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Brexit process
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7150
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
Surely she can't be followed by some creature even worse?


Whomever replaces her is bound to be regarded as even worse by a significant minority.
Suppose we get a true brexiter who actually wants to leave the EU. They will be regarded as "even worse" by those who want to remain in, or at least partly in. Any such leader will probably have the same problem of the house voting against leaving.

Alternatively the new leader might favour staying in the EU in all but name. Calling it Brexit but remaining subject to most EU laws and regulations, simple replacing "ever closer union" with "ever closer alignment"
Any such leader would be regarded as "even worse" by those who want to leave properly.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9607
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Johnson has a similar relationship to truth and honesty as does Trump. If he calls a snap election he could regain a lot of support from Brexit party by calling for no deal exit. However, he will have his fingers crossed behind his back. He will do whatever is best for Johnson at any given moment.


That will end badly for him, and I think he knows it. That is why it is going to be very interesting to see exactly what his campaign message is, both for the leadership and a subsequent general election.

The time for fudging your position on brexit is over, at least for anybody who is contending for power. Anyone who tries that tactic will not get elected.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


Agreed. But it is not at all obvious how that is going to happen.
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Blue Peter



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 1939
Location: Milton Keynes

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Little John wrote:
Resigned

Gone by June 7th


About time. Pretty much whatever your political views May's destined to go down as one of our worst leaders in history.


Ian Dunt has her down as 2nd worst:

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/24/may-ends-her-premiership-as-she-started-it-with-the-greatest

which is probably fair,


Peter.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


I suspect that the political class WILL be looking for a middle ground that they can call leaving, but that to me or to you will like remaining.

"We will have to stay in the customs union"
"Free movement of people is sacrosanct"
"We should remain subject to EU law"
"We will of course have to pay into the EU budget"
"Spain still needs access to fishing grounds"
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is any arrangement with the EU which future governments are democratically unable to change

I personally could live with any number of deals involving any aspect of those arrangement, being struck just so long as they do not interfere with the capacity of the British people to vote in a party that stood on a ticket of changing those arrangements.

It's called nation state democracy.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever else is true, I think it must now be acknowledged that Nigel Farage is the most important political figure in this country since Margaret Thatcher.

He hes been directly instrumental in the scalps of two Tory leaders and may yet be instrumental in the scalp of a Labour Leader.

Firstly, Farage's UKIP put Cameron under massive pressure which resulted in Cameron calling for a referendum on continued EU membership in the hope of heading off the risk from UKIP. His massive miscalculation resulted in Leave winning the referendum and Cameron's subsequent resignation.

1-0 to Farage.

Secondly, May's persistent betrayal and prevarications vis a vis the enactment of A50 alongside UKIP's post-Farage tack to the loony right has led, inevitably, to the creation of the Brexit party which, in the space of just a few weeks, on an explicit ticket of Leaving the EU with or without a deal, has resulted in the Tories being massacred in the Euro elections. In turn, leading to May's immediate resignation.

2-0 to Farage.

Corbyn's Labour party, meanwhile, is going the same way as the Tory party. It's just in slightly slower motion, that's all. However, we can expect that to pick up speed once Labour's dreadful EU election results come in on Sunday.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


I suspect that the political class WILL be looking for a middle ground that they can call leaving, but that to me or to you will like remaining.

"We will have to stay in the customs union"
"Free movement of people is sacrosanct"
"We should remain subject to EU law"
"We will of course have to pay into the EU budget"
"Spain still needs access to fishing grounds"


They can look all they like, all they will find is a desolate wasteland.

There's only two ways this can end now. One is via a no deal brexit forced through against the will of parliament, possibly by ending this parliament and not starting another one until the clock times out. While this is not impossible, the political consequences would be indescribably severe. The other is a general election, followed by a Lab/LD/SNP coalition which holds a second referendum, which remain narrowly wins.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:


Corbyn's Labour party, meanwhile, is going the same way as the Tory party. It's just in slightly slower motion, that's all. However, we can expect that to pick up speed once Labour's dreadful EU election results come in on Sunday.


There is no reason to believe this. Labour is on course to come second in these elections, while the tories might just get wiped out completely in terms of seats and come 5th or 6th in terms of votes.

Unlike the tories, Labour is able to preserve its core by remaining perched on the fence. It is the one luxury of not being in power. If Labour had been in power when brexit had to be delivered, then they might be facing an existential threat. But they aren't.

Look at my own constituency. Tories hold it by 400 votes, nobody else anywhere close. But unlike Peterborough, which is likely to be taken by Farage on June 6th, I'd bet on Labour taking Hastings even though their vote will drop substantially, because the Brexit Party will go from 0 to 15000, three quarters of which will come from the tories.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


Look at the big picture, all sides lose, there aren't winners. We're just characters the collapse of the world's first global civilisation.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We all know industrial civilization is going down the shitter. Meanwhile, on Brexit, one side must win and one side must lose.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:


Corbyn's Labour party, meanwhile, is going the same way as the Tory party. It's just in slightly slower motion, that's all. However, we can expect that to pick up speed once Labour's dreadful EU election results come in on Sunday.


There is no reason to believe this. Labour is on course to come second in these elections, while the tories might just get wiped out completely in terms of seats and come 5th or 6th in terms of votes.

Unlike the tories, Labour is able to preserve its core by remaining perched on the fence. It is the one luxury of not being in power. If Labour had been in power when brexit had to be delivered, then they might be facing an existential threat. But they aren't.

Look at my own constituency. Tories hold it by 400 votes, nobody else anywhere close. But unlike Peterborough, which is likely to be taken by Farage on June 6th, I'd bet on Labour taking Hastings even though their vote will drop substantially, because the Brexit Party will go from 0 to 15000, three quarters of which will come from the tories.
I'd save my optimism until after the EU election results came in I was you
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, apparently, a report has just been published which suggests that a committed no deal Brexiteer PM could take the UK out of the EU on WTO and parliament could do nothing about it legally. The reason being all of the amendments to the withdrawal bill, such as, for example, Cooper's critical amendment, all relate to the withdrawal bill itself. If that is discarded, parliament has no leverage as the clock ticks down.

Parliament would, under such circumstances no doubt apply as much political pressure as possible in the form of motions etc. But, legally, they would be worthless.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7065315/New-Brexiteer-PM-wants-Britain-EU-No-Deal-stopped-Parliament.html
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PS_RalphW



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Posts: 5493
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A vote of no confidence would be passed, bringing the government down. However, that in itself would not stop the no deal exit.

It would be a major constitutional crisis. As if we didn't have one already...
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