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Brexit process
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5568
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (-1)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 17% (-3)
BREX: 13% (-)
GRN: 4% (+1)

via @ComRes, 06 - 08 Sep


And Kantar has

Con 38%
Lab 24%
Lib 20%
Brx 7%

So the result of an election now is anybody's guess
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Did the EU do anything about compelling the French to comply - Nope.


Err, you mean like UK killing thousands of people with illegal levels of air pollution?


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/17/uk-taken-to-europes-highest-court-over-air-pollution

We have been breaking this law for at least a decade
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adam2
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Posts: 7337
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Quote:

Did the EU do anything about compelling the French to comply - Nope.


Yes, this is a fundamental problem with the EU. It applies its rules and standards when it suits, and feels free to ignore them when that suits. And most of the people involved in the decision are unelected, and the process by which those decisions are taken are completely opaque.

At the end of the day, it is far too close to institutionalised corruption.


Yes, and it is also a problem with UK application of EU rules.
In France TPTB only enforce those EU rules that are considered to be good for French interests.
In the UK, TPTB rush to enforce most rules even when they are clearly contrary to our interests.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Westminster voting intention:

CON: 30% (-1)
LAB: 29% (+2)
LDEM: 17% (-3)
BREX: 13% (-)
GRN: 4% (+1)

via @ComRes, 06 - 08 Sep


And Kantar has

Con 38%
Lab 24%
Lib 20%
Brx 7%

So the result of an election now is anybody's guess


Indeed, they are all over the place. Part of the problem is that the polls don't specify if the election is going to be before brexit, after brexit, after what sort of brexit, or what length of extension if there is another one. Or whether there is a tory-bxp pact, etc...

The only take home message is to take no notice of any polls.
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kenneal - lagger
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
UE, what is coherent about seeking to renegotiate a deal to leave while also saying that you will campaign to remain. That is about the most incoherent thing that I have ever heard.


No, not incoherent. It is unusual, but that is because the situation is unusual, and has been imposed on the Labour Party. Also, it is not clear that the entire party will campaign to remain.

Labour has to represent both its own leave voters and its own remain voters. That necessarily requires a complex position.

EDIT: It has now emerged that Labour would allow its MPs a free choice on which side to campaign.


Because a large part of the Labour vote wants to Leave and a large part of the activists want to Remain Labour is going into an election trying to face both ways at once. This will result in the Brexit Party and the ilLibantiDems winning at the expense of Labour. The Tories could face a problem but Labour could face annihilation.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The latest Yougov poll cuts Tory lead over Labour by 5% over last week's poll. All other parties unchanged.

Given other factors being equal this suggests the Boris Bounce is fading rapidly.

Tactically, I can see why Labour wants an election delay. Everything Johnson says or does further alienates the middle ground voters.

I somehow doubt the supreme court will declare proroguing of parliament illegal.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's because it is not illegal. Or, at leas,t if it is deemed to be illegal, that would beg the question of why every other prorougment before it was not
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Snail



Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Has it been deemed illegal because of Boris's intentions behind it: to stifle debate rather than simply the usual suspension. So his advice to the queen was false?

But how was this proven?

We pretend the civil service is neutral, but it isn't really. Same with the law perhaps.

I think its bad news when the law gets involved in politics. Especially in a biased, choosy fashion.

British democracy has worked pretty well I think. We've avoided the extremes which have proved popular in Europe. Yet, it seems to be being nibbled away bit by bit.

Thanks to unthinking remainers and their apologists. Consequences are important!
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:


Because a large part of the Labour vote wants to Leave and a large part of the activists want to Remain Labour is going into an election trying to face both ways at once.



I don't agree. There is no reason why the Labour Party needs to be united on this. There is not some law of nature that requires political parties have to be as extreme on brexit as the liberal democrats and brexit party are. It is perfectly reasonable for them to declare they will hold a referendum and allow their own MPs a free choice of which side to campaign on. This simply recognises the fact that the Labour Party and its voters are split.

I genuinely don't understand why people have a problem with this.

Quote:

This will result in the Brexit Party and the ilLibantiDems winning at the expense of Labour. The Tories could face a problem but Labour could face annihilation.


I think you are wrong. Most Labour leavers care more about public services than they do about leaving the EU. I personally doubt the brexit party will win any seats at all. As for the libdems winning at labour's expense, this is highly unlikely because of the lack of libdem-labour marginals. Of the 45 top target seats for the libdems, only 5 are held by labour, and the only 2 in the top ten are leave-voting seats in Yorkshire.

http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

That is why Swinson is so anti-Corbyn. She's not interested in wooing Labour voters. She's after the anti-no-deal tory vote.

Tactical voting will help Labour. There are a lot of lab-tory marginals where remainers who'd like to vote libdem or green will back Labour to keep the tory out. Labour's position may not be the full remain they want, but voting for the libdems will just help Johnson deliver no deal.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Snail wrote:
Has it been deemed illegal because of Boris's intentions behind it: to stifle debate rather than simply the usual suspension. So his advice to the queen was false?

But how was this proven?


It is self-evidently true. The purpose of proroguing was supposedly to get a new Queen's Speech through, to set out a new legislative program. But how can Johnson implement a new program with a majority of minus 46? He can't do anything at all unless he can win an election.
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Snail



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is that a good answer? Couldn't a minority government garner support on an issue by issue basis? Theoretically.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Snail wrote:
Is that a good answer? Couldn't a minority government garner support on an issue by issue basis? Theoretically.


Theoretically, yes. In reality, in this parliament? No way. Johnson has made too many enemies. The opposition will VonC him the moment article 50 has been extended. They just want to make him suffer for a while first.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Government have now released, Operation Yellowhammer: HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions. It's actually quite an interesting read even ignoring Brexit, just read it thinking about our system's dependencies and fragilities.

Interestingly this is the exact same document leaked last month, except the title. It used to be described as "BASE SCENARIO". Now it's been rebadged to "HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions".

It's always intriguing when something is redacted, only one section has been redacted but thanks to the earlier leak we know what it says anyway (why do they bother?!). This is the redacted section:

"15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries."
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:

I don't agree. There is no reason why the Labour Party needs to be united on this. There is not some law of nature that requires political parties have to be as extreme on brexit as the liberal democrats and brexit party are. It is perfectly reasonable for them to declare they will hold a referendum and allow their own MPs a free choice of which side to campaign on. This simply recognises the fact that the Labour Party and its voters are split.

I genuinely don't understand why people have a problem with this.



So offering people a referendum with the choice of voting for a deal that no one in their right mind would take or voting to remain would be looked upon as acceptable and fair by Labour leave voters, would it?

I don't think they are quite that stupid and I would feel my intelligence was being insulted.

In those circumstances I would campaign for people to boycott the referendum or spoil the paper by adding "leave no deal" so that it looked like the mockery of justice and democracy that it would be.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nick Hubble's thoughts on the next country to leave the Euro after Italy.

Quote:
Readers of How the Euro Dies are about to get déjà vu. Consider this a bonus chapter to the book. Because the euro isn’t just causing trouble in Italy.

Imagine a country with 8% GDP growth and 0% interest rates.

Sounds stupid, right? The sort of unstable economic policy that leads to housing bubbles and busts.

But it’s standard economic policy in the eurozone. All those countries have to share one interest rate, after all. Despite the fact that they’re facing completely different economic conditions.

My book focuses on how this keeps Italy on Struggle Street. Its new government has the support of a third of the population according to polls, and a recession is on the cards. That’s going to work out well…

Especially next month, when the budget drama with the EU begins again. But this time, it won’t be able to just assume more economic growth to make the maths go away. Austerity will be real and nobody in government will stand up to it.

Back to the second country to leave the euro. This one has a different reason to Italy. Instead of a permanent recession, Ireland gets flung around like a rag doll by the currency. Economic booms at rates that made me choke on my coffee this morning. And busts that led to half of Ireland camping on my front porch in Melbourne in 2012.

Before you accuse me of being clueless about the Emerald Isle, I’d like to pre-empt some of the hate mail…

I’ve been back to Ireland a few times since my family lived there in the mid-90s. My sister was born there. Her Irish godmother taught me plenty about how not to behave like a spoiled brat. In 2016 we went to her local pub and the Irish finance minister Michael Noonan sat behind me. I was too shy to get a scoop.

The year before that, the chairman of the Management Committee of the Irish Rugby Football Union helped me pack my van to move house in Brisbane, Australia. His daughter was my babysitter in Limerick when we lived there. She came to my wedding in Australia this year.

In fact, Ireland seems to be the only place I’ve stayed in touch with people. Even though we left more than 20 years ago. I’ve followed its booms and busts closely. And I think it's going to be the second country to leave the euro.

This has nothing to do with Brexit, by the way. At least, I don’t think that’ll be a big factor, even if it is quoted as such. Don’t forget how the Irish voted on the Maastricht Treaty first time around…

My argument is all about the insanity of the euro. And the way it creates and exacerbates the boom and bust cycle. A cycle which Ireland is eventually going to get sick of because it experiences it more than most.

At one point in 2016, the Irish statistics office reported a 26.3% increase in GDP. But the country still had 0% interest rates…

The boom was due to a corporate tax cut attracting multinational companies. (Brexit suggestion anyone?)

But it’s the gap I’m interested in. 0% interest rates and 26% GDP growth. Or just last year’s 8% GDP growth at 0% interest rates. This is utter lunacy. Downright dangerous. Anywhere else in the world, it would get a central banker fired. Because we all know what comes after such a boom…

The Irish certainly know. Their boom in the early 2000s was driven by supportive monetary policy designed for Germany, which was struggling at the time. Instead of helping Germany recover, the funds flooded to the booming GIIPS.

The European Central Bank (ECB) kept rates too low, waiting for Germany to recover, while the GIIPS boom got out of control. Actually, that should read GIPS. Italy didn’t have a boom.

The euro’s monetary policy-driven bubble usually shows up in house prices for a simple reason. Houses are the most interest rate-sensitive asset because they need so much debt financing.

It seems odd to me that people don’t expect housing bubbles and busts if they think monetary policy is a good idea. Economist Milton Friedman was the best person ever to explain how price controls lead to surpluses and shortages. But price controls on the interest are a good idea, according to him. Even though they lead to precisely the outcome you’d expect under his usual analysis. Surpluses and shortages of debt. Housing booms and busts.

Ireland went through all that. The boom in the early 2000s. And the bust at the turn of the decade. The Irish banking sector was the poster child. Requiring some rather shocking shenanigans when it came to the bailout.

But it didn’t learn its lesson it seems. Because the boom is back.

Actually, that’s unfair. I suppose it doesn’t have a choice but to accept the unstable boom. Unless it leaves the euro and begins to set its own monetary policy…

Dublin house prices are out of control, rising more than 12% last year. The result is familiar. The Irish Times reports:

House prices in Dublin are now more than nine times the average salary, a level not seen since the heady days of the boom, prompting some experts to suggest that we’ve reached peak affordability.


The same is happening in Germany this time. It’s amongst the booming economies this cycle, with a housing bubble so severe the government is capping rents. While ECB interest rates stay low for the likes of Greece and Italy, it’s tough to contain the bubble in Germany and Ireland.

All that’s left is for the Irish to realise it’s the common currency that’s creating the problem. It’s driving the boom and bust cycle by setting one interest rate and monetary policy for different economies at different points in the economic cycle.

The consequences are what you’d expect. And I think that in the next bust, those consequences will be severe enough to make leaving the euro mainstream. Especially given just how low rates are this cycle.

The income vice of 0% interest rates continues to squeeze the eurozone’s savers. In Germany, a political movement is underway to stop interest rates on deposits from going negative. People paying to save money is very un-German, apparently. My Aussie bank account charges a $5 fee per month unless I deposit a certain amount, so I’m not sure what all the fuss is about…

But I certainly do feel for all the people who have lost their “risk free” income. Zero Hour Alert readers will know why risk free is in quotes. Money in the bank is far from risk free these days. Which is why government bonds are popular with those looking for something even safer, whatever the return.

Back to the point. People opting out of the risk-based financial system are now robbed of any return, thanks to the 0% interest rate of the ECB. This has ruined retirement plans of many. And pension funds aren’t being honest about where it leaved their dependents either. For now, the capital gains on bonds are providing a nice boost. But at some point, the funds need to be rolled into no-return investments, or worse.

Income is dead in stockmarkets too. Dividend stocks are at record-cheap levels relative to growth. People are taking wild risks just to eek out some returns.

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