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Brexit process
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4627
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boris has already said that in that eventuality he will reluctantly go for hard Brexit in 31 October.

Whether he actually will is another matter but rory is v clear that he is totally opposed to a hard Brexit.

I do like rory, he is a very British oddball and apart from brexit seems to be a reasonably sensible centre right politician.

But Tory activists understand, better then many mps, why getting Brexit done is key to the survival of the party.

So does boris by his own comments. Its boris to lose.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5493
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The seems to be quite a strong establishment backlash against Johnson. The foreign office is quite open in saying he was an utter disaster as foreign secretary, a senior member of the party said on R4 this morning that he would resign the party if Johnson wins.

He is being called out as a liar and morally unfit to be PM.

How that will go down with the membership is yet to be seen.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 1065
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Mark wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.


That's what you, LJ, Stumuz etc. repeated ad nauseam before the 29th March deadline....., and the 12th April deadline.....
Why so confident that the 31st October deadline will be any different ??


Indeed, and at least two candidates for the tory leadership contest have already said that the October "deadline" is no such thing and could be extended.
I know not exactly how this this would be achieved but it seems clear that a majority of MPs wish to remain in the EU, and that if they can not achieve staying in, will use whatever means are available to delay, frustrate, and water down Brexit.


No response from our friend in Moscow....
Rory for PM.....???
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9607
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Boris has already said that in that eventuality he will reluctantly go for hard Brexit in 31 October.

Whether he actually will is another matter but rory is v clear that he is totally opposed to a hard Brexit.


That's not the question. The question is whether he actually can. And if the tory membership start wondering if perhaps the answer is no, Boris might just find himself in trouble.

Quote:

I do like rory, he is a very British oddball and apart from brexit seems to be a reasonably sensible centre right politician.

But Tory activists understand, better then many mps, why getting Brexit done is key to the survival of the party.


There's no question that if Brexit is not delivered, the tories face extinction. But if Stewart keeps asking "But how??" and Johnson can't give a believable answer, this contest could change very quickly.

The others are not serious contenders. Hancock is pulling out, Hunt and Gove are two well known and both loathed by electorate, as well as being a bit slimy/wobbly on brexit. Raab comes across as a bit of a psychopath, and is proposing something impossible (proroguing parliament). And Javid is Asian and won't make the last four.

But Rory Stewart is a fresh face, clearly very intelligent and actually trying to tell people the truth (as he sees it). I can see enough tory MPs switching to him at the last moment to ensure he stays in the competition for each successive round, and once he starts to build momentum then he might displace all of the others one by one.

And in a Johnson vs Stewart runoff among the members, he's got a whole month to bash Johnson over the head with that question: "How are you going to deliver, Boris?"
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5493
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To quote my own post, these numbers are an interpretation from flavible.com

It is hard to see the party ignoring these numbers, if they are a genuine reflection of the public mood



PS_RalphW wrote:
Latest polls from Comres has voting for 6 of the PM candidates.

With Stewart , Brexit gets 188 seats and Tories get 52

With Johnson, Tories get 370 seats and Brexit get 1

So it looks like Boris will be unstoppable on those numbers. Even if the Labour bill to refuse no-deal exit passes, all Boris has to do is call an immediate election, and he will have enough Tory seats to force through whatever he wants.

I cannot see tory MPs voting themselves out of power by keeping Johnson off the ballot.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6785
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
adam2 wrote:
Mark wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.


That's what you, LJ, Stumuz etc. repeated ad nauseam before the 29th March deadline....., and the 12th April deadline.....
Why so confident that the 31st October deadline will be any different ??


Indeed, and at least two candidates for the tory leadership contest have already said that the October "deadline" is no such thing and could be extended.
I know not exactly how this this would be achieved but it seems clear that a majority of MPs wish to remain in the EU, and that if they can not achieve staying in, will use whatever means are available to delay, frustrate, and water down Brexit.


No response from our friend in Moscow....
Rory for PM.....???
"our friend in Moscow"?

What a blitheringly idiotic thing to post
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6785
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
Boris has already said that in that eventuality he will reluctantly go for hard Brexit in 31 October.

Whether he actually will is another matter but rory is v clear that he is totally opposed to a hard Brexit.


That's not the question. The question is whether he actually can. And if the tory membership start wondering if perhaps the answer is no, Boris might just find himself in trouble.

Quote:

I do like rory, he is a very British oddball and apart from brexit seems to be a reasonably sensible centre right politician.

But Tory activists understand, better then many mps, why getting Brexit done is key to the survival of the party.


There's no question that if Brexit is not delivered, the tories face extinction. But if Stewart keeps asking "But how??" and Johnson can't give a believable answer, this contest could change very quickly.

The others are not serious contenders. Hancock is pulling out, Hunt and Gove are two well known and both loathed by electorate, as well as being a bit slimy/wobbly on brexit. Raab comes across as a bit of a psychopath, and is proposing something impossible (proroguing parliament). And Javid is Asian and won't make the last four.

But Rory Stewart is a fresh face, clearly very intelligent and actually trying to tell people the truth (as he sees it). I can see enough tory MPs switching to him at the last moment to ensure he stays in the competition for each successive round, and once he starts to build momentum then he might displace all of the others one by one.

And in a Johnson vs Stewart runoff among the members, he's got a whole month to bash Johnson over the head with that question: "How are you going to deliver, Boris?"


So, here we are again UE. Seamlessly moving from "observing" to promoting a line. I'm noticing a pattern.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9607
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:


So, here we are again UE. Seamlessly moving from "observing" to promoting a line. I'm noticing a pattern.


Nope, still observing.
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Blue Peter



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 1939
Location: Milton Keynes

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
To quote my own post, these numbers are an interpretation from flavible.com

It is hard to see the party ignoring these numbers, if they are a genuine reflection of the public mood



PS_RalphW wrote:
Latest polls from Comres has voting for 6 of the PM candidates.

With Stewart , Brexit gets 188 seats and Tories get 52

With Johnson, Tories get 370 seats and Brexit get 1

So it looks like Boris will be unstoppable on those numbers. Even if the Labour bill to refuse no-deal exit passes, all Boris has to do is call an immediate election, and he will have enough Tory seats to force through whatever he wants.

I cannot see tory MPs voting themselves out of power by keeping Johnson off the ballot.


A bit of as caveat (whole tweet thread):

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1138722325707284481

Quote:
Quick thread to explain this rather intemperate response (and apologies for being rather rude in it). Essentially, the problem is that this poll ignores a number of obvious methodological problems which make it very hard to treat it as informative



Peter.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5493
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blue Peter wrote:


A bit of as caveat (whole tweet thread):

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1138722325707284481

Quote:
Quick thread to explain this rather intemperate response (and apologies for being rather rude in it). Essentially, the problem is that this poll ignores a number of obvious methodological problems which make it very hard to treat it as informative



Peter.


All true, but as point 8 says, the publication of this poll in itself will lead MPs (and maybe party members) to take it at face value and act accordingly.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5493
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest yougov poll has Labour and Tories losing ground to LD and the Farage party lead cut to 4%.

Flavible predicts these numbers would have LD second with 141 seats and Tories down to 41.

The resulting hung parliament could not muster a credible coalition either pro or anti brexit.

No indication of Johnson effect here, but probably the poll was before he won the first round.

EDIT

What would happen if this result happened, and Farage got more seats than LD/Lab/Con combined?

Could Farage form a government? Would he have enough talent to fill his cabinet posts? How long before the party goes the way of UKIP?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9607
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:

Could Farage form a government? Would he have enough talent to fill his cabinet posts? How long before the party goes the way of UKIP?


If Farage had a majority he would have to form a government.
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
Posts: 183

PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How that will go down with the membership is yet to be seen
I am a party member - and no way could I ever vote for Johnson.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9607
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
How that will go down with the membership is yet to be seen
I am a party member - and no way could I ever vote for Johnson.


I think Johnson has blown it. Hiding from the media? Refusing to take part in the TV debates at all, until pressured by Hunt, and then only taking part in the second one in the hope that Stewart has already been eliminated by then. Looks weak, looks like he is scared of being exposed to tough questioning (probably from both sides, from Raab and Stewart).

Stewart has momentum. I think votes might fall away from Javid in the next round and some tory MPs will vote for Stewart in order to keep him in the race and make sure Johnson has to face those tough questions, and he won't be able to convincingly answer them.

Politics has been throwing up weird, unexpected results in the last few years. Maybe there's another surprise coming. There is only one "stop Boris" candidate, and it is Rory Stewart.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4627
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2019 9:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can't see it myself but who knows! Politics has thrown up some surprises in the last few years!

If it wasn't for Brexit I would say rory could pull it off.

We will see.
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