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Brexit process
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4000

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The planet will not be dead in 200 years, despite the prophets of doom. It will not be dead, probably, in millions of years, unless the sun has a mini-nova, then it might look like Mars.
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:44 pm    Post subject: Voted Reply with quote

Vote for Hunt now gone into post.

I had ZERO intention of doing that ... but seeing Boris in person scared me so I had no choice.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 190
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Nobody actually knows what is coming...


Oh of course we do!

One day, you and I and everyone we know will die. Same with the planet. Everything other than that is pretty much just the details of knowing the future.


Depressing, but true....
We'll get 70/80/90 years each, if we're lucky....
At the rate we're going, how long do we give the planet before it's dead - 200 years ?


With luck, and a lack of a substantial cosmic collision, the planet is good to go until the Sun boils away the atmosphere and oceans and turns it into a lifeless rock, prior to subsuming it during its red giant phase.

Just because humans are unhappy with whatever the most recent climate changes are doesn't mean the planet dies any more than it did when the dinosaurs were wiped out or the Azolla helped turned the place into its current icebox configuration.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4000

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:22 pm    Post subject: Re: Voted Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
Vote for Hunt now gone into post.

I had ZERO intention of doing that ... but seeing Boris in person scared me so I had no choice.


Of course you had a choice, and you chose to vote for Jeremy K Hunt, who wrote a book in 2005 about how to dismantle the NHS.

Better keep your fingers crossed you don’t get sick if he gets to be PM, because his colleague Matthew Handcock who will likely be in his cabinet, is a technophile who thinks we can have smart everyting (except for government ministers who are a bunch of liars and not very smart. Look at the minister at the end of this).

Handcock is also a corporate whore who would like to inject all children with toxic chemicals while telling people they are “safe and effective”. For a critique on that, see this
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Mon Jul 15, 2019 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1138864/Brexit-news-tory-crisis-labour-MPs-defections-Liberal-Democrats-Ed-Davey

Quote:

Tory CRISIS: Party facing mass exodus to rival Lib Dems as MPs make 'unthinkable' plans
THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS could be set to welcome MPs defecting from Labour and the Conservatives, leadership candidate Sir Ed Davey has sensationally claimed.


What was that about Turkeys not voting for Christmas?

If just two tory MPs in strongly remain-voting seats defect to the libdems, Johnson's working majority has gone and he will probably lose a VonC. And those MPs would stand an excellent chance of holding on to their seats.

Labour defectors to the libdems are less important, since they make no difference to the timing of an election.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8062

PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
If just two tory MPs in strongly remain-voting seats defect to the libdems, Johnson's working majority has gone and he will probably lose a VonC. And those MPs would stand an excellent chance of holding on to their seats.

Who do you have in mind? Which Tories are currently sitting in strong remain seats, where they could defect, stand as LibDem and win?

Take Richmond Park 71% remain, Zac Goldsmith won with 28,588 votes in 2017... problem is Lib Dems were 2nd with Sarah Olney getting 28,543 votes! Goldsmith can't defect to LibDems - they already have a 'real' Lib Dem candidate, they would never chose him over Olney.

Chelsea and Fulham is more interesting, again 71% remain with Tory Greg Hands holding a large majority over Labour. He could defect to Lib Dems and stand on their pro-remain ticket... however, Lib Dems only took 11% of the vote in 2017. It would be an incredible swing for them to win (only 5.2% in 2015).

Hard to see where a Tory could defect and stand on a LibDim ticket with any chance of winning. In strong remain areas, Lib Dems already have well established local parties and candidates - they are unlikely to accept a turn-coat Tory.

So yes, a few pro-remain Tories could defect, bring Boris down through losing a vote of no confidence - however, they'd probably go on to lose the seats in the following election.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greg Hands in Chelsea and Fulham is exactly the sort of seat the LibDems might win after a defection. Although I doubt he's top of the list as a potential defector.

You're right it does rather depend on the seat, so we need to find out who these potential defectors actually are.
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oobers



Joined: 05 Dec 2005
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Location: Hebden Bridge

PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we should now have a second referendum. I’d like the options to be:
A) Would you like to leave the EU?
B) Would you like to remain in the EU?
If A), would you like to 1) leave with the deal as currently offered by the EU?or
2) leave with no deal?
So, it would be a 2 part question, to avoid the split of the leave vote. Is that feasible?
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
Posts: 196

PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 8:36 pm    Post subject: Re: Voted Reply with quote

I chose NOT to vote for a party entertainer with a hypnotic pull over his acolytes.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oobers wrote:
I think we should now have a second referendum. I’d like the options to be:
A) Would you like to leave the EU?
B) Would you like to remain in the EU?
If A), would you like to 1) leave with the deal as currently offered by the EU?or
2) leave with no deal?
So, it would be a 2 part question, to avoid the split of the leave vote. Is that feasible?


No. The problem is that it forces people who want no deal to set themselves up for a deal-exit, which for many is the worst possible outcome. They can't vote to leave in the first part without risking getting an outcome that is even worse than remaining. So this would be rejected by most supporters of a no deal brexit as being rigged in favour of May's deal.

May's deal should not even be on the ballot paper. The only sane format, IMHO, is remain vs no deal.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4655
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 16, 2019 10:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Policy wise, Hunt and Boris seem to have converged.

Both have rejected the backstop (even a time limit).

Both endorse a no-deal by October if a better deal cannot be negotiated.

Both advocate public spending increases and tax cuts(slight variations of both).

So, it seems to be more about style than substance in the final choice, if you take their positions at face value.

In regard to the Labour side, 2 MP's have now endorsed no deal over no Brexit. That is interesting since the media focus entirely on the anti-no deal MP's on the Tory side.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7252971/Fresh-Labour-split-second-MP-says-No-Deal-no-Brexit.html

Quote:
A Labour MP who voted against Theresa May's Brexit deal three times has said she would now 'take No Deal' if it meant the UK actually leaves the EU.

Sarah Champion said she had been playing 'poker' when she voted against the existing deal because she hoped defeats would force Mrs May to improve her offer.

But Ms Champion today appeared to concede the strategy had backfired and had resulted in her now having to accept that a No Deal Brexit may be the only way to deliver on the result of the 2016 EU referendum.

Ms Champion becomes the second Labour MP to have spoken publicly about potentially supporting a No Deal split from Brussels after Caroline Flint did the same last month.

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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6864
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hunt has merely been forced to ape Johnson's position because he knows that attitudes are hardening generally on Brexit in the wider population and are already hard as granite among the Conservative party membership.

Meanwhile, there are, by all accounts, about 26 Labour MP's who would vote for no deal over another extension.

The reality of their own imminent political mortality is finally beginning to dawn on the minds of MPs in Westminster.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am now convinced that Johnson has resigned himself to fighting a general election he doesn't want. I think if he attempts any other path, he'll eventually be forced into that election (pre-brexit), and has decided that it is tactically better to look like he's in control of events by calling it himself.

The Brecon and Radnor by-election might never happen. Johnson may decide it is better to go for the general election before that by-election allows people to get a feel for how the BXP/tory dynamic is playing out.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Hunt has merely been forced to ape Johnson's position because he knows that attitudes are hardening generally on Brexit in the wider population and are already hard as granite among the Conservative party membership.


I'd put it slightly differently. I think it is obvious that May's backstop really is dead, in the sense that there is no possible timeline where this parliament ratifies it. Attitudes are polarising, because support for the compromise position has collapsed completely.

Quote:

Meanwhile, there are, by all accounts, about 26 Labour MP's who would vote for no deal over another extension.


All 26 would also take a general election over no deal.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jul 17, 2019 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From tomorrow's Times:
Quote:

Boris Johnson wants to hold an early general election “while Jeremy Corbyn is still around”, senior allies have said as his team plans to overhaul the Conservative Party’s campaign machine.

The frontrunner for the Tory leadership appeared tonight at a fundraising dinner with his rival, Jeremy Hunt, that was attended by 100 Conservative donors in an attempt to boost the party coffers and build an election war chest.

The £1,000-a-head event in central London, where donors questioned the candidates directly, was intended to help to secure more than £1 million. Sources said that the party had been left in “dire financial straits” under Theresa May after donors abandoned it amid concerns over Brexit.

Sir Edward Lister, who is charged with overseeing Mr Johnson’s first 100 days in power if he wins the leadership, is planning to ramp up recruitment and pump more money into Conservative headquarters to ensure that the party is on an “election footing”.

The party has released extra funding for the final hustings tonight at the Excel centre in east London to create a rally-style atmosphere. The new leader will be announced on Tuesday morning at the QEII centre in Westminster.

Mr Johnson has made clear that holding an election before Brexit has been delivered would be an “absolute folly”. Senior allies said, however, that planning was under way to go to the polls by the summer of next year.

Members of Mr Johnson’s team are concerned that getting legislation through parliament with a majority of three, as is expected after a by-election next month, could prove impossible.

Sir Edward’s team is said to be preparing for a general election either being forced on the party in a vote of no confidence or Mr Johnson having to call a snap election once Brexit was delivered.

One senior member of Mr Johnson’s team told The Times: “There’s a desire to get this done while Corbyn is still around. Labour is utterly divided — Brexit is killing them. Labour is in no fit state to fight a general election.”

There is concern among Mr Johnson’s team that the Labour leader could be forced to stand down after bruising rows within the party over Brexit and antisemitism. Another member of Mr Johnson’s team said: “Jeremy Corbyn being opposition leader is a positive for us. It means we don’t have to spend time doing the groundwork we’ve already done on him on his successor.”

This week Mr Johnson used a head-to-head debate with Mr Hunt to hit out at the “semi-Marxist, job-destroying lunacy” of Mr Corbyn. He suggested he believed that the Labour leader was personally antisemitic.

A spokesman for Mr Johnson said, however: “There are no plans for an election before 2022. The focus is on winning the leadership campaign.”

Dominic Grieve, a former attorney-general, said that ex-cabinet ministers could be among those who feel they have no choice but to vote down a Johnson administration to prevent a no-deal.

The pound fell by nearly 1 per cent today, to its lowest level since April 2017, on renewed fears of a hard Brexit.

At the donors’ dinner Mr Johnson was asked if he would support a third runway at Heathrow and whether he was prepared to prorogue parliament to deliver a no-deal. Mr Hunt was questioned on his tax plans and whether there was “too much power” in the hands of bodies such as the Electoral Commission, which fined the Vote Leave campaign and referred it to the police.

Donors who were invited included Roger Gabb, who has given the party £717,950 but nothing since the 2017 election; Jamie Diner, a hedge fund manager who has given £290,000; Mohamed Amersi, who has given £267,000; and Alan Halsall, who has donated £142,000.


There you have it. Johnson is going to adopt May's first strategy: "Corbyn is hopeless, we should be able to beat him easily."

Got to love this line:

Quote:

It means we don’t have to spend time doing the groundwork we’ve already done on him on his successor.”


Euphemism for "gargantuan smear campaign".
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