PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

AI will save us! Oil will last forever!

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> General Discussion
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
Posts: 249

PostPosted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:48 pm    Post subject: AI will save us! Oil will last forever! Reply with quote

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3n8txX3144
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 7:34 pm    Post subject: Re: AI will save us! Oil will last forever! Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3n8txX3144


Quite a turnabout claim for any peak oiler types.

The video was pretty thin on anything oily.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5461
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While intelligence, artificial or not, can reduce waste and improve efficiency it can never replace the the major part of the energy needed to accomplish the base work required for our civilization to operate. Food still has to be grown then harvested ,transported to processing plants, then shipped to markets and then to the consumers home. No supper idea will suddenly put food in your freezer without energy use or heat your house for that matter. And that is just two examples of how we use energy, there are many more.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2020 11:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
While intelligence, artificial or not, can reduce waste and improve efficiency it can never replace the the major part of the energy needed to accomplish the base work required for our civilization to operate.


Sure. But nuclear power can.

I have always found it amusing that Hubbert solved the problem he outlined in his seminal peak oil work in 1956. Even dropped the solution right there in the title, and peak oilers just ignored it all.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Food still has to be grown then harvested ,transported to processing plants, then shipped to markets and then to the consumers home. No supper idea will suddenly put food in your freezer without energy use or heat your house for that matter. And that is just two examples of how we use energy, there are many more.


Fortunate then that with nuke power, you can do all those things. Hubbert was pretty clever seeing all this before legions of others ignored it in their rush to play games in the doom fantasy league.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5461
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What does nuclear power have to due with Artificial intelligence? And you're going to need one long extension cord to connect your nuclear power plant to that corn or wheat combine in Iowa. Razz
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11473
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
While intelligence, artificial or not, can reduce waste and improve efficiency it can never replace the the major part of the energy needed to accomplish the base work required for our civilization to operate. Food still has to be grown then harvested ,transported to processing plants, then shipped to markets and then to the consumers home. No supper idea will suddenly put food in your freezer without energy use or heat your house for that matter. And that is just two examples of how we use energy, there are many more.


Food used to be supplied from farms a cart pull away from where is was produced and we will have to get back to that paradigm, or at least somewhere near it to achieve the savings in CO2 emissions required. We have replaced human labour with oil in agriculture and we could reduce the amount of oil used by getting more people involved and moving the production of salads and vegetables closer to its point of consumption. Using more people would also soak up the unemployed from increasing use of automation in a much smaller industrial production base.

If the current intercontinental food supply is required for the future we will have to start replacing our ports now with floating pontoons to allow for the inevitable sea level rise which our governments and economists are locking us into with their acceptance of a 1.5C increase in temperature. On the other hand it might be a waste of time and money as sea level rise will cause a worldwide reduction in food production and probably, if the recent past is anything to go by, a curtailment of food exports as exporting countries keep their previous exports for home consumption.

Nuclear power requires a very high tech supply chain and a complex industrial base for that chain. Given that complexity is very fragile, relying on something with such a long lifespan as nuclear power would be very dangerous for our successors. But then, as RGR has often said, do we give a damn about our successors. Proponents of nuclear power obviously do not.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
What does nuclear power have to due with Artificial intelligence? And you're going to need one long extension cord to connect your nuclear power plant to that corn or wheat combine in Iowa. Razz


Your angle with AI was that it doesn't replace energy needed. I was just pointing out that energy availability isn't the issue, for all the items you mentioned.

And please, while the old idiot-doomers might have been able to play stupid about the electrification of transport, light, medium and heavy trucking, let alone mining and agricultural equipment, you know better than thinking there is an extension cord involved.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11473
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
... you know better than thinking there is an extension cord involved.


Could be. A catenary wire overhead power system could be used for the main haul road with local manoeuvre powered by batteries.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5461
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While we now have battery packs that move a light vehicle 300 miles or more for example the Tesla Model 3 with a 75KWH battery pack a large farm tractor today can have an engine that cranks out (and needs) 272 KW so consumes 2720KWH in a short farmers day. That is a battery 36 times the size and weight of the Tesla's pack.
It will be awhile before battery powered tractors cause the diesel tractors to be parked.
https://www.deere.com/en/tractors/row-crop-tractors/row-crop-8-family/8rx-370-tractor/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11473
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking of mining and road transport vehicles. I saw a picture of a road in Germany, I think it was, which had an overhead line for electric trucks.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 8:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
While we now have battery packs that move a light vehicle 300 miles or more for example the Tesla Model 3 with a 75KWH battery pack a large farm tractor today can have an engine that cranks out (and needs) 272 KW so consumes 2720KWH in a short farmers day. That is a battery 36 times the size and weight of the Tesla's pack.
It will be awhile before battery powered tractors cause the diesel tractors to be parked.
https://www.deere.com/en/tractors/row-crop-tractors/row-crop-8-family/8rx-370-tractor/


There is no requirement that the first transition for tractors can only be batteries. Hydrogen and CNG jump to mind as far better first steps, if only because there will always be a place for the density of liquid fuels (long range air transport being another). I don't think I'd volunteer a fuel cell powered tractor at this point, if only because tractors like to burn stuff, and changing them over to electric seems a bit of a stretch when you can probably do a motor modification to combust something else...like NG, hydrogen or methanol.

Just as the market figured out the solution to peak oil, I'm betting it'll handle the agricultural transition to a brave new world just fine.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5461
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hydrogen and CNG are not AI they are just alternative fuels one of which is a fossil fuel. As agriculture takes a relatively small fraction out of each barrel of oil we consume I expect it's continued use well after we have turned away from using it for daily commuting.
There are easier nuts to crack so we might as well crack those first.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2020 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Hydrogen and CNG are not AI they are just alternative fuels one of which is a fossil fuel.


I know. Again, I was addressing your point that AI doesn't solve energy issues, and my point that there isn't much ado about energy issues. Energy COSTS maybe, but that something different than availability.

vtsnowedin wrote:

As agriculture takes a relatively small fraction out of each barrel of oil we consume I expect it's continued use well after we have turned away from using it for daily commuting.
There are easier nuts to crack so we might as well crack those first.


I agree. Tractors will get diesel for as long as they want it, the rest of the world has already begun to flex in terms of fuel usage for personal transport.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> General Discussion All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group