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Brexit process
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 1138
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here comes the stitchup:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/david-davis-stripped-hardline-brexit-minister-department-clear/
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
Posts: 2159

PostPosted: Fri Jun 16, 2017 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't think the situation is clear as yet. I am waiting to see the agreement with the DUP.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10851
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
Here comes the stitchup:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/13/david-davis-stripped-hardline-brexit-minister-department-clear/


Yep. It goes well beyond that, too.

This article on ConservativeHome, and especially the comments, have now convinced me of something I've been tending towards for the last few months: Brexit is effectively dead; it isn't going to happen.

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2017/06/iain-dale-is-the-chief-whipss-hand-behind-the-knifing-of-pro-leave-ministers-in-this-reshuffle.html

I actually thought it was going to take longer than this to die. I thought we'd be half way through the negotiating process and it would become obvious that the consequences of both a hard brexit or a soft brexit were so severe/risky that there wouldn't be a majority in support of it, either in parliament on in the country. I still believed this would be the likely outcome, even if the tories won a large majority. But this election result has precipitated the crisis now.

Theresa May does not have a the votes in the commons to push through a hard brexit. She's therefore going to have to shift to trying to negotiate a soft brexit, but the EU will make sure it hurts like hell and her own party is going to be in total disarray. There may or may not be another election very soon - it is possible that she's going to end up in such a mess that she has to call one, leading to a Labour government of one sort or another, or she might struggle on for a few months. But either way, there is going to have to be another referendum. Labour can only maintain its political momentum by offering one, and the tories will end up in a position where they'll also have to offer one if they are still clinging to power. And this time Remain will win, easily.

Leave only won last time because neither side explained what Brexit really meant. People voted leave for all sorts of different reasons, some of which are incompatible with each other. For some it was immigration, for others it was about repatriation of laws, for others it was a hatred of the unaccountable bureaucracy in Brussels, for other it was a belief that the UK would be economically better off if we leave, or that we could "have our cake and eat it." Some just voted leave because they were p*ssed off with the establishment and wanted to upset the applecart.

But whatever the reasons, we now find ourselves with a tory party which has lost its majority and is preparing to row back on a hard brexit, even though this will lead to an internal tory civil war, and a Labour party sitting on gains it can only hold onto by holding onto the votes of disgruntled remoaners. This is going to seriously aggravate Labour leave voters, but this won't make any difference. Why not? Because if the tory party is also rowing back on Brexit, then there is no point in them voting tory in a future election. In such a situation, UKIP comes back into play, but only as a receptacle for protest votes.

RIP Brexit. 2015-2017.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7792
Location: UK

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You have no idea if Remain will win UE.

They may, but given that at the election those parties openly advocated ignoring the result of the referendum by pushing for some form of continued membership were hammered whilst the two parties acknowledging Leave (however disingenuously that may have been) were not hammered, there is nothing in the election result to allow one to conclude this means people now no longer want Brexit to occur.

Furthermore, a storm is coming right around the bend in the world economy and it is all kicking off in Greece right at this moment. Not to mention the possibility of civil unrest across other part of Europe.

All of which could push our electorate in any direction.
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adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7772
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
-----------

Furthermore, a storm is coming right around the bend in the world economy and it is all kicking off in Greece right at this moment. Not to mention the possibility of civil unrest across other part of Europe.

All of which could push our electorate in any direction.


Greece looks pretty much as normal to me, am I missing something ? The most recent news seems to be another bail out a couple of days ago.
_________________
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1178
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
I don't think the situation is clear as yet. I am waiting to see the agreement with the DUP.


Laughing That could be some time.

The dupers attitude is that whatever they get can never possibly be good enough and they must have more. Theirs will not be a one shot shakedown but they will keep coming back looking for extra concessions and handouts as the price of their continuing "support".

This process is generally called extortion .


Last edited by Potemkin Villager on Sat Jun 17, 2017 9:05 pm; edited 1 time in total
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10851
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
You have no idea if Remain will win UE.


I'm making a prediction. I think I have more than an idea. If I turn out to be wrong, then I'll be wrong...

I am more confident that Brexit isn't going to happen now than I was that the tories would lose their majority, put it that way.

Quote:

They may, but given that at the election those parties openly advocated ignoring the result of the referendum by pushing for some form of continued membership were hammered whilst the two parties acknowledging Leave (however disingenuously that may have been) were not hammered, there is nothing in the election result to allow one to conclude this means people now no longer want Brexit to occur.


That argument depends on the assumption that Brexit played a major part in most people's decision on who to vote for, and I don't think that's true. I don't even think you really believe it is true. And even if you think Brexit played a major role, then it is obvious that a lot of people voted Labour because they believed this would lead to a "softer brexit". Take the seats in Brighton & Hove for example. There was little point in anybody voting LibDem in those seats, and in fact Farron's views on homosexuality and abortion meant that a large proportion of the local population couldn't possibly vote LD. Those seats were tory-Labour marginals (apart from Brighton Pavilion, which is Green). They are now safe Labour seats, one of them with a majority of 18,000. But Brighton was also one of the most heavily remain-supporting areas outside London. Are you seriously telling me that those 18,000 people who supported Labour did so because they wanted a soft brexit? Of course not. They are remainers who voted Labour because, all things considered, it was the only sensible thing to do.

Quote:

Furthermore, a storm is coming right around the bend in the world economy and it is all kicking off in Greece right at this moment. Not to mention the possibility of civil unrest across other part of Europe.

All of which could push our electorate in any direction.


I agree there is a lot of unpredictable stuff going on at the moment, but some things are becoming very clear: Theresa May is finished, and even if she gets a Queen's Speech through parliament she will not be able to pass any legislation that is even remotely contentious. We have also seen her reshuffle and it is very obvious that she has re-arranged the government to be pro-remain instead of pro-brexit. I can see no way, politically or practically, that she can implement a "no deal" or "hard" brexit. Which leaves her trying to negotiate a decent soft brexit from a position of profound weakness and with an EU which has made clear that "brexit has to hurt." And she'll be doing this with the euroskeptic right of her own party claiming that the tory party is finished unless she takes the UK out of the single market and the customs union. This is all pretty much guaranteed, IMO.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10851
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:


This process is generally called extortion .


Yes, and for what? So Theresa May and the tories can avoid facing another general election, and that is all. They will not be able to get anything done, especially not anything controversial. May will be just be occupying Number Ten, a Zombie Prime Minister, while the euroskeptic and europhilic factions in her party fight like rabid cats. Hardly a recipe for recovering in the polls.

The DUP won't call a vote of no confidence and will support her if anybody else calls one, so it boils down to a question of how long it takes for a large enough group of tories to decide that enough is enough, and topple their leader. Whoever takes over will call an election very quickly.
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1178
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 7:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would love to be a fly on the wall on Monday to see the discomfort of whoever is outlining the UK case of just what they are hoping to achieve in the Brexit "negotiations". Her maj's speech on Wednesday promises to be quite surreal as well.

Said it before and am sure i will say it again that you really couldn't make this stuff up. Has politics ever been quite as dysfunctional as this before?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10851
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Potemkin Villager wrote:
Has politics ever been quite as dysfunctional as this before?


Not this side of the industrial revolution.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5830
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd feel more sorry for your UK predicament if my own government was not falling to pieces in front of my eyes. All in all I think your chances of coming out on top are better then mine.
Keep a stiff upper lip , carry on, and all that. Wink
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10851
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
I'd feel more sorry for your UK predicament if my own government was not falling to pieces in front of my eyes. All in all I think your chances of coming out on top are better then mine.
Keep a stiff upper lip , carry on, and all that. Wink


Ha! Yeah, Trump has provided quite a bit of entertainment in recent months, but our "predicament" is now sort of eclipsing it. Trump was never going to last a full term in office.

And actually our "predicament" is not so bad. It is the Tory party who are in trouble - deep trouble.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some food for thought for Labour voting Remoaners. I am currently struggling to understand where, exactly, Corbyn is going with Brexit - what he'd try to do if he gained power, bearing in mind his best successes last week were in heavily-remain-voting bits of the south-east.

Most people I know who are pro-Labour in the south are also very anti-brexit. This article offers a different perspective. Maybe belonging to the EU (not Brexiting) would actually tie Corbyn's hands regarding a socialist revival in the UK. Even more tantalising...maybe a socialist brexit in the UK, involving the implementation of policies more economically left wing than currently allowed by the EU, will tip the balance against neoliberalism in the EU. Brexit as a force for change towards the left, rather than the right.

Quote:
Itís hardly surprising that the Labour Party made a point of embracing Brexit. After all, so much of its manifesto is in direct violation of European Union law. Corbyn has vouched to regain control over energy supply networks, discriminate against companies that donít recognize trade unions, and actively support struggling industries through state aid ó ideas the European Commission and the European Court of Justice would find very difficult to accept. Only by leaving the EU can the party hope to implement its pledges.

In Brussels, people are wary. Frankly, everything was going well enough. European institutions and member countries were happy with the way Brexit negotiations had been shaping up. They could hardly have asked for a better opponent than a coterie of Conservatives trapped ó fairly or unfairly ó in the political maze of imperial nostalgia.

Now, theyíre not so sure. If Corbyn were to take over as prime minister, Brexit could become the vehicle for a movement of socialist renewal ó something that might capture the imaginations of southern Europeans, who have longed for exactly that for years.

These past weeks there have been whispers in Spain and France that perhaps the reason Corbyn is prospering while French and Spanish socialist parties risk extinction is that he, unlike them, is soon to be free of EU shackles.

Forget hard or soft Brexit ó itís really about whether Britain goes left or right after Brexit.


http://www.politico.eu/article/how-a-socialist-brexit-could-reshape-uk-and-europe/
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 701
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's weird how the leavers here are thinking that brexit may be dead, whereas me, as a remainer, think it's going full steam ahead, perhaps not a hard brexit (but any brexit is a 'hard' one to me I guess).

All this s**t about "people voted for brexit" winds me up to, the ONLY clear option of that ballot paper was remain - you had a good idea what it stood for, whereas leave changed depending on what politician you asked.

Bah, we're probably up s**t creek either option now anyway.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
It's weird how the leavers here are thinking that brexit may be dead, whereas me, as a remainer, think it's going full steam ahead, perhaps not a hard brexit (but any brexit is a 'hard' one to me I guess).


I keep changing my mind! It looks like it is "going full steam ahead", but I have a feeling that it is very likely to end up being derailed. I could be wrong. Maybe the EU will be more reasonable than I'm expecting them to be - maybe their current position is just a negotiating position and they'll eventually decided to offer the UK a reasonable deal rather than make an example of us. If so it could still go ahead. But there do seem to be an awful lot of ways it could go horribly wrong.
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