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Is the world entering a mini Ice Age?
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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Location: Moscow Russia

PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:24 pm    Post subject: Is the world entering a mini Ice Age? Reply with quote

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/12/winter-is-coming-warns-the-solar-physicist-the-alarmists-tried-to-silence/

Quote:
Make the most of this summer because it could be your last decent one: winter is coming as the planet enters the most devastating cooling period since the 65-year Maunder Minimum of the 17th and early 18th centuries.
This is the dire forecast of Professor Valentina Zharkova, a solar physicist at Northumbria University, who has based her prediction on sun spot activity known to be a significant driver of global climate which is currently very low and likely to get even lower during the next three solar cycles.

She has spoken about her research and her battle to get it taken seriously by the climate establishment in an interview with the Global Warming Policy Forum. You can see it in this short film.

According to Professor Zharkova:

We will see it from 2020 to 2053, when the three next cycles will be very reduced magnetic field of the sun. Basically what happens is these two waves, they separate into the opposite hemispheres and they will not be interacting with each other, which means that resulting magnetic field will drop dramatically nearly to zero. And this will be a similar conditions like in Maunder Minimum.

What will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response they are based on this period when the sun has maximum activity when the sun has these nice fluctuations, and its magnetic field [is] very strong. But were approaching to the stage when the magnetic field of the sun is going to be very, very small.

The Maunder Minimum occurred during the depths of the Little Ice Age, a period of feeble summers and bitingly cold winters, war, pestilence and famine. It wasnt all bad: rivers like the Thames in London froze so thickly they could accommodate Ice Fairs; and its said that the slow tree growth induced by the cold gave the wood in Stradivarius violins their special timbre. On the whole, though, a descent into a new mini Ice Age would be massively debilitating both to the global economy and peoples living standards. Since the Little Ice Age ended in the middle of the Nineteenth century, we have all got used to the comforts and agricultural advantages (such as being able to grow wheat in more northerly latitudes) of living through a period of global warming. A second Little Ice Age will come as a very nasty shock.


What do you guys think? Is there a real chance that we are entering a mini Ice Age?

Genuinely interested in what the collective thoughts of the forum are on this as it will have profound implications if true.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I consider it to be most unlikely, temperatures are generally rising, polar ice and glaciers are generally melting, and sea temperatures are rising.

There is IMHO too much inertia involved to expect any near term reversal of the current warming trend.

The odd unusually cold winter is a distinct possibility and one should be prepared for such, but the odd severe winter does not make a mini ice age.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.thegwpf.com/new-solar-research-raises-climate-questions-triggers-attacks/

Here is the direct link.
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PS_RalphW



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 12, 2016 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Global temperatures have been at record levels for the last 8 months month on month, smashing previous records, aided by a strong el nino. This has crushed the denialist meme that global temperatures have been flat for the previous decade.

There is no ice age on the way. Everything points to accelerated warming as CO2 and methane positive feedbacks kick in.

There is a strong summer cyclone brewing in the arctic ocean, it will probably do serious damage to the thin and fragmented remaining sea ice, and we may yet catch up with the record 2012 year, when another powerful cyclone struck in this week.
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snow hope



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have been aware of these predictions for some years as a Russian scientist, Landscheidt, discovered the longer span (reducing ) solar cycles a couple of decades back.

For anybody who isn't completely bought in to the global warming meme, I suggest you have a read of some of his research, http://bourabai.kz/landscheidt/new-e.htm

If the sun's output drops, then temperatures on earth will drop. A mini ice age is a very different thing from a full ice age as I am sure most people know. Rolling Eyes
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is not impossible that she's correct, but the wording of the article sets off an alarm bell that the author is not impartial:

Quote:

What will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response they are based on this period when the sun has maximum activity when the sun has these nice fluctuations, and its magnetic field [is] very strong. But were approaching to the stage when the magnetic field of the sun is going to be very, very small.

She suggests it could be a repeat of the so-called Maunder Minimum a period in the 17th century with little solar activity that may have influenced a cooling on Earth.

Whatever we do to the planet, if everything is done only by the sun, then the temperature should drop similar like it was in the Maunder Minimum.


So..."what will happen to the Earth remains to be seen and predicted because nobody has developed any program or any models of terrestrial response."

but

"She suggests it could be...... "

So we can't predict the effect on the Earth because the science hasn't been done, but she "suggests" that it "could be"....

Pah. About as interesting as anything else that somebody suggests could mean X based on science that hasn't been done.
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snow hope



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You need to read the link I gave to understand it a bit more before you write it off UCE. Arrow
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I consider it likely that the observed warming effect to date may well have reached a tipping point already, and that any reasonably foreseeable reduction in solar radiation will only slow down the warming, not reverse it.

In particular the reduction in polar ice cover is already significant and is increasing solar gain by replacing white snow with relatively dark coloured sea. Similar arguments apply to the reduction in snow cover and the retreat of glaciers.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Never say never, but the evidence is flimsy at best. Anyone claiming to be objective must expect continued warming (with associated internal variability) for the foreseeable.
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Catweazle



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I suppose the worst-case scenario is that the Sun's output drops for a few decades, mankind takes it as a green-light to keep burning fossil fuels, and our great-grandchildren roast.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The temperature drop during the Maunder Minimum was thought to be just over a degree C. Since we have almost one degree C temperature rise we might see a slight drop in warming for the next thirty years but the drop in temperature will not take us back into Maunder Minimum/Ice Fair territory. At it's peak we might see the odd 1947 or 1963 winter. Yes, there might be a hiatus in warming for 10 or 15 years but it will come back with a vengeance after that time.

By the way I first introduced this topic in 2010 - third post down. I first came across it while researching an essay on Climate Change in 2006 so it is hardly new to science. It has been studiously ignored until now, though!!

It was interesting to read those posts and to see how the climate and sea level predictions are steadily getting worse as research continues.

When someone suggests a theory which might have a slight effect on Global Warming/Climate Change why are they jumped upon as if they were a heretic? The woman is only pointing to research that says that there might be a temporary slowdown, research which has been known of for many years!
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Last edited by kenneal - lagger on Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 3:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Is the world entering a mini Ice Age? Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/12/winter-is-coming-warns-the-solar-physicist-the-alarmists-tried-to-silence/


The writers of this article are heading for a fall because they are ignoring the fact that the increase in world temperature since the Maunder Minimum almost cancels out the temperature decrease caused by the loss of solar input.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sat Aug 13, 2016 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

snow hope wrote:
You need to read the link I gave to understand it a bit more before you write it off UCE. Arrow


I read enough. When I see the remotest trace of a slowdown in the warming trend, then I might give it some serious thought. Until then it is uninteresting and irrelevant speculation.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 14, 2016 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Last year, this year and next year are complicated by the recent very strong El Nino event. We could well see a much cooler years in the next few years as the world recovers from the El Nino and as we did in '99 and onwards although even there there was still a warming trend after the once only drop.
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Pepperman



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PostPosted: Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

"by JAMES DELINGPOLE"

So i think that we can safely say that the answer is "no".

There was a decent piece in The Conversation from last year which sets out why:

https://theconversation.com/the-mini-ice-age-hoopla-is-a-giant-failure-of-science-communication-45037
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