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KSA Watch
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1841

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Houthi rebels claim to have "captured thousands of Saudi troops, and killed many others"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49866677

If true, that sounds like a significant setback for KSA and increases the risk of a wider war.


Quote:
Something curious is happening in Saudi Arabia and Yemen.


Houthi media are reporting 500 Saudi forces killed, 2,400 captured.
That is not the only significant development.

King Salman's bodyguard has been killed.

Currently, there is a fire at Jeddah railway station

Source

Has MBS launched a pre-emptive coup?
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 513
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Houthi rebels claim to have "captured thousands of Saudi troops, and killed many others"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49866677


The reference provided specifically says that the claim cannot be proven. No video, dates not provided, etc etc.

So maybe, maybe not. I imagine those of a conspiratorial bent will have a good time with it though.

adam2 wrote:

If true, that sounds like a significant setback for KSA and increases the risk of a wider war.


An important conditional. And WAR increases the risk of wider war, detail is interesting or amusing sometimes, but the real issue is once you begin one, who knows where it ends up.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

later reports cast doubts as to the veracity of the Houthi claims, suggesting that the numbers reported as being captured or killed have been exaggerated.

Despite this it seems that something out of the ordinary is underway.
It seems beyond doubt that SOME KSA troops have been killed and others captured, even if the initial reports over reported the numbers.

It is beyond reasonable doubt that a Royal body guard IS dead of gunshot wounds.

Pictures clearly show a major fire at or near a main railway station in SA.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49866677
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


The reference provided specifically says that the claim cannot be proven. No video, dates not provided, etc etc.



Nope - there are links on the Moon of Alabama blog that were released by Houthi media.

What they do confirm is that KSA forces did lose men and equipment but they are NOT independent verification of the actual casualty list.

What should also be noted is that there are a large number of mercenary forces that serve in KSA armed forces - the army appears to have large contingents from either Sudan or Somalia. It is amongst these that bore the brunt of the fighting, in all probability.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Sep 29, 2019 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
later reports cast doubts as to the veracity of the Houthi claims, suggesting that the numbers reported as being captured or killed have been exaggerated.


Say it ain't so!! Sort of like Baghdad Bob, except less well dressed?

adam2 wrote:

Despite this it seems that something out of the ordinary is underway.
It seems beyond doubt that SOME KSA troops have been killed and others captured, even if the initial reports over reported the numbers.


War is happening, and war is generally out of the ordinary indeed. Once a war is going, anything is possible, legal and not a surprise. Hence the enthusiasm demonstrated by some towards it as a fundamentally defining human behavior. I am referring to Patton of course.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oil is trading a little below Fridays closing price suggesting a lack of concern about or interest in events in KSA.

The crown prince has made a statement forecasting a vast increase in the oil price unless the international community do something about Iran.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49874807

A cynic might suspect that what he really means is "send me military assistance to keep me in power, because the other lot will be worse"
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 30, 2019 3:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Oil is trading a little below Fridays closing price suggesting a lack of concern about or interest in events in KSA.


Or a better understanding of them.

adam2 wrote:


The crown prince has made a statement forecasting a vast increase in the oil price unless the international community do something about Iran.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-49874807

A cynic might suspect that what he really means is "send me military assistance to keep me in power, because the other lot will be worse"


A realist might suspect that because US rig counts are dropping, and realizing that it foretells a future decrease in oil production from the world's largest producer at an inconvenient time, it has nothing to do with cynic's misunderstanding of current market conditions. Brought to you by the WSJ no less
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2019 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting read from Federico Pieraccini at Strategic Culture: Three Saudi Brigades annihilated in devastating Houthi offensive in Saudi Arabia

What is interesting is that of the electronic warfare measures the Houthis used to deter the Saudis from using its overwhelming airpower to the theatre in any meaningful way. Particularly as the battle itself lasted for 3 days.
Quote:
Houthi forces employed drones, missiles, anti-aircraft systems, as well as electronic warfare to prevent the Saudis from supporting their troops with aviation or other means to assist their trapped men. Testimony from Saudi soldiers suggest that efforts to rescue them were half-hearted and of little effect. Saudi prisoners of war accuse their military leaders of having left them prey to their opponents.


The House of Saud was built on sand and it appears that sand is now shifting
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raspberry-blower



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PostPosted: Sat Dec 07, 2019 11:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The inevitable has happened - the Saudis are now suing for peace:

Moon of Alabama: Saudi Arabia retreats from the troubles its Clown Prince caused

The possibility of MbS being bypassed in the succession process has increased following some catastrophic blunders:

Quote:
Three of the clown prince's major projects have failed. On top of that comes the reputational damage that the murder, on MbS' order, of Jamal Khashoggi caused. That the Saudi king has now taken steps to limit the overall damage may have come through the influence of Muhammad bin Salman's younger brother, Khalid bin Salman. KbS had been the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Since February 2019 he is the Deputy Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia. He was involved in the talks with the Houthi. It is possible that the king will finally recognize that MbS is not good enough for his job and that Khalid may a better successor to the throne than his brother Mohammad.

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