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Brexit process
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4709
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yup - no deal - BRING IT ON.

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/brexit-theresa-may-s-final-act

Quote:
Reportedly, he (Boris) has been having one-to-one meetings with his fellow MPs to do just that. Sometime ago, there was a well-founded belief that if Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party at least five MPs would resign the whip. Since then, Change UK, a dustbin of disillusioned Remainers has been formed with eleven MPs, three of which were Conservatives. It has been a complete failure and a sharp lesson to other would-be jumpers, so there are likely to be no more defections on a Johnson leadership.

Johnson has also been taking the advice of Lynton Crosby, probably the most successful political strategist today. It was Crosby who advised Scott Morrison in last weekend’s Australian election, when the expected Labour opposition victory was successfully overturned. He also advised Johnson in his successful elections as Mayor of London in 2008 and 2012.

This is interesting, because Johnson appears to be working to a carefully constructed plan. He avoids press comment over Brexit and writes about anything else in his Monday column at the Daily Telegraph. His contributions in Parliament have been brief, the few on Brexit generally confined to democracy rather than trade. He has positioned himself to rescue the party from electoral destruction if called upon, rather than appear to be an overtly ambitious politician, unlike all the other contenders. It is quite Churchillian, in the sense there is a parallel with Churchill’s election by his peers to lead the nation in its darkest hour. He even wrote about it in a recent bestseller, The Churchill Factor,[iv]and understands intimately what it took for Churchill to gain the support of the House.

It is therefore hardly surprising Johnson is the favourite to succeed Mrs May. His appreciation of free markets means he is not frightened by trading with the EU on WTO terms. Furthermore, President Trump admires him, and would be likely to fast-track a US trade deal with the UK. However, Johnson is likely to pursue a deal on radically different terms on a take-it-or-leave-it basis with no further extensions to Exit Day.


Thats one view. Boris will deliver hard Brexit.

Here's the alternative. Yes, UE, from our old friends Eurointelligence...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Quote:
So this is it. Theresa May will today announce the date when she will formally resign as leader of the Conservative Party. The day is expected to be in the week of June 10. Her resignation will trigger a Conservative leadership election, with a first round among MPs and a final run-off between the two winners among Tory members.

May will remain prime minister until her successor is elected. The polls have Boris Johnson in a very strong lead. The leadership contest could, in theory, go on all the way until the end of July. But it could end early if the other candidates conclude that they stand no chance of beating Boris. In this case, he could be prime minister before the end of June.

The FT cites sources that May was in a fragile state during the discussions yesterday, which were attended by her husband Philip. The date was chosen so that she would still be prime minister and party leader during the state visit by Donald Trump on June 3-5.

The second reading of the withdrawal agreement is now indefinitely off the table. The Times reports that May could be using her remaining time in office to kick-start legislation on the less controversial parts of the withdrawal agreement bill, those focusing on citizens' rights and the transition period. The Telegraph reports that the latest events were precipitated when Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, told her to drop the bill as he would not be in a position to support it.

So this detail of UK politics is settled. And now what?

The UK's political class will discover that the majorities in the House of Commons are what they are. The UK parliament still has no majority for a Brexit deal, and it might put up obstacles for a no-deal Brexit. A new Tory leader has yet to regain the voters the Tories will have lost in yesterday's European election.

We noted the discussions on both sides are once again drifting off into unicorn-land. A conservative commentator yesterday expressed confidence that Johnson would resurrect the Malthouse Compromise. We had hoped never again to report on this wretched idea of dropping the Irish backstop, but here we are. And the Remain side seeks comfort in the illusion that there is no majority in the House of Commons for a no-deal Brexit, conveniently ignoring the fact that it is the legal default position.

Most of those commentators do not have a clue about EU law or EU politics. The danger of a no-deal Brexit remain significant. The only tools the UK parliament has at its disposal to prevent it are passing of the withdrawal bill, unilateral revocation of Brexit, or a successful no-confidence vote. We see no majority for any of these.

Our main scenario is that Johnson will become PM and that he will try, and fail, to re-negotiate the withdrawal treaty. At this point he will confront the House of Commons with a straight choice between deal or no-deal. If May had done this, the Commons would have passed her bill, and she would remain prime minister.

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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4709
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 8:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-clear-favourites-to-win-peterborough-by-election-say-the-bookies-1-8936300

Quote:
The Brexit Party are the clear favourites to win the upcoming by-election in Peterborough, according to the bookies.

The party, which is contesting its first ever parliamentary election, is currently odds-on to win with every bookmaker.

Labour, which was made favourites straight after the by-election was called, are now second favourites, with best odds of 6/4.


Now this is where it gets interesting folks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results/local/p

It voted leave with 61% of the vote in 2016.

Now the BP is odds on favourite to win and take a seat from Labour.

UE - are you still complacent about the threat posed to Labour seats in the midlands and north from the Brexit Party?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-party-clear-favourites-to-win-peterborough-by-election-say-the-bookies-1-8936300

Quote:
The Brexit Party are the clear favourites to win the upcoming by-election in Peterborough, according to the bookies.

The party, which is contesting its first ever parliamentary election, is currently odds-on to win with every bookmaker.

Labour, which was made favourites straight after the by-election was called, are now second favourites, with best odds of 6/4.


Now this is where it gets interesting folks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/eu_referendum/results/local/p

It voted leave with 61% of the vote in 2016.

Now the BP is odds on favourite to win and take a seat from Labour.

UE - are you still complacent about the threat posed to Labour seats in the midlands and north from the Brexit Party?


That is a loaded question.

I have explained my position clearly: as long as labour is losing seats much more slowly than the tories, then labour's position is vindicated. As things stand, I don't believe the Brexit Party can win a general election.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So...we now have a group of tory MPs saying they are willing to use the "nuclear option" of supporting an opposition VonC in order to prevent no deal (can't find a link, but it has been reported on the news and people are talking about it elsewhere). That is a potential show-stopper for Boris. It means if he wins then he will face an immediate general election.
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UndercoverElephant



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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matt Hancock for leader!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403705

Quote:

There is no point in me becoming Prime Minister unless I am willing to be brutally honest about the trade-offs required to get a brexit deal through THIS parliament.


Except if we are being brutally honest, there is no way he or any other tory Prime Minister is going to be able to get any brexit deal through THIS parliament. So, if we are being brutally honest, what is required - the only possible way out, given that he admits parliament won't allow no deal or a referendum, and he won't contemplate revocation, is a general election.
But also came slithering out of this snake's mouth this morning:

Quote:

There will be no general election before brexit.


and

Quote:

We need a new leader for the future, not just now.


This **** would be worse than May and worse than Johnson. He starts off by pronouncing his own brutal honesty while simultaneously peddling a serious lie about brexit, rules out the only route out of the impasse and makes a claim on occupying Downing Street for the long term. Seriously - God help us if he wins.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank God he won't UE.

I've reached the conclusion the only way we get out is through a hard Brexit. No way parliament will agree to any deal.

In that sense boris is right.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat May 25, 2019 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Thank God he won't UE.

I've reached the conclusion the only way we get out is through a hard Brexit. No way parliament will agree to any deal.

In that sense boris is right.


And what if ten remainer tory MPs threaten to support an opposition VonC if the new tory leader tries to go for no deal? Then what?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/25/moderate-tories-launch-stop-boris-johnson-campaign

Quote:

After May bowed to pressure on Friday and announced she would resign as Tory leader within two weeks, justice secretary David Gauke and international development secretary Rory Stewart condemned Johnson’s readiness to embrace a no-deal, saying it would be hugely damaging to the national interest.

The move, part of a concerted “anti-Johnson” push by opponents of a hard Brexit, followed comments by the former foreign secretary on Friday, soon after May’s resignation speech in Downing Street, that the UK would definitely leave the EU “deal or no deal” on 31 October if he became leader in July.

The remark infuriated the soft-Brexit wing of the party, with some MPs and ministers even warning that there would be “serious numbers” of moderate Conservatives who would be ready to vote down a Johnson government if he set the country on a path to no deal.


The choice facing the incoming Prime Minister is looking like:

(a) general election now.

or

(b) zombie government until such time as you've accepted we need a general election.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Greer's latest...

Quote:
Forecastingintelligence, it’s been a three ring circus over on your side of the pond, with no shortage of clowns and dancing bears. My guess is that BoJo will get the nod and proceed to leave the EU without a deal. All he has to do is say that there can be a deal if a majority in the House of Commons approves it; we’ve already seen that no option commands more than a minority — so he can say, “Look, if you can’t make up your minds, no-deal is the legal default, and out we go.” Leaving the EU is much less difficult than the pundits would like it to be — do you recall how Slovakia and the Czech Republic separated in six months, with minimal fuss? What’s more, if BoJo goes full Brexiteer, the Tories can win back the voters they’ve lost to Farage. On the other hand, if the Tories put in a Remainer and the circus continues, I think the words “Prime Minister Farage” will no longer be an absurdity — and may end up becoming a reality.


And a similar take on Boris...

https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/brexit-theresa-may-s-final-act

Quote:
Reportedly, he has been having one-to-one meetings with his fellow MPs to do just that. Sometime ago, there was a well-founded belief that if Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party at least five MPs would resign the whip. Since then, Change UK, a dustbin of disillusioned Remainers has been formed with eleven MPs, three of which were Conservatives. It has been a complete failure and a sharp lesson to other would-be jumpers, so there are likely to be no more defections on a Johnson leadership.

Johnson has also been taking the advice of Lynton Crosby, probably the most successful political strategist today. It was Crosby who advised Scott Morrison in last weekend’s Australian election, when the expected Labour opposition victory was successfully overturned. He also advised Johnson in his successful elections as Mayor of London in 2008 and 2012.

This is interesting, because Johnson appears to be working to a carefully constructed plan. He avoids press comment over Brexit and writes about anything else in his Monday column at the Daily Telegraph. His contributions in Parliament have been brief, the few on Brexit generally confined to democracy rather than trade. He has positioned himself to rescue the party from electoral destruction if called upon, rather than appear to be an overtly ambitious politician, unlike all the other contenders. It is quite Churchillian, in the sense there is a parallel with Churchill’s election by his peers to lead the nation in its darkest hour. He even wrote about it in a recent bestseller, The Churchill Factor,[iv]and understands intimately what it took for Churchill to gain the support of the House.

It is therefore hardly surprising Johnson is the favourite to succeed Mrs May. His appreciation of free markets means he is not frightened by trading with the EU on WTO terms. Furthermore, President Trump admires him, and would be likely to fast-track a US trade deal with the UK. However, Johnson is likely to pursue a deal on radically different terms on a take-it-or-leave-it basis with no further extensions to Exit Day.


And finally our old friends at Eurointelligence...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Quote:
So this is it. Theresa May will today announce the date when she will formally resign as leader of the Conservative Party. The day is expected to be in the week of June 10. Her resignation will trigger a Conservative leadership election, with a first round among MPs and a final run-off between the two winners among Tory members.

May will remain prime minister until her successor is elected. The polls have Boris Johnson in a very strong lead. The leadership contest could, in theory, go on all the way until the end of July. But it could end early if the other candidates conclude that they stand no chance of beating Boris. In this case, he could be prime minister before the end of June.

The FT cites sources that May was in a fragile state during the discussions yesterday, which were attended by her husband Philip. The date was chosen so that she would still be prime minister and party leader during the state visit by Donald Trump on June 3-5.

The second reading of the withdrawal agreement is now indefinitely off the table. The Times reports that May could be using her remaining time in office to kick-start legislation on the less controversial parts of the withdrawal agreement bill, those focusing on citizens’ rights and the transition period. The Telegraph reports that the latest events were precipitated when Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, told her to drop the bill as he would not be in a position to support it.

So this detail of UK politics is settled. And now what?

The UK’s political class will discover that the majorities in the House of Commons are what they are. The UK parliament still has no majority for a Brexit deal, and it might put up obstacles for a no-deal Brexit. A new Tory leader has yet to regain the voters the Tories will have lost in yesterday’s European election.

We noted the discussions on both sides are once again drifting off into unicorn-land. A conservative commentator yesterday expressed confidence that Johnson would resurrect the Malthouse Compromise. We had hoped never again to report on this wretched idea of dropping the Irish backstop, but here we are. And the Remain side seeks comfort in the illusion that there is no majority in the House of Commons for a no-deal Brexit, conveniently ignoring the fact that it is the legal default position.

Most of those commentators do not have a clue about EU law or EU politics. The danger of a no-deal Brexit remain significant. The only tools the UK parliament has at its disposal to prevent it are passing of the withdrawal bill, unilateral revocation of Brexit, or a successful no-confidence vote. We see no majority for any of these.

Our main scenario is that Johnson will become PM and that he will try, and fail, to re-negotiate the withdrawal treaty. At this point he will confront the House of Commons with a straight choice between deal or no-deal. If May had done this, the Commons would have passed her bill, and she would remain prime minister.


As always the EuroI boys are more bullish on an eventual deal then myself. I'm sticking with Greer's call and my own gut call for a while now - Hard Brexit.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2019/03/28/brexit-update-can-the-hard-brexiteers-pull-it-off/
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 4:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All - my latest FI post on Brexit.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/2019/05/26/brexit-update-clowns-circuses-and-would-be-churchills/
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7037
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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm fed up of the general "consensus" view that the young are, by dint of inherent predilection, all Remainers with the implied further assumption they will continue in that view as they get older.

1) On the European continent, in many countries the Remain/Leave age-demographic divide is almost the reverse of what it is in the UK.

2) As the EU continues lurching form crisis to crisis, there are no solid grounds to assume that young people in the UK will continue to be majority remainer.

3) There is every reason to assume that they will become more conservative (small c) in their outlook as they get older. In the UK at least, as mentioned above, this transcribes as being on the Leave side of the EU debate.

4) Whatever else is true, young people are the least likely to get off their arses and actually vote. This means their projected share of the vote should always be adjusted downwards to reflect this.

5) Last, but not least, in terms of the starkest likelihood of voting Remain, by age. This is actually in the 18 - 24 year age range where 70% would have voted Remain. I say "would have" because, of course, hardly any of them actually got off their arses to vote. In the slightly more like to get off their arse and vote age range of 25 - 49, the difference between Leave and Remain becomes far less pronounced with Leave coming in at 46% and Remain at 54%.

In short, the age-demographic argument about voting intentions vis a vis the EU is largely illusory.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4709
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Largely agree LJ.

When I was a student I was a diversity loving liberal. I still remember with shame when I was waiting to see a film in Shepards Bush (v multicultural area of London) when an old white lady said to me that she felt like a stranger in her own area. I primly told her that I liked the diversity of SB and walked off.

I was 20 at the time.

I've changed and I'm sure some will also change their views of the EU as they get older.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4025

PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 5:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Matt Hancock for leader!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48403705

Quote:

There is no point in me becoming Prime Minister unless I am willing to be brutally honest about the trade-offs required to get a brexit deal through THIS parliament.


Except if we are being brutally honest, there is no way he or any other tory Prime Minister is going to be able to get any brexit deal through THIS parliament. So, if we are being brutally honest, what is required - the only possible way out, given that he admits parliament won't allow no deal or a referendum, and he won't contemplate revocation, is a general election.
But also came slithering out of this snake's mouth this morning:

Quote:

There will be no general election before brexit.


and

Quote:

We need a new leader for the future, not just now.


This **** would be worse than May and worse than Johnson. He starts off by pronouncing his own brutal honesty while simultaneously peddling a serious lie about brexit, rules out the only route out of the impasse and makes a claim on occupying Downing Street for the long term. Seriously - God help us if he wins.


Yes, Matt Hancock may be a ****, but I couldn’t possibly say that. I can say that I wrote to my MP after he pronounced that all children should have a mandatory measles vaccine to protect the world from this horrendous death and blindness inflicting disease. He is a prostitute for anyone who wants to pay for his services. Doesn’t say much for his qualities as possible leader, except they are woefully inadequate.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun May 26, 2019 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RIP two-party politics in the UK. Very Happy

Tories are going to elect a no-dealer and Labour will be forced to back a referendum. Election this year.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder what that will bring.

Brexit Party voters - almost certainly all leave
Conservative - some remain, some leave
Labour - some remain, many leave
Lib Dem - many remain, some leave
Green - probably nearly all remain.

It will be interesting to see the final votes for each party.

I cannot understand why the remain supporters still think they can overturn the referundum result. It seems the ruling from the Royal Courts of Justice

https://youtu.be/7w0Z1yy9mOo . I don’t much like the presenter or the style, but the information could be significant.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon May 27, 2019 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
I wonder what that will bring.


Chaos.
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