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Brexit process
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 2:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If there was a hard Brexit many European countries would be billions worse off without our payments in or Germany and the Netherlands would be worse off as the only two net payers left into the European pot. They don't want us to leave and would have us back but might try it on to get our rebate further reduced.

We would then have to watch as the Commission then instituted even tighter union and even tried to force us into the Euro. That way takes the UK into PIGS territory as our financial position is as bad as or even worse than some of those economically benighted countries. Only having our independent currency and the ability to print money saves us from their fate.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our financial position is not ideal, but it is not that bad although Brexit could completely mess it up.

Billions are a lot of money for an individual, but not so much for a country.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So you would be happy to see us forced into the Euro then John?
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
So you would be happy to see us forced into the Euro then John?

No and I don't see where you get that from.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

How could we be forced into the Euro? Seems highly unlikely to me.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've started subscribing to Eurointelligence (for free and it keeps coming after 3 days) and they say that Continental lawyers don't think you can revoke article 51 because it will act as a dangerous precedent.

Countries like Poland could activate Article 51 and change their mind during the course of the negotiations as a form of political blackmail on the rest of the EU to give in to their demands.

Summary, despite what the English lawyers thinks, it isn't on the cards. Once you activate Article 51 YOU ARE LEAVING.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
I've started subscribing to Eurointelligence (for free and it keeps coming after 3 days) and they say that Continental lawyers don't think you can revoke article 51 because it will act as a dangerous precedent.


That sounds more like a reason why the EU wouldn't want Article 50 to be revoked, than why it is actually illegal.

Quote:

Countries like Poland could activate Article 51 and change their mind during the course of the negotiations as a form of political blackmail on the rest of the EU to give in to their demands.


Maybe so. But the EU is currently engaged in political blackmail of the UK.

Quote:

Summary, despite what the English lawyers thinks, it isn't on the cards. Once you activate Article 51 YOU ARE LEAVING.

https://www.eurointelligence.com/


You are leaving because the EU wants you to leave?

This is not the way the legal system works (anywhere). You don't just interpret the law to mean whatever you happen to fancy it means.

Although in this instance it sounds like nobody actually knows what the legal situation is.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Tue Oct 17, 2017 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-brexit-resolution-article-50-can-be-revoked-2017-3

Quote:

EU leaked document: Britain can reverse Article 50

LONDON — The European Union's official response to Prime Minister Theresa May triggering Brexit states that Article 50 can be reversed, meaning Britain could, in theory, change its mind at some point in the two-year negotiation process.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 19, 2017 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/tories-deal-brexit-prepare-secret-11372932

Quote:

in response to a freedom of information request by the Mirror, her own department adm­itted plans for quitting the EU with No Deal were “well under way” three months ago.

Our probe shows other major Government departments were in the same boat.
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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Location: York

PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Saw an article in the FT today portraying Corbyn in a sympathetic light re. his meeting with EU counterparts.

The FT!!

Truly, we live in strange times.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 7:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think this brexit thing is a red herring. We have been saying for years the world and Euro economies are in sh1t street, and could tip at any moment, regardless of EU membership. Why is brexit now the reason it's happening? There are no sound reasons because economics is just a posers game, and not a science.
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
Why is brexit now the reason it's happening? There are no sound reasons because economics is just a posers game, and not a science.

Economics is difficult because part of it is perceptions. If people believe that something is likely to happen then they are likely to work to protect themselves from the consequences. Hence Markets tend to predict problems.

No deal, with the cessation of air flights to some countries and stopping JIT manufacturing would be a problem. Hence if it is a probability people will protect themselves by avoiding being in a difficult situation post Brexit. We will start seeing this more seriously after about March 2018.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
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Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:

No deal, with the cessation of air flights to some countries and stopping JIT manufacturing would be a problem.


I'M hearing this more and more lately. Last night on question time for example the labour MP for Wigan? said if a no deal Flights would be grounded.

Do politicians seriously think this will happen?

How would the game theory go?

EU stops flights to the UK, So EU planes are stuck on the ground. Within hours major UK and EU airlines are staring bankruptcies in the face. Would national carriers add hours to their flights by obviating UK airspace because they could not fly over it? So flights to the EU TO USA would take hours longer because of the detour?

I don't know but has anybody gamed this?
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
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Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:



Hence Markets tend to predict problems.



Laughing Laughing Laughing

Pull the other one. Problems like economic crashes?
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johnhemming2



Joined: 30 Jun 2015
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PostPosted: Fri Oct 20, 2017 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
How would the game theory go?

EU stops flights to the UK,

Most tickets are not bought on the day. You will find that travel companies are building into their contracts the ability to cancel tickets without notice or compensation in the event of no deal.

It is important to remember that the impact on the UK of no deal is much greater as a proportion of the economy than any EU country.
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