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Brexit process
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 135
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

Either, all companies started preps 2 years ago and are ready and waiting....
Or, SMEs don't need detailed preps as they'll get by on the hoof.....
Make your mind up, you can't have it both ways.....


If you carry on like this we are going to have to start betting Very Happy

How many chemical companies move to the EU next year. I will bet not many.

Mark wrote:

My vibe is that most UK companies are nervous and getting more so, regardless of the sector.
Very few have detailed plans in place, due to the ever moving political sands....


I have a very different vibe!
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Anyone who believe in nation statehood must be a blithering, jingoistic fool at best or a knuckle dragging moron at worst...right?


Wrong. The country was split approx. 50/50 and remains so. Both sides have perfectly valid arguments. Both sides need to respect the opposite point of view.

It's too early yet, but at some point we'll have to go through a 'healing' process, both within the UK and in the future UK/EU relationship....
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
If you carry on like this we are going to have to start betting Very Happy

How many chemical companies move to the EU next year. I will bet not many.


As you know, it's not easy to move a chemical company....
My bet is that the short-term impact will be that UK manufacturers will find it more difficult to sell into the EU, leading to contraction and job losses.
In the medium term (5/10/15 years), there will be a gradual shift in investment away from the UK, some to the EU, some outside the EU....
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 135
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

My bet is that the short-term impact will be that UK manufacturers will find it more difficult to sell into the EU, leading to contraction and job losses.
In the medium term (5/10/15 years), there will be a gradual shift in investment away from the UK, some to the EU, some outside the EU....


I'll put you in the doomer camp Very Happy
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6123
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
Little John wrote:
Anyone who believe in nation statehood must be a blithering, jingoistic fool at best or a knuckle dragging moron at worst...right?


Wrong. The country was split approx. 50/50 and remains so. Both sides have perfectly valid arguments. Both sides need to respect the opposite point of view.

It's too early yet, but at some point we'll have to go through a 'healing' process, both within the UK and in the future UK/EU relationship....
Smug, sanctimonious, self-satisfied, supercilious, sneering and, worst of all, anti-democratic jokers on the remain side have made that all but impossible.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Mark wrote:
Little John wrote:
Anyone who believe in nation statehood must be a blithering, jingoistic fool at best or a knuckle dragging moron at worst...right?


Wrong. The country was split approx. 50/50 and remains so. Both sides have perfectly valid arguments. Both sides need to respect the opposite point of view.

It's too early yet, but at some point we'll have to go through a 'healing' process, both within the UK and in the future UK/EU relationship....
Smug, sanctimonious, self-satisfied, supercilious, sneering and, worst of all, anti-democratic jokers on the remain side have made that all but impossible.


And the Brexit side is any better ?
For example, try re-reading your last 20/30/40 posts.... !!!

It's a divorce. We're going through the difficult bit at the moment where we're dividing the house, car, record collection etc.....
Once it's all done, we'll still need to talk to each other about the kids etc...
We're not going to war - infact we'll very much need the EU as allies....
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6123
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
Little John wrote:
Mark wrote:
Little John wrote:
Anyone who believe in nation statehood must be a blithering, jingoistic fool at best or a knuckle dragging moron at worst...right?


Wrong. The country was split approx. 50/50 and remains so. Both sides have perfectly valid arguments. Both sides need to respect the opposite point of view.

It's too early yet, but at some point we'll have to go through a 'healing' process, both within the UK and in the future UK/EU relationship....
Smug, sanctimonious, self-satisfied, supercilious, sneering and, worst of all, anti-democratic jokers on the remain side have made that all but impossible.


And the Brexit side is any better ?
For example, try re-reading your last 20/30/40 posts.... !!!

It's a divorce. We're going through the difficult bit at the moment where we're dividing the house, car, record collection etc.....
Once it's all done, we'll still need to talk to each other about the kids etc...
We're not going to war - infact we'll very much need the EU as allies....
Every single one of my posts on this topic has been in response to precisely that which I mentioned and that which you have just amply displayed. Well done.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Remember, CEFIC, CIA, ENDSREPORT.

All private companies selling compliance services.


Really ??
The CIA is a membership organisation, funded by its members to represent their interests...., their main interest is in a healthy UK Chemical Sector
CEFIC is the European version - not sure on the exact structure, but think it's fairly similar.
ENDS Report is an environmental newsfeed/magazine, paid for by those who subscribe and/or advertise. Personally, I find their articles excellently researched and very detailed.

You really will have to start referencing some of your assertions over the past few pages.....
Or you might start losing credibility....
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4290
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not a solution to the Brexit impasse, but a first step

FAZ has a Brexit scoop this morning. The European Commission is ready to offer the UK an extension of the transitional period, which under a previous draft agreement would have ended in December 2020. This is an important concession and solves the problem of the two transitional periods that would have been necessary - this one, plus the period in a customs union until the FTA takes effect. But the offer does not address the hairy issue of the Irish backstop: what happens if there is no FTA by the end of that period.

FAZ sources its story from an internal document circulating after the breakdown of the talks on Sunday. The article - and we presume the document - does not mention any specific dates, but we would assume that the natural end date would be December 2021, just ahead of the next UK elections. This is still a tight timetable for an FTA - though not necessarily for an FTA that starts out from a situation where the two parties have already converged. 

The paper raises more questions than it answers. For example, it says the UK insisted on a permanent inclusion of the country in the customs union if no FTA is negotiated. This seems to contradict Theresa May’s statement in the House of Commons that the UK would not be a permanent member of a customs union. The document said the Commission was, at this stage, not ready to offer the UK permanent membership of a customs union as part of the withdrawal treaty itself. 

Today’s European Council is unlikely to make much progress. The main goal is to avoid another diplomatic disaster as in Salzburg. We don’t see a Brexit deal concluded until December at the earliest - a timetable that would also greatly help passage of a withdrawal deal in the House of Commons. We also believe that the EU should then make a statement that the deal is final - making clear that it will not renegotiate if the deal is rejected, or accept an extension to the Brexit process. It is essential for passage of the agreement that the EU eliminates doubt among UK MPs about the availability of alternatives.

We note a column by Daniel Finkelstein, the Times columnist, who recently reflected about why a second referendum may be attractive to May herself. He now seems to have shifted his views on this matter, and says that May’s position is stronger than it appears with regards to the House of Commons. A no-deal scenario would indeed open up the possibility of a second referendum or a general election, both unpalatable options for the Brexiteers. And they cannot get rid of May because they don’t have sufficient votes.

So, once it became clear that there would not be a general election after a failed deal (if, for example, the DUP stays on board), would the Labour Party really oppose it? After all, their whole rationale for rejecting the deal is to force elections.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 135
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
Remember, CEFIC, CIA, ENDSREPORT.

All private companies selling compliance services.


Really ??
The CIA is a membership organisation, funded by its members to represent their interests...., their main interest is in a healthy UK Chemical Sector
CEFIC is the European version - not sure on the exact structure, but think it's fairly similar.
ENDS Report is an environmental newsfeed/magazine, paid for by those who subscribe and/or advertise. Personally, I find their articles excellently researched and very detailed.

You really will have to start referencing some of your assertions over the past few pages.....
Or you might start losing credibility....


CIA selling a conference Nov 15 at the Grosvenor, Park Lane, London.

'Brexit and Growth of the UK Chemical Industry' a snip at £400 per person!

You going?
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kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10519
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
........Wrong. The country was split approx. 50/50 and remains so. Both sides have perfectly valid arguments. Both sides need to respect the opposite point of view.

It's too early yet, but at some point we'll have to go through a 'healing' process, both within the UK and in the future UK/EU relationship....


The country was split 48 to 52 in favour of leaving with another bunch who were so enthused by the whole project that they couldn't be bothered to think about it and vote. Who know which way they might have gone?

It would be nice if Remainers respected the Brexitiers point of view instead of calling us everything from racist to stupid including liars on the way. The worst thing that I have said about Remainers is that they are hypocrites for trying to con us into having a "People's Vote" again on the basis that we didn't have a "People's Vote" the first time around.

So can we have some respect for the Brexit point of view please?
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
CIA selling a conference Nov 15 at the Grosvenor, Park Lane, London.

'Brexit and Growth of the UK Chemical Industry' a snip at £400 per person!

You going?


As we don't know what type of Brexit we'll end up with, it can only be guesswork - IMO not worth it.....
Might have a look at the Agenda out of interest though....
Maybe they'll predict a massive increase for chemical regulatory services and a shrinkage of manufacturing..... Smile
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6123
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Not a solution to the Brexit impasse, but a first step

FAZ has a Brexit scoop this morning. The European Commission is ready to offer the UK an extension of the transitional period, which under a previous draft agreement would have ended in December 2020. This is an important concession and solves the problem of the two transitional periods that would have been necessary - this one, plus the period in a customs union until the FTA takes effect.....


In what way is that a "concession" and in what way does it "solve" anything?

It means we stay in the EU with all of the issues about the EU, that caused people to voite to leave, still pertaining.

There are only and have only ever been a limited number of solutions and they have been known form the start.

a) leave with a free trade deal that does not involve sacrificing the sovereignty of our judiciary, legislature or borders.

b) leave without a deal and trade on WTO rules

c) don't leave

(a) is preferable, (b) is doable if necessary and (c) is not available. Or, at least, not unless we wish to see civil insurrection and/or a major realignment of British politics.

Our political class, however, are hoping they can grind the people down to the point where they will accept (c)

Not going to happen.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Mark wrote:
........Wrong. The country was split approx. 50/50 and remains so. Both sides have perfectly valid arguments. Both sides need to respect the opposite point of view.

It's too early yet, but at some point we'll have to go through a 'healing' process, both within the UK and in the future UK/EU relationship....


The country was split 48 to 52 in favour of leaving with another bunch who were so enthused by the whole project that they couldn't be bothered to think about it and vote. Who know which way they might have gone?

It would be nice if Remainers respected the Brexitiers point of view instead of calling us everything from racist to stupid including liars on the way. The worst thing that I have said about Remainers is that they are hypocrites for trying to con us into having a "People's Vote" again on the basis that we didn't have a "People's Vote" the first time around.

So can we have some respect for the Brexit point of view please?


If you re-read my post, I said that BOTH sides need to respect the opposite point of view...
I haven't said which way I voted, or indeed whether I was part of the 'other bunch' that didn't vote....

What I have said, is that as I understand the implications of a No Deal Brexit better, I now believe that it would have a massive adverse impact on UK Manufacturing.
Some here might think that is a reasonable price to pay to regain sovereignty....
I haven't commented on that aspect.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 135
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
I now believe that it would have a massive adverse impact on UK Manufacturing.


Thanks for the very clear opinion.

Just for the avoidance of doubt. You also believe that Brexit will never be advantageous for manufacturing. Brexit can only be bad for manufacturing?
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