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Brexit process
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 649
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 10:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Why? Around 40 per cent of the public back it (enough for a majority) and if done well could lead to a economic boom.


Because once brexit is over it'll not be an issue people vote on anymore. After 6 months the majority of people will just be relieved it's over one way or the other. I do believe that the tory party CAN survive revoking article 50 if they're prepared to be in opposition for a term although it would take a skillful leader but they're most likely to get one with slightly more skills that Grayling.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4605
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cubes - how many leave voting Tory voters do you know?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6762
Location: UK

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 10:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It wont be over after Brexit because Brexit is a mere place marker along the road to something much bigger and anyone who thinks it will be over if A50 is revoked is deeply, laughably, dangerously deluded.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9578
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2019 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It feels like something is breaking tonight. When May goes (surely before the end of Monday, more likely tomorrow), all hell is going to break loose.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 1922 executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasn’t announced she’s resigned by Friday, they will open it.

That's it then.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9578
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The 1922 executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasn’t announced she’s resigned by Friday, they will open it.

That's it then.


I heard it was June 10th they will open it, and that the result is already known (the rule change will happen). She's almost certainly going to resign tomorrow, which is about as bad timing and undignified as possible, since quite a few very loyal tories won't turn out or will vote Brexit Party just to make sure she does actually go.

The fascinating thing about what follows is that the 14+ leadership contenders are actually going to have to make very clear what their stance on no deal is, in full knowledge that the more no-dealy they are then the more likely it is the membership will choose them in the final two, but the less likely it is that the parliamentary party will let them reach the final two. Going to be very interesting what Boris says. Can't see anybody getting away with fudging it.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6762
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote



https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1130287/brexit-party-polls-latest-labour-conservatives-european-elections-latest-nigel-farage
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5486
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May is refusing to resign and has again delayed her withdrawal bill. It will not now be presented before June, and no vote in the first week of June.

She simply refuses to give up.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9578
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 1:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
May is refusing to resign and has again delayed her withdrawal bill. It will not now be presented before June, and no vote in the first week of June.

She simply refuses to give up.


Refusing to give up when you are mathematically defeated is a sign of mental illness. She's turning into Imelda Marcos.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

May is insane and her party are too spineless to do her in. It's f***ing hilarious. I'm beginning to think more and more, she has the character of Gordon Brown. There is something asbergic/autistic about her. One way or another, there is some key psychological component missing from her makeup.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Something that I have been reading about today:

Roughly 5% of the U.K. population are EU citizens but not U.K. citizens.

These people are eligible to vote in the European elections but were not eligible to vote in the Brexit referendum.

How will their votes affect the result of the European elections and how should we take this into consideration in any comparison of the results of these elections to that of the Brexit referendum and use it to interpret the ‘will of the people’?

I think the answer may be something along the following lines:

We might reasonably assume that 5% of the votes cast will be cast by EU (non UK) citizens and that 100% of their votes will be for Remain.

So, on that basis, 5% of the votes for Remain MP's should be disregarded in any analysis which aims to use the Euro election results as an indirect index of UK citizens' opinion on Brexit.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3937

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:
May is refusing to resign and has again delayed her withdrawal bill. It will not now be presented before June, and no vote in the first week of June.

She simply refuses to give up.


Refusing to give up when you are mathematically defeated is a sign of mental illness. She's turning into Imelda Marcos.


Does she own that many shoes?
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3937

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 6:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Something that I have been reading about today:

Roughly 5% of the U.K. population are EU citizens but not U.K. citizens.

These people are eligible to vote in the European elections but were not eligible to vote in the Brexit referendum.

How will their votes affect the result of the European elections and how should we take this into consideration in any comparison of the results of these elections to that of the Brexit referendum and use it to interpret the ‘will of the people’?

I think the answer may be something along the following lines:

We might reasonably assume that 5% of the votes cast will be cast by EU (non UK) citizens and that 100% of their votes will be for Remain.

So, on that basis, 5% of the votes for Remain MP's should be disregarded in any analysis which aims to use the Euro election results as an indirect index of UK citizens' opinion on Brexit.


There is a lot of uncertainty. I have just been to vote, and up until 6 o’clock, the turn-out was abysmal. If all the non-UK citizens vote for the remain parties, (which is a complex problem as we have options for UK parties, but not for parties of other countries), and hardly any of the UK citizens bother to get off their backsides, it could skew the vote. It maybe that many non-UK citizens vote for leave parties, French, Spanish, Italian, Greece for example.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6762
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt it if they are over here.

That is to say, those people most likely to vote for Leave MEPs on the basis of being concerned with things like inwardly migrating labour with all of the consequences for stressed infrastructure and competition for jobs, will be those people who are least able to up sticks and work elsewhere. Conversely, those people who are able to up sticks and work elsewhere will be most likely to vote for Remain MEPs on the basis that this best serves their economic interests. On that basis, one might expect a very large proportion if not virtually all of the EU citizens working in the UK to vote for Remain MEPs.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3937

PostPosted: Thu May 23, 2019 8:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You might expect that from one point of view, but Italy as a whole would be pleased to see Brexit succeed as I understand it, they would also like to get out from under the thumb.
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