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Brexit process
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
...something akin to the status quo will be negotiated, largely preserving the current free trade movements with some token tariffs and continued membership dues for certain European agencies by Britain.

To a certain extent nothing much will change for the average Brit. Britain will still need EU migrants coming in but it will be under a controlled basis, like it was pre 2005 before free movement became the norm across the EU.

There may be some limited visa requirements for those wishing to travel to the EU but a minor inconvenience for most.


Yes I think this is perfectly likely. The various powers at play will do all they can to avoid anything 'dramatic' happening on their watch. The so called 'cliff edge' is not something any minister wants to work though. My feeling is that LB3's description above may persist semi-permanently and we'll forever be in a period of transition, with no one particularly happy about the situation.
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 9:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Although I'd rather stay in the EU, I see the most likely path to be a harder brexit (maybe an exit payment to cover our dues until next EU budget but no transition and no membership of SM/CU) as there seems to be little political will to fight for anything else.

Then a 2 or 3 years later they'll be a big fanfare about a trade deal with the USA but it'll take away far more rights than we ever got back from the EU.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Oct 07, 2017 10:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/07/theresa-may-secret-advice-brexit-eu

Quote:

Theresa May is under pressure to publish secret legal advice that is believed to state that parliament could still stop Brexit before the end of March 2019 if MPs judge that a change of mind is in the national interest. The move comes as concern grows that exit talks with Brussels are heading for disaster.

The calls for the prime minister to reveal advice from the country’s top legal experts follow government statements declaring that Brexit is now unstoppable, and that MPs will have to choose between whatever deal is on offer next year – even if it is a bad one – or no deal at all.


Even as a Leave voter, it seems to me untenable that this advice be withheld from the public. There must be a legal opinion - either the UK can reverse Article 50, or it can't. Whether or not you actually want the process to continue or not, that legal advice remains the way it is. By refusing to allow the public to know what the legal situation actually is, it becomes obvious that the advice is indeed that article 50 can be withdrawn, and that the tory government is hiding this information. If the advice was otherwise - that article 50 is irreversible - then they'd have nothing to lose, and something to gain, by making it public.

So it must be the case that the Brexit process can be legally stopped, unilaterally, at any point. This is very important whichever side you are on. If you're a remainer it is obvious why it is important, but even if you are a leaver it matters, because I think the threat of the UK remaining in the EU would actually be a powerful bargaining chip to get the EU to give us a better deal to leave. The EU wants to go ahead with ever closer union. It does not want the the UK screwing everything up, and that is exactly what would happen if Article 50 was revoked without the EU offering us a new status within the EU.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

No

No "new arrangements". No "threats to stay". No more of any of this bullshit. The UK is leaving the EU. This, of logical necessity, means leaving the Single market and the Customs union. The EU can choose to cut an equitable trade deal on the back of those facts or it can choose to play silly buggers. In which case, the UK should walk away and fall back on WTO trade rules.

That's it.

This country voted out and if this or any government decides it is going to play fast and loose with what that means, they will reap a f***ing hurricane. The "legalities" are neither here nor there.

I may be mistaken here, but you're sounding like you might be a leaver with regrets UE. Well - if so - you are entitled to those regrets. But, you are not entitled to expect or endorse this or any other government refuting the democratic process by reversing wholly or partially the decision to leave, unequivocally and without qualification. Or, for that matter, even threatening to.

To be absolutely clear about this; the terms of continued membership - whole or partial - are not on the table and should not be on the table to be used as some kind of bargaining chip. This country is leaving the EU and if that does not now happen there will be bloodshed at some point over it.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
No


No public disclosure of the legal advice??

Quote:

The "legalities" are neither here nor there.


The legalities are very much here and now. The arguments depend on the legalities. Whatever happens, I don't believe that withholding knowledge of the legal situation from the public is a legitimate or wise way to proceed.

Quote:

I may be mistaken here, but you're sounding like you might be a leaver with regrets UE.


There's nothing to indicate that in what I posted. I still want the UK to leave the EU - if anything my problem is that I dislike the way the negotiations are proceeding and I think the UK should play hardball. That even includes threatening to "rejoin" the EU as Mr uber-awkward in order to try to win concessions from them.

Quote:

Well - if so - you are entitled to those regrets. But, you are not entitled to expect or endorse this or any other government refuting the democratic process by reversing wholly or partially the decision to leave, unequivocally and without qualification. Or, for that matter, even threatening to.


Even if that threat provides a mechanism for getting a better deal (one way or another) out of the EU??

Quote:

To be absolutely clear about this; the terms of continued membership - whole or partial - are not on the table and should not be on the table to be used as some kind of bargaining chip.


If they are legal options, then they are on the table whether you like it or not. This really isn't over until it is over. I think it is a sort of bargaining chip, in a rather unorthodox way. It is a way of calling the EU's bluff. They are proceeding on the assumption that it is politically impossible for the UK to revoke Article 50, but I personally suspect if Juncker, Barnier and their cronies suspected a revocation of article 50 was a realistic possibility, they might just become a little more flexible either on the terms under which we leave, or under which we stay.

I think maybe where I differ from you is that I have different red lines. I'm not 100% opposed to the UK remaining part of the EU provided the terms of membership were substantially altered in ways that the EU so far has point blank refused to consider. At the moment this is not really a "negotiation" at all - it is more like the EU making a list of demands that the UK has to sign up to, with no reciprocal flexibility. I think it is possible that the final outcome of this whole process could be a substantially reformed EU rather than a UK-less EU. And I don't think this would necessarily be a bad thing - I'd need to see the details of any new arrangement before I'd be able to pass judgement.

But we need to be able to threaten them with something they seriously don't like, and I think a revocation of article 50 would be just that.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 7:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are limits to what the political process can achieve. The Brexit proposals are now coming up against reality.
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
To be absolutely clear about this; the terms of continued membership - whole or partial - are not on the table and should not be on the table to be used as some kind of bargaining chip. This country is leaving the EU and if that does not now happen there will be bloodshed at some point over it.


You do realise that many people in this country (nearly half of whom voted!) wanted to stay? You realise many haven't changed their minds? You think this would have been over had leave lost? No decision is ever final in my experience.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

johnhemming2 wrote:
There are limits to what the political process can achieve. The Brexit proposals are now coming up against reality.


No. They are coming up against a bunch of arrogant w**kers at the EU, and we need to play hardball. We have not reached reality yet.

The UK is not powerless. We don't have zero cards to play. But we have to be prepared to both leave without a deal, and make life as miserable as possible for the EU if that happens. That requires courage. It is not a risk-free strategy. But the alternative is to lower our trousers and take our punishment like bad little schoolboys being punished by the headmaster.
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johnhemming2



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PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
The UK is not powerless. We don't have zero cards to play.

True, but it is not a war. It is a negotiation and not a fight.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh! It's a fight alright. It's a fight for the future, or not, of the EU. If Britain gets a good deal on leaving there will be many EU countries who will want a similar deal and it would break the EU as it now is. We will only get a punitive deal or none at all.

I suspect that if we asked to revoke the Article 50 declaration there would be costs to us in that as well. The EU don't like our rebate for a start and I think we might find that we will lose that. We might also be forced into the Schengen zone which would mean that the camps in the mainland channel ports would become camps in the UK instead.

I think that we will end up with a choice between leaving with no deal, which I am happy with, or staying in and losing all our present "benefits". Putting that to a vote would get a very different vote to going back in on current terms.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:

I suspect that if we asked to revoke the Article 50 declaration there would be costs to us in that as well.


That's why the legal advice matters. I strongly suspect we don't have to "ask" to revoke Article 50. We can simply unilaterally revoke it, and there's nothing the EU can do, legally, to prevent that from happening.

Quote:

The EU don't like our rebate for a start and I think we might find that we will lose that. We might also be forced into the Schengen zone which would mean that the camps in the mainland channel ports would become camps in the UK instead.


Again, this is why it is important to know what the legalities actually are. Can the EU legally do this?
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has got nothing to do with "legalities" and never has, fundamentally. The "legalities" are and always have been window dressing on the politics and, when push comes to shove, the politics will decide the outcome.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The EU may not like the rebate but not having it may actually help get more EU funding into the UK.

As I understand it, any EU grant etc going to the UK to set off against the rebate, hence the UK government not being keen for these to be applied for as essentially they're paying for it and we know our government of any colour hates spending money on people who actually need it rather their pet projects.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
This has got nothing to do with "legalities" and never has, fundamentally. The "legalities" are and always have been window dressing on the politics and, when push comes to shove, the politics will decide the outcome.


With respect, you don't seem to be taking any notice of what I am actually saying.

What I said is that if there is legal advice available to the government about whether or not Article 50 can be revoked, or not, then this advice should be known by the public. I can't think of any justification - certainly not any justification I'd expect you to accept - for keeping this information private. The very fact that it has not been made public makes it looks like the government is scared of the consequences of making it public. Possibly you are worried about this also?

Of course politics will decide the outcome, but not to the extent that politics can decide an outcome which is illegal. The range of outcomes that politics decides between is itself determined by what is legally possible. No politics can revoke article 50 if article 50 cannot legally be revoked.

I think this matters. I believe we are likely to end up with a choice between leaving with no deal, leaving with a terrible/punitive deal, or threatening to revoke article 50, or actually revoking article 50. And I would like to know whether or not the last two of those options are really options, regardless of the fact that some people, yourself included, find them politically unacceptable.

I truly believe that if the UK took the line "This is not a serious negotiation - it is a punitive negotiation, just demonstrating the arrogance of the EU - and therefore the UK has decided to keep open the option of unilaterally revoking Article 50 and remaining a full member of the EU, WITH A VETO over future EU business...." then might just have a near-miraculous effect on the arrogant bastards. The ability to revoke Article 50 is quite powerful, and right now the UK is short of powerful cards to play. We have the power to totally f*ck up the EU, and I think Mr Barnier and Mr Juncker need to be reminded of this.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like a hard "no deal" Brexit is rising.

The British government must start preparing for a failure of a deal in 2019 because, oddly enough, only when we are serious about preparing for a no deal, will the EU member states led by Germany see sense and start behaving constructively.

My base forecast is that a deal will be done but if the Germans don't start showing some reasonableness soon, the chances of the talks collapsing are rising. Sadly Merkel never did understand British politics, otherwise she would have shown greater flexibility to Cameron on immigration which would have probably prevented the Leave victory in the first place!
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