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Brexit process
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 12048
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sun Jan 26, 2020 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
That's probably so they stiff us with a bigger bill when the ECB needs bailing out.


The ECB is a central bank and will never need bailing out. It can print all the money it needs, or the the rest of the EU needs.

What will need bailing out in the near future according to many commentators are many of Europe's ordinary banks. As we are leaving the EU we shouldn't get any direct calls for bailing out European banks but many of our banks have quite heavy commitments in Europe so they could require bailing out when the EU gets into trouble shortly.

Perhaps we should let Nicola Sturgeon bale out RBS and the other Scottish one whose name escapes me at the moment.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Sun Jan 26, 2020 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
That's probably so they stiff us with a bigger bill when the ECB needs bailing out.


The ECB is a central bank and will never need bailing out. It can print all the money it needs, or the the rest of the EU needs.

What will need bailing out in the near future according to many commentators are many of Europe's ordinary banks. As we are leaving the EU we shouldn't get any direct calls for bailing out European banks but many of our banks have quite heavy commitments in Europe so they could require bailing out when the EU gets into trouble shortly.

Perhaps we should let Nicola Sturgeon bale out RBS and the other Scottish one whose name escapes me at the moment.


We are on the hook alright - ask Phillip Hammond

from JW: The EIB Hammond Deal remains hidden and undiscussed. We are talking in the region of a €150 billion medium-term cost to the UK which is completely unjustifiable. Worse still, we are on the line for a half trillion euros liability for any lending cockups this quite extraordinarily stupid bank might hatch with no power over its actions.

here:

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/10/09/revealed-how-hammond-the-hypocrite-gave-away-an-nhs-budget-to-help-save-his-brussels-cronies/
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obviously, we should have stayed in the EU Laughing
As the poorly educated people made the wrong decision, god has sent the corona virus to punish us. ON BREXIT DAY.

What clearer sign is needed. There is still time to repent.
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stumuz1



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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stumuz1



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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will be opening a bottle of Moet at 11. Going onto the roof balcony and watching the fireworks go off at eleven.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1218
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As Johnson's cargo cult brexit apparently comes closer and ever closer to “getting done” I have just twigged how much all his carry on reminds me of doings of the managing director of a small company I once worked for as it slid towards bankruptcy. Bob, lets call him Bob, certainly was a natural salesman had no shortage of self confidence, was the consummate glad handler and wasn't in the least bit shy about blowing his trumpet very loudly. When I joined he had very confidently assured me that there was a big investment and expansion 'imminent', a 'full' order book and massive growth potential.

Bob was a very busy boy rarely in his office and always darting about to various events and meetings including negotiations on acquiring an interest in a complimentary product line being sold off by another company. This, he assured us, would bring the company to the next level and a golden age would ensue.

However as time went by it was hard not to notice that Bob and his fellow directors were not getting anywhere fast with their ambitious negotiations and investment plans. He was getting tetchier and more short tempered all the time.

One day I was on the telephone trying to placate a large customer (whilst the customer really wanted to talk Bob) about delivery delays on a major component. What I couldn't tell him that this was due to the supplier refusing us credit and demanding cash payment. At this point Bob returned to he office, rather red faced after a long lunch 'meeting', and I urgently indicated that the customer wanted to talk to him. 'Tell him to feck off' he shouted loud enough for the customer to hear. Things were not going well.

Matters were also not helped by the fact he was carrying on with the the wife of the company chairman and a private detective was often seen parked outside the factory photographing his comings and goings. Making the payroll every month became a nail biting drama often involving someone having to dash off to the bank at the last moment to get a cheque for a customer's deposit or a grant payment express cleared.

At this point it was discovered that Bob was maxing out the company credit card on bottles of expensive whiskey at the posh off license in the near by town. To the very end he maintained that the “Deal was in the bag” and that we had nothing to worry about”.

Good luck as Brussels pushes for a level playing field rather than an Eton playing field!
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 31, 2020 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:


Good luck as Brussels pushes for a level playing field rather than an Eton playing field!


Potemkin Villager, things are going to be awful for you. You are doomed.

However, in other news, a bright new future beckons to anyone who wants to grab it.

I spend a lot of the winter in the Canaries. If for a scintilla of a second the Spanish make it difficult for me, can you think of anywhere else i can spend January and February?

It needs to be sunny, warm, relatively cheap (cold beer about a pound a pint)

California, India, South America, Florida, Cuba, Caribbean, to name but a few.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Feb 03, 2020 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Will be opening a bottle of Moet at 11. Going onto the roof balcony and watching the fireworks go off at eleven.


Didn't have the champagne but one of our neighbours had fireworks at 11:00.

But everything those Remainers told us would happen when we voted out all came true!! Not!!!
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.ft.com/content/c4f0d1e2-4442-11ea-a43a-c4b328d9061c

Quote:

Nissan has drawn up a plan to pull out of mainland Europe if Brexit leads to tariffs on car exports — but to double down on the UK, where the Japanese company believes it could sell one in five cars.

Two people involved in the discussions said the contingency plan, drawn up late last year, would see Nissan close its struggling Barcelona van facility and stop manufacturing in France.

Under the scenario, the Sunderland plant in the UK would be maintained as part of an audacious attempt to steal market share from other carmakers.

If carmakers that import to Britain such as Ford and Volkswagen face tariffs that make their cars more expensive, Nissan’s UK-made models would have a competitive edge, allowing the company to grow from 4 per cent of the market currently to as high as 20 per cent, according to the two people.

The scenario is one of several that the carmaker developed to plan for post-Brexit tariffs. People familiar with the discussions cautioned that the contingency plan was drawn up before Makoto Uchida was installed as the new chief executive in December.

Both the EU and the UK are expected to lay out tough negotiating positions today ahead of trade talks next month. Brussels will insist that market access be directly linked to Britain’s willingness to align with the bloc’s regulations when it unveils its proposals, while the UK will reject the idea of accepting EU rules.

Nissan’s public position is that the UK plant would be threatened along with its European business if the UK fails to maintain tariff-free access to the EU.

“We deny such a contingency plan exists,” said a spokesman for Nissan Europe. “We’ve modelled every possible ramification of Brexit and the fact remains that our entire business both in the UK and in Europe is not sustainable in the event of WTO tariffs …We continue to urge UK and EU negotiators to work collaboratively towards an orderly balanced Brexit that will continue to encourage mutually beneficial trade.”

Nissan’s warnings have prompted fears that the company would eventually be forced to close its Sunderland production site if UK prime minister Boris Johnson fails to secure a deal with the EU.

But the Japanese carmaker has invested more than £4bn in the site, the largest in the UK with 6,000 workers, and is determined to keep the facility operational even at the expense of abandoning its exports-based model.

The plant, which is Nissan’s most efficient outside Japan, already makes three of Nissan’s five core models — the Qashqai, the Juke and the electric Leaf.

Under Nissan’s tariff scenario, the Micra — a small car that shares a wheelbase with the Juke and is produced in a Renault plant in France — would be moved back to the UK. The company would also explore Sunderland producing the X-Trail, the largest of its models and one it previously planned to make in the UK.

The site is equipped to make up to 600,000 cars a year, but last year output fell by a fifth to 350,000, with 80 per cent of the vehicles exported. Under the scenario of selling only to the UK and growing sales, the plant could reach 400,000.

Its reliance on components imported from Europe — which would face tariffs under a hard Brexit — will also reduce as the brand winds down its use of diesel engines made by Renault. Nissan plans to eliminate the fuel source from its line-up from 2022.

The idea of abandoning the business in mainland Europe underscores how far Nissan’s fortunes have declined in the region, where sales fell 17 per cent to 567,000 vehicles last year and most operations are lossmaking due to a sharp decline in diesel demand.

Other carmakers have hinted at the possibility of growing in the UK after a hard Brexit with Carlos Tavares, chief executive of Peugeot owner PSA, promising in that situation to step up the company’s presence in the UK at its Ellesmere Port car plant in Cheshire.
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stumuz1



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PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
No, the EU has double whammy to suffer from a no deal scenario.

1/ UK will go to world trade prices for imports. Roughly 20% cheaper than the EU or EU tariffed imports from rest of the world.
To carry on selling into the UK, EU Exporters will have to match those new prices, a big drop in share earnings for EU companies. Also, UK can now import into EU on the cheaper world prices (+tariff) which will still be cheaper than the current EU prices. EU consumers will not put up paying more and receiving less for just ideology. So, rough guess about 5 Billion in extra Corporation taxes for the UK.

2/ To sell in the UK market at these world prices, the EU will have to match them; they cannot raise prices when the tariffs go on, or they risk selling nothing at all. So these EU exporters must absorb the tariffs. The UK Treasury will receive its £13 billion direct from EU exporters.


This is on top of the 12-13 Billion (gross) the EU will not receive from the UK in Fees for membership.

So 12+ 13 + 5 = roughly 30 billion extra cash for the UK whilst, the EU receives a massive tariff bill, Huge loss in corporate earnings etc.

And you think the EU will not fight tooth and nail to keep us in by fair means or foul?


You need to do some serious referencing.
More sweeping statements, with numbers plucked from seemingly nowhere.

Personally, I see no basis in reality here.
If it was an easy 30 billion extra cash for the UK, why is nearly every business organisation against Hard Brexit ?
That might not stop somebody putting it on the side of a bus though Very Happy


The FT article tends to agree with a discussion had on here a while back.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1294
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
No, the EU has double whammy to suffer from a no deal scenario.

1/ UK will go to world trade prices for imports. Roughly 20% cheaper than the EU or EU tariffed imports from rest of the world.
To carry on selling into the UK, EU Exporters will have to match those new prices, a big drop in share earnings for EU companies. Also, UK can now import into EU on the cheaper world prices (+tariff) which will still be cheaper than the current EU prices. EU consumers will not put up paying more and receiving less for just ideology. So, rough guess about 5 Billion in extra Corporation taxes for the UK.

2/ To sell in the UK market at these world prices, the EU will have to match them; they cannot raise prices when the tariffs go on, or they risk selling nothing at all. So these EU exporters must absorb the tariffs. The UK Treasury will receive its £13 billion direct from EU exporters.


This is on top of the 12-13 Billion (gross) the EU will not receive from the UK in Fees for membership.

So 12+ 13 + 5 = roughly 30 billion extra cash for the UK whilst, the EU receives a massive tariff bill, Huge loss in corporate earnings etc.

And you think the EU will not fight tooth and nail to keep us in by fair means or foul?


You need to do some serious referencing.
More sweeping statements, with numbers plucked from seemingly nowhere.

Personally, I see no basis in reality here.
If it was an easy 30 billion extra cash for the UK, why is nearly every business organisation against Hard Brexit ?
That might not stop somebody putting it on the side of a bus though Very Happy


The FT article tends to agree with a discussion had on here a while back.


Wow, you've been sitting on that island of yours for the last 6 months waiting to 'score a point' ?
Anyway, notice that you're still not willing/able to provide a reference ??

Regarding the FT article, there are many competing forces on the UK Car Industry at the moment - the main one being the move from Petrol/Diesel to Electric, but no mention ?
Suspect it will be difficult to filter out what the positive/negative impact of Brexit will be, but I guess time will tell ?
The last news I heard about PSA's Ellesmere Port Plant, was of large job cuts and imminent threat of closure....
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/vauxhall-cut-hundreds-jobs-ellesmere-port-2019
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 8181
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:
No, the EU has double whammy to suffer from a no deal scenario.

1/ UK will go to world trade prices for imports. Roughly 20% cheaper than the EU or EU tariffed imports from rest of the world.
To carry on selling into the UK, EU Exporters will have to match those new prices, a big drop in share earnings for EU companies. Also, UK can now import into EU on the cheaper world prices (+tariff) which will still be cheaper than the current EU prices. EU consumers will not put up paying more and receiving less for just ideology. So, rough guess about 5 Billion in extra Corporation taxes for the UK.

2/ To sell in the UK market at these world prices, the EU will have to match them; they cannot raise prices when the tariffs go on, or they risk selling nothing at all. So these EU exporters must absorb the tariffs. The UK Treasury will receive its £13 billion direct from EU exporters.


This is on top of the 12-13 Billion (gross) the EU will not receive from the UK in Fees for membership.

So 12+ 13 + 5 = roughly 30 billion extra cash for the UK whilst, the EU receives a massive tariff bill, Huge loss in corporate earnings etc.

And you think the EU will not fight tooth and nail to keep us in by fair means or foul?


You need to do some serious referencing.
More sweeping statements, with numbers plucked from seemingly nowhere.

Personally, I see no basis in reality here.
If it was an easy 30 billion extra cash for the UK, why is nearly every business organisation against Hard Brexit ?
That might not stop somebody putting it on the side of a bus though Very Happy


The FT article tends to agree with a discussion had on here a while back.


Wow, you've been sitting on that island of yours for the last 6 months waiting to 'score a point' ?
Anyway, notice that you're still not willing/able to provide a reference ??

Regarding the FT article, there are many competing forces on the UK Car Industry at the moment - the main one being the move from Petrol/Diesel to Electric, but no mention ?
Suspect it will be difficult to filter out what the positive/negative impact of Brexit will be, but I guess time will tell ?
The last news I heard about PSA's Ellesmere Port Plant, was of large job cuts and imminent threat of closure....
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/vauxhall-cut-hundreds-jobs-ellesmere-port-2019
Oh, so you "suspect it will be difficult" do you?

Over the last three years, you have hysterically argued Brexit = Armegeddon... Laughing
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1294
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 5:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Oh, so you "suspect it will be difficult" do you?

Over the last three years, you have hysterically argued Brexit = Armegeddon... Laughing


Read what I said.....xx

I was just highlighting out that the Car Industry is going through massive change at the moment with the move from Petrol/Diesel to Electric - not mentioned in the article
This will probably have a much greater impact on car sales than Brexit will, and hence more difficult to gauge the impact of Brexit in this industry.

The impact of Brexit will be easier to gauge in other industries.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
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Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:


Wow, you've been sitting on that island of yours for the last 6 months waiting to 'score a point' ?


Well, it's nice to be vindicated!

Mark wrote:

Anyway, notice that you're still not willing/able to provide a reference ??



Professor Patrick Minford. Professor of Economics. Cardiff University.
https://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/News/brexit-could-boost-uk-economy-by-135-billion-say-top-economists/

Mark wrote:


Regarding the FT article, there are many competing forces on the UK Car Industry at the moment - the main one being the move from Petrol/Diesel to Electric, but no mention ?


Completely agree. Shame the rump of remainers could not utter those words a few months ago.

Mark wrote:

Suspect it will be difficult to filter out what the positive/negative impact of Brexit will be, but I guess time will tell ?


We are going to live through the most fundamental change since WW2. It will be a crazy ride. A lot of financial and banking interests will be buggered.

A lot of ordinary people will benefit.

Mark wrote:

The last news I heard about PSA's Ellesmere Port Plant, was of large job cuts and imminent threat of closure....


Yes, I will never buy a new car again. As a PowerSwitch contributor I know that hiring cars is a better financial/environmental choice.

Most people will make the same choice of the next few years. Ultimately, most car workers, world wide will lose their jobs.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure how the FT writing an article that totally ignores one of the biggest factors somehow 'vindicates' you ?
The Car Industry moving to Electric and Brexit are totally separate issues to my mind, but maybe not to yours ?

I'll look at the link, when I get a mo.

Agree that we're going to live through a period of fundamental change, but don't share your belief that a lot of ordinary people will benefit.
In any period of significant upheaval (eg war), it's always been the poorest that suffer and lose the most.
Happy to hear how you think it will be different this time ?
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