragraph the following:
1) Blogger has never filed out an EIA survey
2) Because of 1) blogger misstates what is collected in the EIA survey, i.e. the EIA does not collect individual well production data
3) Blogger doesn't know the difference between a poor decline curve methodology and a good one
4) Blogger doesn't know the difference (or quality difference) between the RTA utilized by the USGS and EIA
5) Blogger assumes second looks generate downward revisions in TRR estimates, when the USGS revises in both directions on second looks
6) Blogger doesn't know the difference between reserves and resources

Those are just the ones I can list without thinking about it.

Long live bloggers! They make us professionals look DAMN good!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7104
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah.. right.... Yadda Yadda.

Care to contest the actual numbers?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Yeah.. right.... Yadda Yadda.

Care to contest the actual numbers?


The blogger involved didn't post numbers to defend. They just put up pretty waterfall graphs.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7104
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, we can take that as a no then
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5292
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The numbers are here.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5558
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/31/blackrock-lost-90bn-investing-in-fossil-fuel-companies-report-finds

Quote:
BlackRock, the world’s biggest investor, has lost an estimated $90bn over the last decade by ignoring the serious financial risk of investing in fossil fuel companies, according to economists.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition

Quote:
Coal, oil and gas get more than $370bn (£305bn) a year in support, compared with just $100bn for renewables, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) report found. Just 10-30% of the fossil fuel subsidies would pay for a global transition to clean energy, the IISD said.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
So, we can take that as a no then


You can take it any way you'd like. You claim to want to discuss numbers. You have no numbers to discuss.

You don't even put forward a general idea to discuss, particulars from the blog, anything. DO you discuss stuff, or just throw out a challenge unrelated to the information at hand and when confusion is expressed over your lack of specificity, declare victory?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
The numbers are here.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W


John didn't say that. John didn't even let me agree that those who do these numbers for a living (unlike random peak oil oriented bloggers) show yet another decrease in US oil production, no different than they have in the past.

Do you think that John even knows that the weekly numbers you reference have a disconnect between the graph and the data? Do you think John knows that the same organization isn't forecasting the high for 2019 to be lower than any number on that sheet? Do you think John knows the difference between how those numbers are collected (the EIA doesn't have real time data within a month long time frame and is forced to estimate, and those estimates are where the devil gets into the details) and the final answer?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/31/blackrock-lost-90bn-investing-in-fossil-fuel-companies-report-finds

Quote:
BlackRock, the world’s biggest investor, has lost an estimated $90bn over the last decade by ignoring the serious financial risk of investing in fossil fuel companies, according to economists.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition

Quote:
Coal, oil and gas get more than $370bn (£305bn) a year in support, compared with just $100bn for renewables, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) report found. Just 10-30% of the fossil fuel subsidies would pay for a global transition to clean energy, the IISD said.


That'll teach the amateurs to stay out of a business they don't fully understand. My firm conviction is that most folks, including investors, just don't understand the underlying stochastic nature of the business, and therefore can't do proper risk adjusting for squat.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11310
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
.........
That'll teach the amateurs to stay out of a business they don't fully understand. My firm conviction is that most folks, including investors, just don't understand the underlying stochastic nature of the business, and therefore can't do proper risk adjusting for squat.


That would suit me fine. Leave investment in oil to the oil companies alone. That would cut investment in oil right down which is what we need for the environment.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
.........
That'll teach the amateurs to stay out of a business they don't fully understand. My firm conviction is that most folks, including investors, just don't understand the underlying stochastic nature of the business, and therefore can't do proper risk adjusting for squat.


That would suit me fine. Leave investment in oil to the oil companies alone. That would cut investment in oil right down which is what we need for the environment.


Well, it would cut oil and gas investment certainly. That would then have a detrimental effect on production. Companies would have a difficult time growing their production at anywhere near the rates they have been since the current boom began.

But oil and gas would still be there, and if demand doesn't decrease commiserate with less supply, prices will increase and presto! The companies will be able to bootstrap back into some semblance of growth. That is the growth model I am most familiar with, bootstrapping company production in a low price environment. Cut my teeth on doing so much with so little, that one day I graduated to being able to do everything with nothing! An oilfield joke in tough times.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5292
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The reality is that at current prices drilling and production are holding steady or slightly increasing. Let prices rise and activity and production will increase after a time lag between price increase and resultant increased production.
If instead we get a carbon tax ,or other negative factor on production, activity will decline and the price at the pump will rise. If the government gets into it with their usual inefficiency this could snowball into a doubling or tripping of fuel prices.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 313
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
The reality is that at current prices drilling and production are holding steady or slightly increasing.


I know that. You know that. The information you provided from the EIA knows it. Remnants of the peak oil cheering section and a blogger unfamiliar with any of the technical aspects involved in this conversation not withstanding.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Let prices rise and activity and production will increase after a time lag between price increase and resultant increased production.
If instead we get a carbon tax ,or other negative factor on production, activity will decline and the price at the pump will rise. If the government gets into it with their usual inefficiency this could snowball into a doubling or tripping of fuel prices.


Bring it on. US E&Ps will love it.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1114
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2019 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You can bury your head in the shale all you like, but it will run out, or become uneconomic one day...
Maybe in a month, a year, a decade or longer...., but it will....

Then Trump (or the next one) will have you all off to the Arctic.....
Energy Secretary Rick Perry’s has the National Petroleum Council revisit its previous study of the resource potential of the Arctic:
https://www.npc.org/

Meanwhile, the planet we all share suffers.....
Like the rainforest disappearing under the watch of Bolsonaro....

I hoped we'd see the error of our ways before it's too late....
But there are too many Trumps, Bolsonaros, RGRs about...
It breaks my heart.


Last edited by Mark on Tue Aug 27, 2019 3:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> General Discussion All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group