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Brexit process
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7362
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
You are literally clueless about the North aren't you


I know all about the North.
It is like the south but different.
Mushy peas and whippet pie are popular foodstuffs.
Racing pigeons are widely kept.
It is colder and darker than in the south.
Villages get buried in snow drifts.
Children who get lost in the snow sometimes get eaten by polar bears.
Beer is cheaper, and better.
Despite the colder weather, a short sleeved shirt without jacket, coat, or pullover is required dress for a night out.
Employment if available at all, is often in dark satanic mills.
Nearly everyone is poor apart from the owners of the dark satanic mills.
The railways use "pacers" a rather nasty type of passenger train made by attaching a bus body to an old goods wagon.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7227
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

In the Northern working class Labour heartlands, Labour voters are highly unlikely to vote Tory no matter how treacherous is the Labour party. They WILL vote for the Brexit party, however, in significant numbers.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10182
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
In the Northern working class Labour heartlands, Labour voters are highly unlikely to vote Tory no matter how treacherous is the Labour party. They WILL vote for the Brexit party, however, in significant numbers.


Not significant enough to take the seats though. Labour will hold those seats.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4932
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://ianssmart.blogspot.com/2019/11/my-second-election-blog-what-worries.html?m=1

Interesting take from ian smart on scottish politics.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10182
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RevdTess wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Look at the main graph on this page, and it shows us something interesting.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election


What's clear from that chart is how much the BXP and Tories vote share mirror each other, and likewise the Labour and LibDem vote shares are a mirror of each other.

So it looks like the BXP took very little from the Labour vote. Instead it's the LibDems who are competing with Labour for votes. I think the main hope for Labour is that Remainers realise that voting LibDem is a lost cause, and that the only (very slim) route to Remain now is via a Labour minority government.


Absolutely. It is a no-brainer. If your top priority is stopping brexit and you live in a lab-tory marginal then you vote Labour.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 464
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:

The railways use "pacers" a rather nasty type of passenger train made by attaching a bus body to an old goods wagon.


That is not a million miles from the truth!
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7227
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The pacers introduced by Northern Rail were only ever supposed to be "temporary". But, have now been in operation long past their intended retirement. They are shite beyond description.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4932
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10326523/general-election-2019-emily-thornberry-labour-polls/

I warned this a couple of weeks ago to widespread sneering by some here.

Some of these central London safe seats are not safe given the lib dem surge.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7227
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10326523/general-election-2019-emily-thornberry-labour-polls/

I warned this a couple of weeks ago to widespread sneering by some here.

Some of these central London safe seats are not safe given the lib dem surge.
It is in these kinds of seats where Labour and Lib Dem votes are interchangable and the reason for that is because the labour MPs and Lib Dem MPs in these seats essentially belong to the same meta-political party and are preaching to the same electoral choir.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7227
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This

https://www.facebook.com/Labourheartlands/videos/440862606806191/?t=668
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10182
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10326523/general-election-2019-emily-thornberry-labour-polls/

I warned this a couple of weeks ago to widespread sneering by some here.

Some of these central London safe seats are not safe given the lib dem surge.


...and that is exactly what Rupert Murdoch wants everybody to think. Thornberry will retain her seat comfortably.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10182
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10326523/general-election-2019-emily-thornberry-labour-polls/

I warned this a couple of weeks ago to widespread sneering by some here.

Some of these central London safe seats are not safe given the lib dem surge.
It is in these kinds of seats where Labour and Lib Dem votes are interchangable and the reason for that is because the labour MPs and Lib Dem MPs in these seats essentially belong to the same meta-political party and are preaching to the same electoral choir.


By the time the election takes place, it will be well understood that the libdems are aiming to enable another tory government. Vote libdem, get Boris Johnson. If so, their votes are absolutely not interchangeable, because the people who vote libdem in north london are generally anti-tory.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4932
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The Tories have at least had better news in the shape of the latest YouGov election poll. Carried out after the Brexit party announced it was standing down in Tory-held seats, it puts the Tories on 42 per cent while the Brexit party is down five points at 4 per cent. If the Tories can keep Brexit party support to this level until polling day the question of whether or not Farage fields candidates in Tory target seats could soon be insignificant. 


Latest YouGov polling.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10182
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/conservative-lead-cut-to-6-points-with-a-month-to-go/12/11/

Quote:

Jeremy Corbyn’s party started the campaign some 16 points behind the Conservatives, with Opinium data from the last week in October showing Johnson on 40 per cent in the polls.

But according to the latest study from Survation, their lead has been cut to just six points with Labour on 29 per cent of the vote and the Tories on 35 per cent.


Latest survation polling... Wink

Survation who were the only polling company to get the result of the last election correct (along with Yougov's experimental method). (remember this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3lx2oopccI). If this poll is right, and Labour are only 6 points behind at this point in the proceedings, then a Labour victory remains a serious possibility.

figures including don't knows:

Con: 30
Lab: 26
LD: 15
BXP: 9
Don't Know: 13

Bear in mind that last time the don't knows broke heavily for Labour.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4932
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2019 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-conservatives-enjoy-14-point-lead-over-labour-poll-11860021

YouGov link. Interesting results.

My own blog post on the ge outcome:

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2019/11/12/uk-general-election-forecast/
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