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Russia Watch
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3rdRock
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30490082

Quote:
Russia's central bank made a drastic interest rate move overnight, raising its key rate from 10.5% to 17%.

The bank said the move was to try to ease the rouble's recent fall in value.

The rouble has lost almost 50% against the US dollar this year as falling oil prices and Western sanctions continue to weigh on the country's economy.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The plan is to break Russia and, by implication, seriously undermine the BRIC's attempts to break free of the dollar.

War is coming.
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3rdRock
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Weltschmerz Sad
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3rdRock
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shocked Russian rouble in free-fall despite shock 17% rate rise

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/12/158238/intraday.stm
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
Posts: 12654
Location: York

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marvellous other 1/2 says there's an empirical rule:

"3700/$ price of oil = rub/$ exchange rate"

But it's apparently broken down this week!
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I tell you what Candy, I'd be looking into, albeit remote but nevertheless more plausible with each passing day, the possibility having to decide on Russian/Russian allied territory or USA/USA allied territory to live in. The day may come when things turn really ugly over here. The anti-Russian bullshit and lies we are already subject to is unpleasant enough.

We are nowhere near that day yet, but it is sufficiently plausible that it must have crossed your mind once or twice, I am guessing.
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Mr. Fox



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: In the Dark - looking for my socks

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It has it's advantages, Steve...

I've had fun pointing out to well-remunerated rabid right-wing Russophobes that Russia has a 13% flat income tax rate.

Then I point out that it actually increased tax revenue (perhaps because it's not worth paying an accountant to try to avoid/fiddle it).

If they then make any negative remarks regarding our own domestic tax system, you get to shout "Oh, yeah? Well, if you don't like it, move to Russia" in their face for a change.

It's usually best to step away at this point. Smile
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dmitry Orlov has a very timely article: Can anybody find me a central banker to love?

Dmitry Orlov wrote:
After all, if the central bank acted on behalf of regular Russians and their employers, it could take some very impressive and effective steps. For instance, it could buy out western-held Russian debt and declare force majeur on its repayment until financial sanctions against Russia are lifted. It could drop its interest rate for specifically targeted domestic industries—those involved in import replacement. And, most obviously, it could very effectively curtail the activities of well-connected financial insiders aimed at destroying the value of the ruble. Putin said he knows who they are. I hope that they are wearing adult diapers. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they get Khodorkovskied before too long.


The Russians would be well advised to get rid of their central bankers. Come to think of it we should get rid of ours as well. They are complicit in allowing the zombie banks continue trading and defrauding the general public..
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stevecook172001 wrote:
I tell you what Candy, I'd be looking into, albeit remote but nevertheless more plausible with each passing day, the possibility having to decide on Russian/Russian allied territory or USA/USA allied territory to live in. The day may come when things turn really ugly over here. The anti-Russian bullshit and lies we are already subject to is unpleasant enough.

We are nowhere near that day yet, but it is sufficiently plausible that it must have crossed your mind once or twice, I am guessing.
Yes, in theory our family has "double the chance of a Date on any given night", but in practice there are many reasons why this side the divide is far better for us.

No Draft, for starters.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr. Fox wrote:
It has it's advantages, Steve...

I've had fun pointing out to well-remunerated rabid right-wing Russophobes that Russia has a 13% flat income tax rate.

Then I point out that it actually increased tax revenue (perhaps because it's not worth paying an accountant to try to avoid/fiddle it).

If they then make any negative remarks regarding our own domestic tax system, you get to shout "Oh, yeah? Well, if you don't like it, move to Russia" in their face for a change.

It's usually best to step away at this point. Smile

It is not the tax rate in Russia that maters but the corruption rate. No investment there is safe from the gangs , Putin being the Godfather, until the money has been safely returned to your hands. We should leave them to their own devices and let them fall apart.
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Tarrel



Joined: 29 Nov 2011
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Location: Ross-shire, Scotland

PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
No investment there is safe from the gangs


Ditto in the west. The only difference is our gangs work in Wall St / Canary Wharf and have weekend retreats in The Hamptons.

Quote:
We should leave them to their own devices and let them fall apart.


I really don't think that's a good idea. It'll be a re-run of the rise of Nazi Germany all over again - with nukes.

ETA: We either need to:
Engage with Russia and start looking at the problems we all really face; energy transition, poverty/population growth, Islamic fundamentalism and climate change, or:
Accept our time of global hegemony is over and allow the BRICS to develop into an effective trading block without constant interference.

Constantly trying to drive Russia down will end in misery, and probably death, for everyone.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tarrel wrote:
Quote:
No investment there is safe from the gangs


Ditto in the west. The only difference is our gangs work in Wall St / Canary Wharf and have weekend retreats in The Hamptons.

Quote:
We should leave them to their own devices and let them fall apart.


I really don't think that's a good idea. It'll be a re-run of the rise of Nazi Germany all over again - with nukes.

ETA: We either need to:
Engage with Russia and start looking at the problems we all really face; energy transition, poverty/population growth, Islamic fundamentalism and climate change, or:
Accept our time of global hegemony is over and allow the BRICS to develop into an effective trading block without constant interference.

Constantly trying to drive Russia down will end in misery, and probably death, for everyone.


Spot on Tarrel, we have our own 'acceptable' forms of hugely damaging corruption here in the West.

In my opinion Europe has made the strategic mistake of the century in siding with the US rather than Russia. Relative to Europe, Russia is looking strong for the 21st century - with energy resources, with agricultural potential, with no over-population pressures and with possible even net-positive climate impacts (or at least not nearly as negative as Europe).

Short term economic issues are trivial next to the real challenges of the 21st century - against these Russia is looking stronger than much of 'the west'.
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3rdRock
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tarrel wrote:
Quote:
No investment there is safe from the gangs


Ditto in the west. The only difference is our gangs work in Wall St / Canary Wharf and have weekend retreats in The Hamptons.

Quote:
We should leave them to their own devices and let them fall apart.


I really don't think that's a good idea. It'll be a re-run of the rise of Nazi Germany all over again - with nukes.

ETA: We either need to:
Engage with Russia and start looking at the problems we all really face; energy transition, poverty/population growth, Islamic fundamentalism and climate change, or:
Accept our time of global hegemony is over and allow the BRICS to develop into an effective trading block without constant interference.

Constantly trying to drive Russia down will end in misery, and probably death, for everyone.

Very Happy That'll do nicely.

Those who live on the other side of the pond are always blind to the complexities of world politics. Rolling Eyes

I suppose it's because most Americans haven't travelled - except in times of war. Wink
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3rdRock
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30527984

Quote:
President Vladimir Putin is set to hold his end-of-year news conference amid a growing economic crisis in Russia.

The annual event, which lasted more than four hours last year, will be broadcast live on Russian television.

It is expected to be dominated by debate over the rouble, with Russia's national currency struggling to cope with falling oil prices and sanctions.

The Kremlin leader is also expected to take questions on Ukraine and on Russia's relations with the West.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5272
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shortfall wrote:

Those who live on the other side of the pond are always blind to the complexities of world politics. Rolling Eyes

I suppose it's because most Americans haven't travelled - except in times of war. Wink

I wonder who said that first? Nevil Chamberlain perhaps?
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