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Russia Watch
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 136
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Please don't take this as a dig, but an understanding of what evidence is, is helpful when debating what the evidence points to.

To get a criminal conviction in a common law court the prosecution merely has to show that a state of affairs existed. i.e you were carrying a knife in public or you deliberatly played loud music to annoy your neighbour. It is up to you to prove your innocence. In evidence law its called a reverse burden.

In very serious cases i.e murder, it is up to the prosecution to prove guilt on a balance of 70% weighted. This is the point where the weight of evidence tips the scales in favour of a prosecution.

My old evidence lecturer used to explain in this way.

To get a conviction you need 500 grams of evidence.

If the offence was committed by a male and the accused is male =1g
If the offence was committed by a male aged 20-30 and the accused is male aged 20-30 =2g
If the offence was committed by a male with a particular knife and the accused has in his possession a particular knife =100g
If the offence was committed by a male at a certain time and date and the accused is male who is captured on cctv on a certain time and date =100g
If a male was seen running from the scene and the accused was seen running from the scene =50g
If traces of the victims blood was found in the accused room=200g
If the accused changes his story halfway through the trial =50g

In this scenario there are no 'facts' that directly show the accused commit a crime.

The accused will be convicted on weighted evidence, which will be deliberated then added up.

In the Salisbury case there is not just 500g but nearer 5000g of evidence.
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Automaton



Joined: 22 Jan 2016
Posts: 164

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:

In the Salisbury case there is not just 500g but nearer 5000g of evidence.


Quite a claim. I must be blind, as I don't see much evidence, if any. Evidence, as your little guide demonstrates nicely, does come from facts.
So let's see: The male suspects (not people who committed an offence) were recorded on cctv near the Skripal house on the day of the supposed poisoning. By your guide, that's 100g (maybe: I bet there were many people near the house at that time who could have been caught on cctv. But then maybe they weren't Russian, so don't count. On what grounds are these two men already suspects at that time?).
Is there more 'evidence' than that? Are you maybe counting the supposed tiny traces of 'Novichok' found in the hotel room they stayed in (months after they left)? That could have been due to any number of guests before or after their stay (though this is an extremely unlikely part of this whole story anyway), so it's hard to see how that could seriously be taken as 'evidence'. But hey, let's be generous to the UK government and give it another 100g, as if it was a knife in their possession.
What else is there that could possibly count as real evidence? I don't see anything.
So I get a total of (a very shaky) 200g. Where are you finding the other 4800 to make up your 5000g?
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 136
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 11:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You've got it.

Evidence is cumulative, it is totted up.

Now looking at the Salisbury case in the round, my word does the evidence of a serious crime being committed tot up.

However, what is a fact is very subjective. That is why we have juries. If you were on the jury the two 'tourists' would walk free.
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Automaton



Joined: 22 Jan 2016
Posts: 164

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stumuz1 wrote:
You've got it.

Evidence is cumulative, it is totted up.

Now looking at the Salisbury case in the round, my word does the evidence of a serious crime being committed tot up.

However, what is a fact is very subjective. That is why we have juries. If you were on the jury the two 'tourists' would walk free.


'A fact is subjective'? No, there are no 'alternative facts'. There may be subjective opinions about those facts (true or untrue), but that definitely does not make facts themselves subjective.

I'm asking you to show how the evidence tots up to the very damning extend that you've claimed, as I can't see anything to justify it. if I was on the jury, I'd be asking what the evidence is, and that's what I'm asking you for now. Whether the accused walk free or not would depend on that.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
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Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hearing about this case from abroad, so to speak, I'm still waiting for actual evidence to be presented.

The 'authorities' have said they have had 'evidence' all along but until they choose to share it...
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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Location: UK

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There isn't any evidence. If there was, it would have been plastered all over the media for months. Instead of what we have had, which is months of increasingly hysterical bullshit and innuendo designed to pull in as many idiots and/or people who have a psychological need to bow to an authority as possible.

Consequently, the extent to which individuals will readily swallow this bullshit is a good indirect index of those personality/intellectual traits. It's certainly turning out to be quite a good measure of them in posters on here.


Last edited by Little John on Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:49 pm; edited 3 times in total
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There isn't any evidence. If there was, it would have been plasted all over the media for months.


In the first few days/weeks of the fiasco, I repeatedly heard of the UK regime's claims of 'we have the evidence'. That's all I ever heard. I kept saying, yes, carry on...but there was never any follow-up. It's Trump-itis.
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stumuz1



Joined: 07 Jun 2016
Posts: 136
Location: Anglesey

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There isn't any evidence. If there was, it would have been plastered all over the media for months. Instead of what we have had, which is months of increasingly hysterical bullshit and innuendo designed to pull in as many idiots and/or people who have a psychological need to bow to an authority as possible.

Consequently, the extent to which individuals will readily swallow this bullshit is a good indirect index of those personality/intellectual traits. It's certainly turning out to be quite a good measure of them in posters on here.


Usual abuse.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6218
Location: UK

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Meanwhile, care to present some actual material evidence?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6218
Location: UK

PostPosted: Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No? Thought not.

Give your head a wobble.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 6817
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A Russian military aircraft has just been shot down in the Middle East, with the presumed loss of those on board.

Reports vary as to whom was responsible, some reports suggest Syrian forces shot the plane down.
Russia says that Israeli aircraft forced the Russian plane into an area where it was at risk from Syrian defences.

Details from news media of your choice.

EDIT TO ADD the Russian aircraft was a transport plane with 15 persons on board, it is feared that all on board perished.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
A Russian military aircraft has just been shot down in the Middle East, with the presumed loss of those on board.

Reports vary as to whom was responsible, some reports suggest Syrian forces shot the plane down.
Russia says that Israeli aircraft forced the Russian plane into an area where it was at risk from Syrian defences.

Details from news media of your choice.

EDIT TO ADD the Russian aircraft was a transport plane with 15 persons on board, it is feared that all on board perished.


From what I can tell, Israel was attacking Syria and the Russian plane was in the vicinity. So, according to Israel, Syria is 'fully responsible'. Sounds like typical bullshit.
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adam2
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Later report here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45563304

President Putin is now blaming "a tragic set of accidental circumstances" which IMHO is code for "Syria did it, probably by mistake, but since we gave them the weapons and we are backing the Syrian regime, we cant object too strongly"
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 6218
Location: UK

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Russians have said it was the Syrians form the beginning and that the Israelis were using the Russian plane as material cover for their own planes knowing full well it would make it difficult for the Syrians to shoot them down without risking shooting the Russian plane down. Which is, apparently, what happened.

Last edited by Little John on Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:16 pm; edited 1 time in total
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 4857
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Tue Sep 18, 2018 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Perhaps Russian aircraft should not be flying in Syrian airspace?
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