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Brexit process
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If a WTO Brexit is taken off the table, then the Brexit party will be the largest party in parliament at the next GE.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
If a WTO Brexit is taken off the table, then the Brexit party will be the largest party in parliament at the next GE.


I think that is possible, but only if the BXP is very clever about its manifesto. If it is an ERG-type manifesto (lower taxes for the rich, privatise the NHS, etc..) then a lot of working class leavers will not vote for them. If it can unite the leave (no deal) vote then it could be the biggest party, but it can't have only one policy. It needs the (economically) left wing leavers.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/11/labour-to-launch-bid-to-block-new-pm-from-forcing-no-deal-brexit

Quote:
It is unclear what form those measures to prevent a no-deal departure, which remains the legal default, could take.

Some MPs, including the Lib Dem leadership candidate Ed Davey, have suggested making it the legal default that a prime minister must revoke article 50, rather than leave without an agreement. It is unlikely, however, that such a radical move could garner the necessary cross-party backing.


What I suspect is that parliament can do is stop parliament being suspended to put through no deal. That I suspect is doable.

However, you can't legally stop no-deal itself given that this is the legal default.

UPDATE - latest news is that this procedure is designed to use law to stop any Tory PM from suspending parliament to force through hard Brexit.

And Eurointelligence are skeptical of the whole parliament will stop no deal...
Quote:

Ten little monkeys jumping up and down - down mostly

We never cease to be amazed how the media cannot spot very obvious contradictions in Brexit discussion. Take for example the position of the UK foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, one of the better-placed candidates for the Tory leadership. He is the one who compared the EU with the Soviet Union and who mixed up Slovakia and Slovenia, and yet he is somehow seen as a serious candidate.

His position on Brexit is the following: the UK must deliver Brexit before the next elections; parliament will vote against No deal, so this off the table; hence he wants to renegotiate the deal with the EU. Readers of Eurointelligence probably have no difficulty spotting the weakness of the argument. And, if you happen to live in Brussels, you will probably want to tear your hair out.

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, falls into the same category, except that he has fleshed out his unicorn renegotiation with a little more detail. Hunt and Hancock are essentially pursuing the same strategy as Theresa May - keeping the UK in an endless Brexit remorse loop.

We can whittle down the 10 Tory contestants to two positions that are at least internally consistent. On the soft Brexit side, there is Rory Stewart who recognises that the existing deal is unchangeable and who wants to cut a deal with Labour. We think this might just work. It would probably split the Tory party one more time, but at least it would deliver Brexit, and keep the Tories broadly anchored in the centre of politics.

The other position is that of Dominic Raab, who is ready to prorogue the House of Commons to achieve Brexit.

Boris Johnson seems to fall in the camp of Raab - except that no one is really sure about this. All he said is that he wants to deliver Brexit by end October, but hasn’t told us how. Johnson is still the favourite, but this is going to be a long campaign.

Our impression is that Tory activists have a more acute understanding of the issue than many commentators. We noted a discussion between three heads of Conservative local constituency associations last night in one of the minor BBC channels. What struck us is that they were able to see through the renegotiation fairy tale. They also hadn’t made up their mind yet. They all liked Johnson, but for different reasons. And they all considered other candidates as well. Our impression right now is that Johnson is ahead of them all, and that Raab and Gove would also be favoured. Support for Hunt is relatively strong among MPs, but not so strong among Tory members.

We agree with Andrew Lilico, who writes in the Daily Telegraph that whoever is chosen as party leader, and by extension as prime minister, will end up facing a general election. We disagree with his and other commentators’ inference that it would only take three or so Tory MPs to secure a majority in a no-confidence vote. For starters, a vote of no confidence would trigger immediate elections. Even if you find ten Tory MPs who might be willing to lose their seats on a matter of principle, you may find that there are opposition MPs who do not - including the five remaining in Change UK and the six who recently defected from that party. Also, if the sole purpose is to get Brexit over the line, a vote of no confidence is the most likely scenario in which a prime minister might be tempted to use prorogation. In that situation the question of proroguing vs not proroguing is one between facing the electorate not having delivered Brexit, and facing the electorate right after a no-deal Brexit. Each alternative has its own risks, but we think that not delivering Brexit is politically more risky.

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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.


That is what parliament is going to change on Wednesday.

Quote:

What I suspect is that parliament can do is stop parliament being suspended to put through no deal. That I suspect is doable.

However, you can't legally stop no-deal itself given that this is the legal default.


Of course you can legally stop it. Parliament makes the laws, Beria. It made the law that no deal is the default, and it can change that law. All that is required is the mechanism (which will be supplied by Bercow) and the commons majority (which we already know exists).
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Beria:

Quote:

We agree with Andrew Lilico, who writes in the Daily Telegraph that whoever is chosen as party leader, and by extension as prime minister, will end up facing a general election. We disagree with his and other commentators’ inference that it would only take three or so Tory MPs to secure a majority in a no-confidence vote. For starters, a vote of no confidence would trigger immediate elections. Even if you find ten Tory MPs who might be willing to lose their seats on a matter of principle, you may find that there are opposition MPs who do not - including the five remaining in Change UK and the six who recently defected from that party. Also, if the sole purpose is to get Brexit over the line, a vote of no confidence is the most likely scenario in which a prime minister might be tempted to use prorogation. In that situation the question of proroguing vs not proroguing is one between facing the electorate not having delivered Brexit, and facing the electorate right after a no-deal Brexit. Each alternative has its own risks, but we think that not delivering Brexit is politically more risky.


Yes, as I have been saying for months now, this has to end with a general election. Quite soon. Where I disagree with this is that proroguing parliament is an option. Parliament is going to stop it, and even if parliament didn't stop it, The Queen would not agree to it, because it would threaten the constitutional position of the monarchy. There would be a very real possibility of a Corbyn government coming under pressure to get rid of the monarchy.

I think there's going to be a general election in August.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree re ge and unlikehood of suspending parliament.

Regarding changing the legal default of no deal what would parliament would change too UE? Automatic triggering to revoke article 50.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Agree re ge and unlikehood of suspending parliament.

Regarding changing the legal default of no deal what would parliament would change too UE? Automatic triggering to revoke article 50.


I don't know.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/06/labours-motion-could-stop-no-deal-brexit-and-trigger-early-election

Quote:

Labour have tabled a cross-party motion to seize control of the parliamentary agenda, which, if passed, would give MPs the ability to introduce legislation on 25 June to prevent a no deal Brexit.

It underlines the essential truth of the British constitution: that if you have a parliamentary majority, then you can do whatever you want.


Quote:

No fewer than three MPs who have consistently voted against any measure to stop or delay Brexit have privately accepted that, if in October they have a choice between voting to revoke Article 50 and a no-deal Brexit, they will reluctantly choose to revoke – an indication that when push comes to shove, the Labour rebels who have cancelled out some Conservative dissenters will not pick no-deal over no Brexit.


Quote:

If the motion does pass, does it mean that we are inevitably heading towards an election? Given that Boris Johnson, the frontrunner in the Conservative race, has vowed to take the United Kingdom out of the European Union by 31 October come what may, he might be forced into one. However, Johnson’s close allies believe that, when push comes to shove, Parliament will step back from actually voting to revoke Article 50, the one way that MPs can actually prevent a no-deal Brexit. “People say Parliament stopped a no-deal Brexit,” one pro-Johnson Cabinet minister says, “It’s not true. Theresa May stopped a no-deal Brexit.”

Are they right? Well, we won’t know for certain by the end of tomorrow, but if Parliament won’t at this stage vote even to take a measure of control over the process, Johnson’s gamble may be proved correct. If Parliament does vote for Labour’s motion, however, then the United Kingdom is a great deal closer to preventing a no-deal Brexit – and to another general election.


For me, all roads lead to a general election, and fairly swiftly. How we get there I don't know, but if no deal is taken off the table (by any means) then the options narrow to revoking, a deal-vs-remain referendum and an election, and I believe that if the tories are faced with that choice, they will choose the election. The only leader candidate to have actually answered that question is Leadsom, and she chose the election.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-course-140-seat-majority-general-election-becomes/

Boris gets back Tory vote to 37 per cent... the rest of the contenders are stuck in the 20's.

I wonder, if during a Boris honeymoon in the next few months a ge, with Tories back on a lead and a few populist policies to champion, might be enough to get then a slim majority in a October ge.

Similar to the recent election in Australia where everybody assumed the Left would win. They didn't and Crosby was all over that one.

Crosby is also advising Boris...
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest polls from Comres has voting for 6 of the PM candidates.

With Stewart , Brexit gets 188 seats and Tories get 52

With Johnson, Tories get 370 seats and Brexit get 1

So it looks like Boris will be unstoppable on those numbers. Even if the Labour bill to refuse no-deal exit passes, all Boris has to do is call an immediate election, and he will have enough Tory seats to force through whatever he wants.

I cannot see tory MPs voting themselves out of power by keeping Johnson off the ballot.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/11/boris-johnson-course-140-seat-majority-general-election-becomes/

Boris gets back Tory vote to 37 per cent... the rest of the contenders are stuck in the 20's.

I wonder, if during a Boris honeymoon in the next few months a ge, with Tories back on a lead and a few populist policies to champion, might be enough to get then a slim majority in a October ge.

Similar to the recent election in Australia where everybody assumed the Left would win. They didn't and Crosby was all over that one.

Crosby is also advising Boris...


This it total delusion, Beria. If Parliament blocks no deal, which it will, then Boris's entire strategy collapses. He turns into May Mk II, committed to delivering something which cannot be delivered.

The truth is that no deal cannot be delivered without changing parliament, and Johnson's honeymoon is going to last about ten minutes.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
Even if the Labour bill to refuse no-deal exit passes, all Boris has to do is call an immediate election, and he will have enough Tory seats to force through whatever he wants.


Bring it on!!

However, I don't believe you can trust any projections about vote share and seats in a general election this summer with Boris in charge of the tories. None of the models are any good.

Would there be a BXP-Tory pact? Would the BXP disband? Not unless Johnson has a plan to deal with tory MPs like Amber Rudd. How would the tories hold Hastings? Rudd is a committed remainer with a majority of 385. Unless she stands down, the BXP will stand against her and Labour will comfortably take the seat.

So it is really hard to predict. However, I do think this gamble is probably the best option available to the tories, for both their survival as a party and as a last roll of the dice to get brexit through.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, Johnson's best move is probably a general election ASAP, out Brexit the Brext party, agree a pact with them so they didn't stand in Tory marginals in exchange for for a role in government. His aim would be to contain BP to Labour areas.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Exactly.

Eurointeligence...

Quote:
What to focus on in the Brexit procedure, and what not

There is another attempt today by the House of Commons to seek control of the legislative agenda. Another of those Cooper-Letwin amendments is in the works. We think this is largely irrelevant. The purpose this time would be to make it illegal for a prime minister to prorogue, or suspend, parliament.

In reality it is unlikely to come to that. The EU will extend the deadline only if there is an election or a referendum. The UK parliament is not in a position to force a Brexit delay.

If Boris Johnson wins the Tory leadership race, we think he will want to seek an immediate election to gain a mandate to take the UK out of the EU by October 31. The fragmentation of UK politics and the first-past-the-post system is likely to work in his favour. We noted a poll this morning, by ComRes, which attempted a constituency-level breakdown of the UK vote. It shows that Johnson is the only Tory leadership candidate with a hope to secure a majority of seats - in fact a whopping majority with almost 400 seats. None of the others come even close. This massive gap in seats does not reflect on Johnson's popularity, but on the simple fact he is the only candidate who can neutralise the Brexit Party. The Brexit Party would otherwise eat into Tory support in many marginal constituencies. With Rory Stuart as leader, the Conservatives would be down to 51 seats - behind the LibDems - and the Brexit party would end up with 252 seats. That won't happen of course, since Stewart has no chance of getting elected leader.

It is still best to think of Brexit as a political process, and not to focus too much on parliamentary tricks. That's the reason we think that a no-deal Brexit is not related to the eccentric instrument of prorogation, but to the likelihood of Johnson winning the leadership race.

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Mark



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.


That's what you, LJ, Stumuz etc. repeated ad nauseam before the 29th March deadline....., and the 12th April deadline.....
Why so confident that the 31st October deadline will be any different ??
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adam2
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
UE - I will remind you that by legal default we are leaving on 31st October 2019.


That's what you, LJ, Stumuz etc. repeated ad nauseam before the 29th March deadline....., and the 12th April deadline.....
Why so confident that the 31st October deadline will be any different ??


Indeed, and at least two candidates for the tory leadership contest have already said that the October "deadline" is no such thing and could be extended.
I know not exactly how this this would be achieved but it seems clear that a majority of MPs wish to remain in the EU, and that if they can not achieve staying in, will use whatever means are available to delay, frustrate, and water down Brexit.
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