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Brexit process
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've always thought a 2nd referendum was a bad idea as I'd expect a boycott, "we've already voted!". If the result is a win for remain, but with a several million strong boycott, there's not moral legitimacy.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Serious political crisis, mass protests and quite possibly civil unrest on the streets.

I'm starting to get the sense that the EU have decided that a revoking of article 50 is NOT in the EU interest given that half the uk population would be enraged by the decision.

Better the uk leaves than have it remain as a detached, populist and rogue force. Their greatest fear must be a post revoke electoral backlash which takes Farage to 10 Downing Street where the uk remains part of the EU.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
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Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

One for Ken.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/sep/13/ecb-backlash-stimulus-package-draghi-trade-war-trump-sterling-brexit-business-live
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Serious political crisis, mass protests and quite possibly civil unrest on the streets.

I'm starting to get the sense that the EU have decided that a revoking of article 50 is NOT in the EU interest given that half the uk population would be enraged by the decision.

Better the uk leaves than have it remain as a detached, populist and rogue force. Their greatest fear must be a post revoke electoral backlash which takes Farage to 10 Downing Street where the uk remains part of the EU.
That is what will happen if these bastards stop Brexit. It may or may not be Farage, but it will happen.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Irony is that the eurocrats will have a better grasp of the risks than our very own class of Remainer little traitors in Westminster.
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stumuz1



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Serious political crisis, mass protests and quite possibly civil unrest on the streets.

I'm starting to get the sense that the EU have decided that a revoking of article 50 is NOT in the EU interest given that half the uk population would be enraged by the decision.



No, the EU has double whammy to suffer from a no deal scenario.

1/ UK will go to world trade prices for imports. Roughly 20% cheaper than the EU or EU tariffed imports from rest of the world.
To carry on selling into the UK, EU Exporters will have to match those new prices, a big drop in share earnings for EU companies. Also, UK can now import into EU on the cheaper world prices (+tariff) which will still be cheaper than the current EU prices. EU consumers will not put up paying more and receiving less for just ideology. So, rough guess about 5 Billion in extra Corporation taxes for the UK.

2/ To sell in the UK market at these world prices, the EU will have to match them; they cannot raise prices when the tariffs go on, or they risk selling nothing at all. So these EU exporters must absorb the tariffs. The UK Treasury will receive its £13 billion direct from EU exporters.
This is on top of the 12-13 Billion (gross) the EU will not receive from the UK in Fees for membership.

So 12+ 13 + 5 = roughly 30 billion extra cash for the UK whilst, the EU receives a massive tariff bill, Huge loss in corporate earnings etc.

And you think the EU will not fight tooth and nail to keep us in by fair means or foul?
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
No, the EU has double whammy to suffer from a no deal scenario.

1/ UK will go to world trade prices for imports. Roughly 20% cheaper than the EU or EU tariffed imports from rest of the world.
To carry on selling into the UK, EU Exporters will have to match those new prices, a big drop in share earnings for EU companies. Also, UK can now import into EU on the cheaper world prices (+tariff) which will still be cheaper than the current EU prices. EU consumers will not put up paying more and receiving less for just ideology. So, rough guess about 5 Billion in extra Corporation taxes for the UK.

2/ To sell in the UK market at these world prices, the EU will have to match them; they cannot raise prices when the tariffs go on, or they risk selling nothing at all. So these EU exporters must absorb the tariffs. The UK Treasury will receive its £13 billion direct from EU exporters.
This is on top of the 12-13 Billion (gross) the EU will not receive from the UK in Fees for membership.

So 12+ 13 + 5 = roughly 30 billion extra cash for the UK whilst, the EU receives a massive tariff bill, Huge loss in corporate earnings etc.

And you think the EU will not fight tooth and nail to keep us in by fair means or foul?


You need to do some serious referencing.
More sweeping statements, with numbers plucked from seemingly nowhere.

Personally, I see no basis in reality here.
If it was an easy 30 billion extra cash for the UK, why is nearly every business organisation against Hard Brexit ?
That might not stop somebody putting it on the side of a bus though Very Happy
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I do not think that large scale violent protest is that likely.
If the government announced "We are ignoring the referendum result and staying in the EU" Then that could provoke a violent reaction.

IMHO, such an announcement is most unlikely. Much more likely is a gradual slide towards staying in, without any actual announcement that says in so many words "we are staying in"

A likely first step would be a longer delay, of two years, followed by another few years of studies, reviews and consultations.

It is however prudent to be prepared for large scale disorder, whether caused by Brexit or by something totally unrelated.
The last lot of rioting was a major factor in my decision to leave London.
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stumuz1



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

You need to do some serious referencing.
More sweeping statements, with numbers plucked from seemingly nowhere.


Would you an like academic paper from a professor from a leading economics dept? or one of those lobbyists groups you are so fond of?

Mark wrote:

If it was an easy 30 billion extra cash for the UK, why is nearly every organisation against Hard Brexit ?


If it was an easy 30 billion extra cash for the UK, why is nearly every, lobbyist group that represents an industry being kept afloat by free printed money is against Hard Brexit ?


Why do you think they're against it?
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 8:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, to summarize Labour's current "position":

In terms of Membership, a majority are Remainers. In terms of PLP, very nearly all are Remainers.

In terms of Labour voters, however, it is far from a significant majority. Additionally, it is clear as day that the next GE is going to be fought on Remain or Leave (which is really just a proxy for localism versus globalism) and people are going to vote, irrespective of hitherto party allegiances, according to that primary dichotomy. As things stand, in constituency terms, Leave won the 2016 referendum by a landslide. To be precise:

Lab: 148 Leave | 84 Remain

Con: 247 Leave | 80 Remain

The only real votes we have had since the 2016 referendum (the 2017 GE and the 2019 EU election) both delivered a massive voting preference for parties who promised to enact Brexit (irrespective of their subsequent reneging on those promises).

All of the above is why the Remainers in Parliament do not want an election at this moment under any circumstances whatsoever. This is because they know full well what the electorate will do to them.

Instead, these traitors intend to kill Brexit first, then leave Johnson and co as a lame duck government for the next two years until an election becomes legally inevitable. By which point, it is hoped that all of us plebs out in the country will have got over our initial anger at having Brexit overturned and so we will return to our old tribes, thus allowing for a resumption of business as usual with our fake two party system.

And Labour, under Corbyn, are a part of this treachery.

Labour are f***ed. They are finished. But, then, so is most of the rest of the current political class. The only question that remains is what it is going to take to get rid of them.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/13/boris-johnson-win-general-election-polls-say-otherwise

Quote:

Johnson is sure he would win an election. A closer look at the polls says otherwise
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/13/boris-johnson-win-general-election-polls-say-otherwise

Quote:

Johnson is sure he would win an election. A closer look at the polls says otherwise
Quoting Guardian "analysis" now are you UE..... Laughing

F--k me.... Laughing Laughing Laughing
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:


All of the above is why the Remainers in Parliament do not want an election at this moment under any circumstances whatsoever. This is because they know full well what the electorate will do to them.


Do you actually believe the crap you are writing? The entire opposition is desperate for an election. They are just waiting until Johnson has been forced to extend article 50 or resign as prime minister, since either of those things will damage his electoral prospects.

Quote:

Instead, these traitors intend to kill Brexit first, then leave Johnson and co as a lame duck government for the next two years until an election becomes legally inevitable.


The probability of that happening is nil. There will be an election this year, guaranteed.


Quote:

And Labour, under Corbyn, are a part of this treachery.

Labour are f***ed. They are finished. But, then, so is most of the rest of the current political class. The only question that remains is what it is going to take to get rid of them.


I think brexit has driven you over the edge, Steve. Your posts are nothing short of bizarre, not least because you spend your entire time attacking Labour, even though Labour are still committed to at least offering a "credible leave option" at a referendum. That's compared to the SNP and LibDems, both of whom just want to revoke article 50.

For some reason, you desperately want Labour to be finished, even though it is very obvious that they are nothing of the sort. Johnson can't deliver brexit on October 31st, an election will be called immediately afterwards, and the most likely outcome is a minority Labour government. Your continual frothing at the mouth will not change this.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/13/boris-johnson-win-general-election-polls-say-otherwise

Quote:

Johnson is sure he would win an election. A closer look at the polls says otherwise
Quoting Guardian "analysis" now are you UE..... Laughing

F--k me.... Laughing Laughing Laughing


At least it is vaguely rational. Your own posts are increasingly nonsensical drivel. If you think there's going to be no election this year, or that Johnson can win after failing to deliver brexit, you are going to be rather disappointed.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 9:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Mark wrote:

You need to do some serious referencing.
More sweeping statements, with numbers plucked from seemingly nowhere.


Would you an like academic paper from a professor from a leading economics dept? or one of those lobbyists groups you are so fond of?


No doubt that some nutty professor somewhere has come up with a paper and posted it on line to get his 5 minutes of fame.
I haven't even heard BoJo or Farage come out with that kind of twaddle...
Meanwhile, back in the real world.....
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