PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

Europe in 20 years
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Living in the Future
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Enrique



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6

PostPosted: Tue Jul 19, 2005 11:59 pm    Post subject: Europe in 20 years Reply with quote

Hello, my name is Enrique, and I'm one of four executive directors of NET [Network of European Technocrats], and I found this forum very intriguing. You'll see, in the year of 2004, I wrote a project work about the future of the EU, where I outlined how the situation will look in 2025.

Even without the Peak Oil-depression, the EU would be unable to handle the upcoming age crisis, as well as the competition with China and India. The result, which we already could see today, would probably become the dismantling of the welfare system and the effectivisation of both the industrial sector and the service sector. In fact, we could see these processes working today.

If we put in Peak Oil in the equation, we could assume that even greater swathes of the population would be affected. If 30-45% of the population of the European Union is not only unemployed, but also excluded from taking part in a more and more disintegrated community, the result would be a rampant rise of two things, namely organised criminality, and ethnonationalism.

Basically, there would be three types of ethnic conflicts which would increase in numbers and intensity, namely.

1. Racism and xenophobia - Directed between "Neweuropeans", the second-generation immigrants in suburbs and city cores, and "Natives". Theoretically, cities like London, Stockholm and Berlin could very quickly be transformed into Sarajevos.

2. Regionalism - Quarrel between different European regions, between the countryside and urbanised regions in the coastlines and around traditional industries, created by inequality and conflicts about limited resources. Much likely that some regions could want to turn themselves into nation-states, like Catalonia, Scotland and Vlanderen.

3. Euro-resistance - Basically euro-scepticism upgraded into an armed version, where a more and more powerful but still impotent European Union is challenged by actual sabotage and paramilitary actions on behalf of small, decentralised groups.

If these three factors combine, the entire sphere of Europe could very quickly become turned into a greater version of Yugoslavia, and that is toward that direction that Europe is heading. I could predict that by year 2025, at least three to five countries in Europe would be underneath control of nationalists or fascists, and that ethnonationalism would be the dominating political ideology - the ideology which sets the agenda - during that period.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
MacG



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2863
Location: Scandinavia

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:01 am    Post subject: Re: Europe in 20 years Reply with quote

Enrique wrote:
If we put in Peak Oil in the equation, we could assume that even greater swathes of the population would be affected. If 30-45% of the population of the European Union is not only unemployed, but also excluded from taking part in a more and more disintegrated community, the result would be a rampant rise of two things, namely organised criminality, and ethnonationalism.


This is probably correct, but history indicate that other phenomena will show up also, with alternative currencies beeing the most interesting. Historically, such currencies have been stomped out by governments and central banks, but with the Internet around, it will not be that simple to do that today.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
isenhand



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 1296
Location: Sweden

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hmm ? so by that would it be fair and reasonable to conclude that governments would be a hindrance to any attempt to form self-sufficient communities?

Do you have any examples? I can think of attempt to prevent workers being paid in anything other than ?coins of the realm? in England but that was done for the benefit of the works.


Smile
_________________
The only future we have is the one we make!

Technocracy:
http://en.technocracynet.eu

http://www.lulu.com/technocracy

http://www.technocracy.tk/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
fishertrop



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 859
Location: Sheffield

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Firsly, I have a question - do you have to be a member of NET to post in this topic?

Laughing Laughing
Only joking !!

isenhand wrote:
Hmm ? so by that would it be fair and reasonable to conclude that governments would be a hindrance to any attempt to form self-sufficient communities?


I think this could happen, it depends on if these communities are seen as a barrier to a Gov agenda.

If such are making this difference between chaos/revolution and some kind of self-organised order then I think the Gov will either encourage them or at least allow them to continue.

Perhaps further down the line when choas has be averted and some kind of martial law has been imposed then such pockets of power, such self-contained entities (much as enrique suggests, but possibly more benign) could be seen as a threat to central gov control.

My take is that I NEED such a community and I will make it work in spite of gov intervention - this starts with keeping a low profile and not engaging in reprisals/revenge/raiding parties against local enemies etc.

Look at iraq today - all the power of the US and the iraq gov cannot really control even the more peaceful parts of the country, who run themselves pretty much as they please.

As for money - if you don't get paid for anything then you don't need to use "forbidden" currencies. Within a community you can get a LONG way with "favours" and barter.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MacG



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2863
Location: Scandinavia

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fishertrop wrote:
As for money - if you don't get paid for anything then you don't need to use "forbidden" currencies. Within a community you can get a LONG way with "favours" and barter.


That is the beauty with mutual credit - it is just a form of gift economy, with a ledger keeping track of the value of the gifts. Such things could also be banned, but it will be very difficult to enforce (look at file sharing over the net for a clue...)


Last edited by MacG on Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:16 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
MacG



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2863
Location: Scandinavia

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

isenhand wrote:
Do you have any examples? I can think of attempt to prevent workers being paid in anything other than ?coins of the realm? in England but that was done for the benefit of the works.


Except from the well known example of W?rgl there were more than 1600 local currencies in the US until all of them were banned in 1934. I'll dig out the reference from Bernard Lietaer's book later today.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
DamianB
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 553
Location: Dorset

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi Enrique

You make valid points and the senarios are likely to happen without publicity, education and debate. Peak oil is a phenomenon that needs to be discussed hand-in-hand with population reduction and reduced energy use and above all is about managing expectations for the future. The problem we have as activists is that these messages are not palatable or compatible in/with the current worldview of the future.
_________________
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
isenhand



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 1296
Location: Sweden

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

<< I think this could happen, it depends on if these communities are seen as a barrier to a Gov agenda.>>

I think this could be one of the major problems with such communities. But then, if the worse happens how powerful with the government be? Also, something like simpol could help with this as well.

<< My take is that I NEED such a community and I will make it work in spite of gov intervention - this starts with keeping a low profile and not engaging in reprisals/revenge/raiding parties against local enemies etc.>>

Yeap, and networks of such communities.

<< You make valid points and the senarios are likely to happen without publicity>>

Yes, education needs to be done as well and can be tied up with forming communities.

Smile
_________________
The only future we have is the one we make!

Technocracy:
http://en.technocracynet.eu

http://www.lulu.com/technocracy

http://www.technocracy.tk/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
Enrique



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you Damian, for your appreciation.

I have been engaged in technocracy since early 2004, and your statement bears the same sense as that of the North American technocrats. Unfortunately, I will have to disagree with both them and you on the point that only information and education will change the outcome of the situation.

For example, think of Italy in the 1920;s. The fascists did not have any programme or sustainable solution on the structural crisis of post-WWI Italy, but they managed to gain immense support from the broad impoverished masses [and I'm prepared to say from a large part of the intellectual establishment]. That support was no result from the fascist programme, since there were no fascist programme. Instead, the people followed the primal strength, which seemingly was able to provide basic security. During crises, the people are prepared to follow the one with strength, not their own inherent wisdom.

In fact, the Italian example was chosen because of it's pureness. Fascism is essentially only a shell with no depth, but this has been repeated over and over again. The Taleban in Afghanistan had an immense popular support, and is still the most popular paramilitary force in that country.

Therefore, when it comes to NET, I feel that our time is limited, and that there are certain feats that needs to be accomplished before we could make the transition towards technocracy. Firstly, we need to make our energy survey, in order to see if technocracy is possible to install in Europe.

Thereafter, I personally believe that NET would not only need to become an educational research network, but also a social movement, which engages alternative communities with modern technology, thus improving their efficiency and sustainability. In the same time, the members of these sustainable communities would be able to receive basic training in the technocratic theorem. But NET itself should not only work theoretically, but empirically as well. I have chosen to call that theory "organic empiricism". For example, NET could chose to serve the Camphill communities in Britain.

This is not an official policy, and could not be before we have finished our energy survey [in 2010 most likely].

We have a new community at spazz.mine.nu - http://spazz.mine.nu/forum3/index.php

And of course the classical www.technocracy.ca community portal.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
isenhand



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 1296
Location: Sweden

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

<<I feel that our time is limited>>

And many mountains to cross Sad. I would agree, but I think education should not be abandoned. People who are not part of a self-sufficient community should not be abandoned! Educating people is one way to prepare them for what might come and could form part of the network so they are in a position to move to or form a self-sufficient as and when needed.

Smile
_________________
The only future we have is the one we make!

Technocracy:
http://en.technocracynet.eu

http://www.lulu.com/technocracy

http://www.technocracy.tk/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
DamianB
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 553
Location: Dorset

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Enrique wrote:
For example, think of Italy in the 1920;s. The fascists did not have any programme or sustainable solution on the structural crisis of post-WWI Italy, but they managed to gain immense support from the broad impoverished masses [and I'm prepared to say from a large part of the intellectual establishment]. That support was no result from the fascist programme, since there were no fascist programme. Instead, the people followed the primal strength, which seemingly was able to provide basic security. During crises, the people are prepared to follow the one with strength, not their own inherent wisdom.


Surely there is a difference: the PO situation has not yet brought about a crisis and in this atmosphere we can affect the outcome [This is why I am an activist on this issue]. I don't know much about Italy post WWI but I would guess that the social conditions lent themselves to the extremists' agenda. If managing expectations for lower energy use is going to happen, we need this to occur now in relative social calm. People get agressive and violent when change happens a) quickly and b) without their consent.
_________________
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Enrique



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, but then there is the risk that the majority would receive us as "doomsday prophets", so the best thing is actually - in my opinion - to create a network of self-sustaining communities across the entire continent, with the capacity to take care of at least 10 million people in the year 2020.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
DamianB
Site Admin


Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 553
Location: Dorset

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Creating a network of sustainable communities will get us labelled as doomsday prophets anyway. We need education too and explaining why these commnuities are necessary should be part of the program.
_________________
"If the complexity of our economies is impossible to sustain [with likely future oil supply], our best hope is to start to dismantle them before they collapse." George Monbiot
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Enrique



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 6

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did not denounce education, it is especially important for NET to get able to educate as much people as possibly, but I believe that it is only possible if we starts to encounter organisations instead of individuals, as it will increase our efficiency and help us build a network that will uphold itself. I'm sorry if I expressed myself clumsily. Education is vital, but it is not alpha and omega.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Visit poster's website
RogerCO



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 672
Location: Cornwall, UK

PostPosted: Wed Jul 20, 2005 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry to butt in with a bit of ignorance - but what is NET? - perhaps it might be useful to post a separate topic with a five line what's it about.
Some of the posts in this thread don't make a lot of sense to me without, but Enrique's original post about future of the EU was interesting.
I see the word Technocracy being used - is that anything like the notion of 'Netocracy' which seems to postulate the emergence of a new 2-class social system of savvy Net/Tech-nocrats as an elite and the rest working more or less as their ignorant serfs/slaves?
Pardon my ignorance but I seem to be suffering from some deferred knowledge acquisition success here Smile
_________________
RogerCO
___________________________________
The time for politics is past - now is the time for action.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Living in the Future All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group