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Brexit process
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4290
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John - agree with you, the extension of the transition doesn't change anything. Disagree with Eurointelligence on that one.

Basically there are 3 options left:

1) Britain accepts backstop and approves deal

2) EU drops backstop insistance, paving the way for a deal

3) Neither side moves from their red lines and its a no-deal Brexit

Not sure there is much to add now. EU are assuming May will blink and May appears to assume the EU will soften their position at the 11th hour.

That was why, instead of discussing Brexit, Macron and Merkel got pissed in central Brussels.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
Posts: 4290
Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Eurointelligence latest briefing...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

Quote:
Disorder, disorder....
We had originally planned to spare you the details of arcane UK parliamentary procedures for the ratification of a Brexit withdrawal deal, because we believe that those procedures will never be triggered. We still think that. But, as we follow the UK debate, we realise that they might matter for a different reason. The rules might give MPs a mistaken incentive to reject a withdrawal deal.

The issue came to light in the context of a bullying scandal involving the speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. The formerly bewigged Speaker is not only the master of ceremonies but has the right to decide what parliamentary amendments are deemed admissible and which are not. After the rejection of the so-called meaningful vote amendment, the Speaker now has the right to decide whether the House could vote to take matters in its own hand if there is no deal by January. In extremis, this could involve the House calling on the government to ask for an extension of the Article 50 deadline to allow for a second referendum.

In the more likely event of a deal, the issue involving parliamentary procedures is going to be a different one. It is about whether, when, and to which extent parliament has the right to pass amendments to the withdrawal treaty. Dominic Raab, Brexit secretary, yesterday sent a letter to MPs outlining the government’s preference for a more streamlined ratification process. But in the end, it is Mr Speaker who will be in charge. Never underestimate the tendency of imperial overreach in the House of Commons.

There are amendments that could invalidate the treaty, and whose passage would constitute outright non-ratification. This includes an amendment to subject passage to a future referendum, because this could only happen if the European Council were to agree to an extension of the Article 50 deadline. When Brits discuss the second referendum or alternative deals, they always tend to take the EU’s position for granted.

We doubt very much that the EU would be much impressed in an open-ended referendum process, especially one forced upon it by a reluctant UK government. The timetable of Article 50 and the unanimity requirement for an extension are the reasons why we think the UK parliament is ultimately facing a binary choice - between accepting a deal or a no-deal Brexit. The talk about parliamentary procedures serves mainly to prop up the egos of dejected MPs, but in reality constitute a diversion. Those who hyperventilate have either not read, or failed to comprehend, Article 50, or if they do, they misjudge the interests of the EU.

In this context, we noted a comment by Fabian Zuleeg. He writes the EU would of course welcome a decision by the UK to reverse Brexit. Whether this is legally possible is another, as yet untested issue. For the sake of argument let us assume that it is.

But this would have to be the result of a genuine change of heart - not an opinion poll. He said it is unlikely this will happen inside the remaining time. He writes that from the perspective of the EU27, the option of a Brexit reversal has disappeared from the radar screen.

The speaker of the House may get away bullying his staff, but he has no means at his disposal to bully the EU.

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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Mark wrote:
I now believe that it would have a massive adverse impact on UK Manufacturing.


Thanks for the very clear opinion.

Just for the avoidance of doubt. You also believe that Brexit will never be advantageous for manufacturing. Brexit can only be bad for manufacturing?


Firstly, there's a big difference between 'Deal' Brexit and 'No Deal' Brexit and we still don't know which one we're getting.....
My opinions/comments have all referred to a 'No Deal' Brexit.

Off the top of my head:
Chemicals - already discussed above - I think that REACh will be a far bigger issue/problem than you seem to
Pharmaceuticals - they'll struggle with even worse legislative disruption
Automotive - their supply chains are totally interwoven with the EU. Just-In-Time would soon become Just-Too-Late. Several Car Plants are already a cloud (eg Ellesmere Port)
Aerospace - again, totally interwoven with the EU - Airbus, Eurofighter etc.
Also, many US, Japanese, Chinese companies have manufacturing bases here to allow them access to the EU - some would look to relocate, future investment would go elsewhere....

Obviously, it wouldn't all be bad - I'm sure there would be winners too, but I'm struggling to see who they would be at the moment....
Any suggestions ?
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Potemkin Villager



Joined: 14 Mar 2006
Posts: 1036
Location: Narnia

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes I often wonder who it is exactly would benefit from no deal and why exactly it is energetically promoted as being better than a "bad" deal.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 135
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

Obviously, it wouldn't all be bad - I'm sure there would be winners too, but I'm struggling to see who they would be at the moment....
Any suggestions ?


Mark, I don't think anything I write could change your mind. Doomer V optimist writ large.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
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Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
Mark wrote:

Obviously, it wouldn't all be bad - I'm sure there would be winners too, but I'm struggling to see who they would be at the moment....
Any suggestions ?


Mark, I don't think anything I write could change your mind. Doomer V optimist writ large.


Those are very easy pigeon holes.
I'm happy to read any opinion/evidence to the contrary with an open mind.
Can you point us to any potential upside for manufacturing ?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6123
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can you point to any significant issues with manufacturing competitiveness post Brexit that were not also true pre-Brexit? Oh, and by the way, deliberate acts of political aggression by the EU to punish the UK for leaving so as to set an example to other in the EU who may be considering leaving do not count since, by definition, any organisation that was willing to act like that would not be one we should be a member of anyway.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Fri Oct 19, 2018 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Can you point to any significant issues with manufacturing competitiveness post Brexit that were not also true pre-Brexit?


Did you read my post at 9:35 ?
Or just totally ignore, as it didn't fit in with your narrative / world view ?
Another point is that UK products would be more expensive in the EU when we're on WTO Rules...

I've asked stumuz1 to evidence why he thinks I'm mistaken.
Similarly, if you've got any (constructive) comments/evidence on why UK manufacturing would be better off (or at least status quo) with a No Deal Brexit ?
The only possible advantage I can see is that the £ would probably lose a lot of value.

Everything read with an open mind Smile
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UK firms 'near point of no return':
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45931537

To quote Bill Clinton..... 'It's the Economy, stupid'.....
I know that we need to re-engineer the economy for a new post peak world, but Brexit is doing none of that - we're just going to shoot ourselves in the foot....
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are getting boring now Mark.

On a happier note. Looks like May will be pushed this week, I reckon.
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
You are getting boring now Mark.


I have been boring for a very long time.... Smile

But the subject is quite important, no ?
Regaining sovereignty is all well and good - if it can be achieved, that is....

But one of the prices to be paid seems to be a very large economic hit.
I've asked you, and stumuz1, and anyone else reading....., where is the economic benefit from a No Deal Brexit....??
I'm happy to learn, but nobody has (can) point to anything at all....., just some vague notion of a Trade Deal with the US (really ?)
All I can think of is a possible upturn in the fishing industry, if we regain total control of our fishing grounds...
Anything else......??
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Mark



Joined: 13 Dec 2007
Posts: 964
Location: NW England

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
On a happier note. Looks like May will be pushed this week, I reckon.


And that would help because...... we really need some more political chaos and a Leadership Election for the Tories..... ??
May only got elected in the first place because she was basically a compromise candidate between the 2 factions....
So, who would you prefer....., David Davis ? Boris ? Rees-Mogg ? Gove ?
But it's equally likely that somebody from the other faction could win...?
Tory Leadership Elections seldom go the way people think....
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 135
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mark wrote:

But one of the prices to be paid seems to be a very large economic hit.
I've asked you, and stumuz1, and anyone else reading....., where is the economic benefit from a No Deal Brexit....?? Anything else......??


It depends on what you call economic hit. If you mean total GDP then the answer is probably neutral.

If you mean the economic situation of the unskilled UK worker then a massive increase in their economic fortunes will be had. If we do Brexit correctly. Their ability to provide basic goods has been seriously diminished by EU free movement.

If you mean the economic ability of smaller companies to out compete the tax dodging capabilities of Irish registered multi- nationals companies, then again Brexit will be a bonus.

Remember, huge corporations benefit massively from EU bureaucracy. Zombie companies being kept afloat by quantitive easing. The little guy doesn't get a look in.

If you mean the economic subsidising of the banking and finance industry (bailouts) then again making the city a bit more agile is no bad thing.

If you want a concrete example of a company gaining a competitive edge by leaving the EU i will give you one.

A company I'm dealing with makes an industrial fluid ( sorry can't tell you which one I have signed a ruinous NDA!)

There is a EU regulation coming down the pipeline which is going to ban it because of deleterious health effects. Apparently it is drunk in Eastern EU countries because it is cheap.

We don't have the any issues in the UK with it. So hopefully the production line that is presently making it will carry on. For it is not banned in the rest of the world.

The company is also developing a similar product for the EU market. So post Brexit a product that is made in the UK will carry on being made in the UK.

Remember, value added manufacturing in the UK only accounts for about 9% of GDP.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another thing.

Google % of UK manufacturing between 1972 and today.

The EU has been devastating for UK manufacturing
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 10519
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No one on the Remain side ever talks about "the ever closer union" which the EU bureaucracy and MEPs are for ever talking about. This will mean the UK being forced into the Euro at some time iin the future which would be ruinous for the UK.

No one seems to know that another economic crash is on the way and if we are still in the EU we will be called upon to bail out the EU and its banks. Italy is on the brink and the rest of the Med countries aren't far off and bailing out Italy will be a whole lot different, in a very bad way, to bailing out Greece. Those costs to us will far outweigh anything that Brexit will throw at us.
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