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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
leave CFP?


The withdrawal agreement as it currently stands does involve the UK leaving the CFP, but the Spanish and French are apparently objecting to this. It looks like they are going to demand that the UK grants continued EU access to UK fisheries as part of the "temporary" CU and backstop. The 13 scottish tory MPs are vowing to vote against it if TM capitulates on this.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excellent news.

I could rely on the frogs!

Latest is that the French are insisting the poltical declaration is changed to include wording that status quo in fisheries remains after Brexit.

Basically May will have to agree wording that betrays UK fishermen.

That is politically explosive and could turn public opinion against the deal and if needs be to a no deal brexit.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Excellent news.

I could rely on the frogs!

Latest is that the French are insisting the poltical declaration is changed to include wording that status quo in fisheries remains after Brexit.

Basically May will have to agree wording that betrays UK fishermen.

That is politically explosive and could turn public opinion against the deal and if needs be to a no deal brexit.


If there was still any flicker of hope of this deal getting through the commons, that change will extinguish it entirely. But I am not convinced this necessarily leads us to a no deal brexit. There is still a distinct possibility of a second referendum, or a general election, or both, either of which could lead us to cancelling brexit.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a second referendum is very unlikely. I don't think it would work.

Surely the more serious end of the Leave cohort would promote a boycott. If a boycott, which would be easy to argue for, took hold with a couple million peopling boycotting it, even a large remain majority would have no moral legitimacy. Who could say whether 1 million, 2 or 5 million had boycotted?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The political class are getting desperate now and, I think, will try anything, even if, under normal circumstances, they would never dare try something with so little political legitimacy.

This has the capacity to start to turn really ugly.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Eurointelligence explains better then me why no-Brexit remains very unlikely.

A ge is a more likely prospect however although a no-deal Brexit is still a very plausible outcome.

I spoke to a neighbor today, a "man of the street" type who was down the middle on the Brexit referendum. He wasn't aware of the details of the deal and didn't seem too fussed but after I explained it got a bit riled up about it - basically said it was shit.

However, when I told him about fisheries, his response was "f*** of". That summed it up.

Fish is the key issue and it is emotive in a way that these technocrats fail to get. It's key to turning the public against the deal.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/11/16/7-more-things-weve-learned-about-public-opinion-br

Quote:
Given the choice between accepting the deal and leaving the EU without any formal agreement, 60% of people would take the deal, while 40% would prefer to leave without it. Leave voters lean the opposite way, with two thirds (64%) preferring a no-deal Brexit and only 36% wanting to leave under the terms that May has negotiated.


That 60% needs to go below 50% for us no-dealers to win this battle in the coming months.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The deal is so unutterably shite that the only way the political class get it through is if they do so quickly. With each week that passes, the awfulness of the deal will dawn, more and more on the public.

I am beginning to suspect that this "deal" has been sized upon by the political class as an opportunity to actually tie the UK ever more undemocratically into the EU's embrace than it was even before.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
I think a second referendum is very unlikely. I don't think it would work.

Surely the more serious end of the Leave cohort would promote a boycott. If a boycott, which would be easy to argue for, took hold with a couple million peopling boycotting it, even a large remain majority would have no moral legitimacy. Who could say whether 1 million, 2 or 5 million had boycotted?


The widespread rejection of the deal on both sides make the referendum more workable. It would have to be 3 part:

(1) Do you accept May's deal, yes or no? (and surely the result will be a resounding no)

(2) If no, then remain as full member or leave with no deal?

(3) (NI only). If we leave with no deal, should NI remain in the union even if this requires the construction of border infrastructure with RoI?

There's no reason to boycott this. It's surely fair, so long as you accept that May's deal is the best, or pretty close to the best, the UK is likely to be able to negotiate. Having eliminated the soft, hokey-cokey, bacon trifle brexit deal, the only options available are in or out, with everybody knowing what both options actually mean. This would also require the EU to declare the conditions of remaining, including (crucially) the future status of the UK's rebate.

A remain victory would not put this to bed of course. It would cause incalculable damage to the tory party, turn UKIP into a major force in British politics going forwards, and have major implications for internal EU politics, of which we would still be part. But it absolutely could happen.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe add (4) (Scotland only). If we leave with no deal, should Scotland leave the union even if this requires the construction of border infrastructure with RoUK? Razz
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Maybe add (4) (Scotland only). If we leave with no deal, should Scotland leave the union even if this requires the construction of border infrastructure with RoUK? Razz


No chance. Don't buy the SNP bullshit. NI is being treated as a special case because it has a land border with the EU and there are unique treaties already in force regarding that border. This situation is complex enough already without making it far more complicated for no good reason by bringing Scottish independence into the equation.

Also, your option 4 involves an assumption that the EU would allow Scotland to join by fiat instead of going through the application process. This will not happen.


Last edited by UndercoverElephant on Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:13 pm; edited 1 time in total
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Eurointelligence explains better then me why no-Brexit remains very unlikely.

A ge is a more likely prospect however although a no-deal Brexit is still a very plausible outcome.

I spoke to a neighbor today, a "man of the street" type who was down the middle on the Brexit referendum. He wasn't aware of the details of the deal and didn't seem too fussed but after I explained it got a bit riled up about it - basically said it was shit.

However, when I told him about fisheries, his response was "f*** of". That summed it up.

Fish is the key issue and it is emotive in a way that these technocrats fail to get. It's key to turning the public against the deal.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2018/11/16/7-more-things-weve-learned-about-public-opinion-br

Quote:
Given the choice between accepting the deal and leaving the EU without any formal agreement, 60% of people would take the deal, while 40% would prefer to leave without it. Leave voters lean the opposite way, with two thirds (64%) preferring a no-deal Brexit and only 36% wanting to leave under the terms that May has negotiated.


That 60% needs to go below 50% for us no-dealers to win this battle in the coming months.


If you're a russian living in guernsey, I wouldn't rely on your neighbours to be representative of the UK majority.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:
Maybe add (4) (Scotland only). If we leave with no deal, should Scotland leave the union even if this requires the construction of border infrastructure with RoUK? Razz


No chance. Don't buy the SNP bullshit. NI is being treated as a special case because it has a land border with the EU and there are unique treaties already in force regarding that border. This situation is complex enough already without making it far more complicated for no good reason by bringing Scottish independence into the equation.

Also, your option 4 involves an assumption that the EU would allow Scotland to join by fiat instead of going through the application process. This will not happen.

Agreed, I was being facetious.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ha ha! I'm certainly not Russian and would never live in ghastly Guernsey!! Donkey land!!!

Thanks for that - I needed a laugh! Smile
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:
I think a second referendum is very unlikely. I don't think it would work.

Surely the more serious end of the Leave cohort would promote a boycott. If a boycott, which would be easy to argue for, took hold with a couple million peopling boycotting it, even a large remain majority would have no moral legitimacy. Who could say whether 1 million, 2 or 5 million had boycotted?


The widespread rejection of the deal on both sides make the referendum more workable. It would have to be 3 part:

(1) Do you accept May's deal, yes or no? (and surely the result will be a resounding no)

(2) If no, then remain as full member or leave with no deal?

(3) (NI only). If we leave with no deal, should NI remain in the union even if this requires the construction of border infrastructure with RoI?

There's no reason to boycott this. It's surely fair, so long as you accept that May's deal is the best, or pretty close to the best, the UK is likely to be able to negotiate. Having eliminated the soft, hokey-cokey, bacon trifle brexit deal, the only options available are in or out, with everybody knowing what both options actually mean. This would also require the EU to declare the conditions of remaining, including (crucially) the future status of the UK's rebate.

A remain victory would not put this to bed of course. It would cause incalculable damage to the tory party, turn UKIP into a major force in British politics going forwards, and have major implications for internal EU politics, of which we would still be part. But it absolutely could happen.
It is not for the whole of the UK to decide on the future of Northern Ireland. It is for the Northern Irish alone to make that decision in a Northern Irish referendum. (edit to add) ah...I see you have reserved that question just for the Northern Irish. Okay.

We just need to do what should have been done at the start - which is to offer a reasonable, Canadian style free trade deal or, in the absence of the EU playing ball, leave on WTO rules. At that point, or at any point in the future, the Northern Irish could decide whether or not they wished to secede.

The reason we are where we are has got F--k all to do with Northern Ireland and everything to do with the EU wishing to make any deal awful in order to frighten any other country thinking of leaving and a traitorous UK political class who do not want to leave the EU.

Everything else is bullshit
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/11/16/mays-brexit-deal-falls-life-really-like-no-deal-world/

Peter Foster is no brexiteer and his conclusion is that a managed no deal is perfectly achievable.

Quotes a senior EU diplomat from major trading nation thst no deal would be a wet fart not a calamity.
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