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Brexit process
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6462
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
I see that Trump advisor Kudlow is expected to come to the UK next month to begin trade talks.
I would suggest they just tack on the UK name to the Canada Mexico US trade deal as an interim measure while the negotiators work out anything that needs to be more UK to USA specific.


That might work provided there is no impact on the NHS. Anyone on the other side of the pond currently salivating over the UK "health market" has got a big disappointment coming. Johnson isn't stupid. He knows the NHS is going to be a massive issue when he has to face the electorate again, and nobody who uses the NHS wants to import anything to do with the US system.

I see that the liberals were using the NHS as a scare tactic prior to your election. I don't see any real chance of anything happening that would be a "sell out' or "sale" of the NHS. as a possibility. Why would your side negotiate anything that would be unpopular with their voters?

Quote:
and nobody who uses the NHS wants to import anything to do with the US system

Well not higher drug prices for sure but perhaps the US could offer UK citizens shorter wait times for elective services or cancer treatment?
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2019 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The tories would like, in principle, to sell off the NHS. They don't use it. But they have long known that they can't get away with anything more than running it down, and in the current circumstances even that isn't a viable strategy.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 18, 2019 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eurointeligence latest...

Quote:
What if Johnson only wants a minimal deal? Is that so implausible?

The EU knows, of course, that laws in the UK can be made and changed very quickly, so one could interpret Boris Johnson’s legal extension limit as a letter of intent, or as a cry for help. Why limit your choices, as the Irish foreign minister, Simon Coveney, put it?

We would caution against the idea that Johnson is bluffing. The decision, while reversible in theory, is not as irrational as it may appear.

Look at the situation from his perspective. He will need to deliver a recognisable Brexit well before the next elections. If the EU were to drag out the negotiations and the subsequent ratification to beyond 2024, he would not have delivered of the most important promise of the 2019 elections: to get Brexit done. He loses the election, and a new UK government might call the whole thing off.

We are also not sure that he is going to gain all that much from a broad trade agreement. The EU wants to sequence fish ahead of services. A departure from the customs union and the single market may well trigger a short-term shock, maybe worse. But if it has to happen, it is better that this happens early.

We would not rule out a single, non-renewable extension of, say, six months, which would give time for a marginally broader agreement. The trouble is that anything that goes beyond a simple deal would require the UK to follow some EU rules, and to subject itself to ECJ control. The EU might even try to extract a price for a tariff-only trade deal, despite its large trade surpluses.

Looking at this from the perspective of Johnson, the specific circumstances of the elections and his large majority, we think there would be a political logic for him either to seek a zero-tariff-only deal, no-deal, or bring the whole thing to the brink and see how the EU reacts. A simple zero-tariff deal can be done at EU level, and does not require ratification by national parliaments. We recall a ruling by the ECJ that widened the remit for EU-level trade agreements. This is an avenue the two sides might pursue. For as long as the UK and the EU stay inside that remit, we see no reason against the conclusion of such a deal by the end of the year.

This is why we are careful about predictions that Johnson will extend the deadline and go for a softer Brexit on the grounds that he has a large majority. That remains a possible scenario. But it is not the only one.

Also consider that he is not totally immune from the European Research Group. With a majority of 80, it takes 40 people to conduct a successful rebellion. If he were to introduce a one-line bill to overturn his extension ban, he might have to rely on the opposition, and he would be back in the same position where Theresa May ended up. In those circumstances a minimal trade deal is not the worst conceivable scenario, which is why we give it serious consideration.

We also agree with the comment by Raphael Hogarth in the Times, who said that Remainers should be careful with their constant predictions that he will not get a deal. They were wrong to predict that the EU would not reopen the withdrawal agreement. A simple trade agreement can be negotiated very quickly. Johnson might even repeat his trick from October, surrender and declare victory.

We also noted a tweet by Rupert Harrison from Blackrock, who is thinking on similar lines as we are:

"For example you could negotiate a bare bones 'Beta' trade deal covering goods, with continuity ensured in areas like energy and transport, ongoing equivalence regime for financial services, similar for data. Followed by continuing negotiation of a more comprehensive FTA. Anyone who thinks either side will contemplate a damaging cliff edge has learned nothing from the revealed preferences of the last year."

We are, however, not sure that the EU would grant equivalence for financial services. Most financial companies have made their preparations in any case. But a reduced list of what he suggests - including energy, but excluding finance for example - would be doable

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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2019 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Well not higher drug prices for sure but perhaps the US could offer UK citizens shorter wait times for elective services or cancer treatment?

Well, in the EU you can theoretically jump on a plane at get treatment in a EU country which has shorter waiting times.

That feature - although rarely used - is about to disappear from the UK.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 21, 2019 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
Quote:
Well not higher drug prices for sure but perhaps the US could offer UK citizens shorter wait times for elective services or cancer treatment?

Well, in the EU you can theoretically jump on a plane at get treatment in a EU country which has shorter waiting times.

That feature - although rarely used - is about to disappear from the UK.
Well some well healed Brits already fly to the US for cutting edge service on their own dime. Perhaps you could get the NHS to pay what would (eventually) be their cost and let the patient have to just make up the difference plus the air fair.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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Location: NW England

PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Vortex2 wrote:
Quote:
Well not higher drug prices for sure but perhaps the US could offer UK citizens shorter wait times for elective services or cancer treatment?

Well, in the EU you can theoretically jump on a plane at get treatment in a EU country which has shorter waiting times.

That feature - although rarely used - is about to disappear from the UK.
Well some well healed Brits already fly to the US for cutting edge service on their own dime. Perhaps you could get the NHS to pay what would (eventually) be their cost and let the patient have to just make up the difference plus the air fair.


The 'cutting edge' service you mention is also only available in the US to well healed Yanks...., whilst the poor get their wallets checked before they receive even the most basic service.....
The NHS (generally) gives a very good level of service to all, free at the point of access, paid for by taxes, which most of us are happy to pay.

As seen in the recent election, the vast majority of Brits do not want a US model for healthcare....
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vtsnowedin



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

The 'cutting edge' service you mention is also only available in the US to well healed Yanks...., whilst the poor get their wallets checked before they receive even the most basic service.....


You are wrong on that point. The poor in the US get medicaid and the same level of service as the average Joe with insurance. Hospitals are not allowed to turn people away for lack of funds. The costs for uninsured people not yet covered by one or the other gets rolled into the bills of those who do have insurance.


Quote:

The NHS (generally) gives a very good level of service to all, free at the point of access, paid for by taxes, which most of us are happy to pay.

As seen in the recent election, the vast majority of Brits do not want a US model for healthcare....

Yet your system has it's troubles shown by long wait times and the low number of MRIs and the like per thousand people.
The vast majority of Americans do not want to join you in the waiting line.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

V, do you need me to show you the actual numbers in black and white?

On pretty much any health measure you care to mention, the NHS significantly outperforms the US health care system. Both in terms of average cost and average health outcomes.

But then, in fact, that is not saying very much since the US lies behind most other Western countries in terms of average health outcome and average healthcare cost per capita.

As an American, you have been brainwashed on this, as with so many, many other issues.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
V, do you need me to show you the actual numbers in black and white?

On pretty much any health measure you care to mention, the NHS significantly outperforms the US health care system. Both in terms of average cost and average health outcomes.

But then, in fact, that is not saying very much since the US lies behind most other Western countries in terms of average health outcome and average healthcare cost per capita.

As an American, you have been brainwashed on this, as with so many, many other issues.

I don't propose that the UK should adopt the US system. It has many troubles and the cost is outrageous. I am merely suggesting that in a post Brexit world you Brits should be able to come to the US for say cancer treatment where time is of the essence and outcome rates better.
As to the numbers a quick search shows this about MRIs.
Quote:
We know the UK's MRI capacity is stretched compared to other countries. The UK has 6.1 MRI systems per million people, fewer than countries including Estonia and Slovenia. By comparison, the US has 38.1 scanners per million and Germany has 30.53.May 10, 2017

https://www.rcr.ac.uk/posts/nhs-must-do-more-future-proof-its-mri-capacity-say-imaging-experts
And elsewhere I find:
Quote:
The UK has fewer doctors, nurses and hospital beds than the OECD average.

As to the cost it is true that the UK spends about half as much per capita as the US and has a slightly higher life expectancy. However if you are receiving a quarter of the healthcare services your cost per unit of healthcare (a hard thing to measure) is probably higher. Also the lower expected lifespan in the US including higher infant mortality can be explained by the higher drug use in the US and the violence it creates along with higher tobacco use and obesity which the US with more disposable income per capita indulges itself with.
We could go on with this but it would be better in a healthcare thread separate from Brexit.
In the meantime Best of luck to all of you with your new government.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
............ Also the lower expected lifespan in the US including higher infant mortality can be explained by the higher drug use in the US and the violence it creates along with higher tobacco use and obesity which the US with more disposable income per capita indulges itself with.
............


I would think that the number of gun users in the US also has an effect on life expectancy. Note that I said gun users not guns as I realise that it is not guns which shoot people but the users!!
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
............ Also the lower expected lifespan in the US including higher infant mortality can be explained by the higher drug use in the US and the violence it creates along with higher tobacco use and obesity which the US with more disposable income per capita indulges itself with.
............


I would think that the number of gun users in the US also has an effect on life expectancy. Note that I said gun users not guns as I realise that it is not guns which shoot people but the users!!

You should add the word 'criminal' before gun users and then you would be correct. A great proportion of gun violence is drug and gang related so is a criminal activity. Also a large portion of infant mortality is due to the mothers being addicted to a narcotic while pregnant.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 3:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I had an email from the 38 Degrees campaigning organisation this morning asking for funds because apparently now the government has a large majority MPs are ignoring the electorate by not answering emails and phone calls. The fact that 38 Degrees was calling on MPs to ignore 17.4 million of their voters not so long ago, that the MPs have only just been voted in and it's also Christmas has not been taken into account. Hypocrites?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 28, 2019 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Little John wrote:
V, do you need me to show you the actual numbers in black and white?

On pretty much any health measure you care to mention, the NHS significantly outperforms the US health care system. Both in terms of average cost and average health outcomes.

But then, in fact, that is not saying very much since the US lies behind most other Western countries in terms of average health outcome and average healthcare cost per capita.

As an American, you have been brainwashed on this, as with so many, many other issues.

I don't propose that the UK should adopt the US system. It has many troubles and the cost is outrageous. I am merely suggesting that in a post Brexit world you Brits should be able to come to the US for say cancer treatment where time is of the essence and outcome rates better.
As to the numbers a quick search shows this about MRIs.
Quote:
We know the UK's MRI capacity is stretched compared to other countries. The UK has 6.1 MRI systems per million people, fewer than countries including Estonia and Slovenia. By comparison, the US has 38.1 scanners per million and Germany has 30.53.May 10, 2017

https://www.rcr.ac.uk/posts/nhs-must-do-more-future-proof-its-mri-capacity-say-imaging-experts
And elsewhere I find:
Quote:
The UK has fewer doctors, nurses and hospital beds than the OECD average.

As to the cost it is true that the UK spends about half as much per capita as the US and has a slightly higher life expectancy. However if you are receiving a quarter of the healthcare services your cost per unit of healthcare (a hard thing to measure) is probably higher. Also the lower expected lifespan in the US including higher infant mortality can be explained by the higher drug use in the US and the violence it creates along with higher tobacco use and obesity which the US with more disposable income per capita indulges itself with.
We could go on with this but it would be better in a healthcare thread separate from Brexit.
In the meantime Best of luck to all of you with your new government.
Actually, I take the points on board about higher drug usage affecting mortality. Thanks for a reasoned response V.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Points to bear in mind when considering the “benefits” of health services. These are only two, and the list could be much longer.

Mortality decreases when doctors strike

Reports of this have been available for decades, and all over the world. It appears to be elective intervention that is the problem, but no instance has been recorded of mortality incrasing when doctors go on strike.

Obesity is not an indulgence of people with more disposable income. The more obese people are generally the poorer people. I accept there are many well of people who are obese, but obesity is a consequence of high fructose additions to food. This is caused by, amongst other things, the removal of fibre to improve shelf life by permitting freezing of processed foods. The taste of processed foods being crap unless modified by flavour enhancers like sugar and salt, because they are cheap.

How it does it, and why fructose is toxic (Robert Lustig)
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2020 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree that poor people are less well served in the food products that lie within their budgetary constraints. However, I would also add that poor people, having higher levels of poverty induced stress, are more likely to seek out high carbohydrate food in any event. That is to say, relatively high stress levels lead to relatively high set point appetites.

In short, give people a difficult life in all respects but food availability and you will get a lot of fat people.
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