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Arctic Ice Watch
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 18552
Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 7:10 am    Post subject: Arctic Ice Watch Reply with quote

A couple of articles recording the Arctic ice:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/08/piomas-august-2013.html

http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/cyclone-raging-on-thin-ice.html

It seems that it's melting. Well it's summer and we haven't stopped burning fossil fuels, so that's not surprising.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 13, 2013 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to the first link

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01901e9aac9b970b-pi

the ice last year was less than it is this year. Maybe we have turned the corner and the ice will be back to "normal" in a few years.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 9732
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 5:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
According to the first link

http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01901e9aac9b970b-pi

the ice last year was less than it is this year. Maybe we have turned the corner and the ice will be back to "normal" in a few years.


Or perhaps it won't!

According to NSIDC


Quote:
While sea ice extent retreated rapidly through the first two weeks of July when the weather was dominated by high pressure and clockwise winds over the central Arctic Ocean, the pace of ice loss for the last half of the month was slower. This was partly due to the return of a stormy pattern that brought more counterclockwise winds and cool conditions, and spread the ice out.



and figure 3 still "shows a decline of 7.4% per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average."
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 14, 2013 6:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That may be so, but neither you nor I will be able to say until the next few years figures are available. It's the problem with cycles, they fluctuate.
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Pepperman



Joined: 10 Oct 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see there being any evidence for a cycle:

[/img]
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Firstly my comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, but if you look at the chart in the link I gave, you can see the years up to 2012 showing a decline,with 2013 so far indicating an increase over 2012.

Here's the update.
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It does look like there will be some small recovery in the ice this year, by area and volume.

However, this is because the ice has fractured and dispersed as never before.

[url=
https://0c35ba35-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20130813_res3.125_pyres.nc.png?attachauth=ANoY7cqk0j_hFttF6SYIfI1DeIPemmq9wIUcJyhWVNgzw4Q_XuAN_MhBT7TwRh5ZJ9fxpsSyNjlXABss7IWLD-WBLPuH2M-KQiUctwUU_qDprrT6KcOmM1OyZi3e5lNjPh_j2J1H5Xh7T3RN-w-X1eMuj0-PIDKePTsqXn_U3xGl7hY5riIIi63XFwalGUxaazWYLJL7JPZKFvNXoj2xw6uhN5LBq3N6PpEO5SV-z9GtlpbZSmkjRqFqk9inLXLt3jFqTwD0EJNH&attredirects=0]
Microwave sea ice image for yesterday[/url]

This may have resulted in more open water being exposed in the spring, leading to evaporation, cload and cyclone formation, strong winds, lower temperatures and more ice fracturing and dispersal. In fact a negative feedback slowing the final stages of of the total melt-out of the ice.

It will still melt out entirely within 5 years.

Sorry about the long link
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Pepperman



Joined: 10 Oct 2010
Posts: 758

PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
Firstly my comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek, but if you look at the chart in the link I gave, you can see the years up to 2012 showing a decline,with 2013 so far indicating an increase over 2012.

Here's the update.


This is simply natural variation. If you have an extreme divergence from a historic trend, it's more likely that the following time will be nearer to the trend than further away.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean
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biffvernon



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: Lincolnshire

PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sam Carana's blog yesterday:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/arctic-sea-ice-in-free-fall.html

Quote:
Arctic Sea Ice in Free Fall

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JavaScriptDonkey



Joined: 02 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Over a less picky time frame shrinking Artic Ice is quite normal. That's how we'll know the Ice Age has finally ended.
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Billhook



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 820
Location: High in the Cambrian Mountains

PostPosted: Sat Aug 17, 2013 3:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JSD - perhaps you could describe the mechanism which in your view prevents the massive warming due to anthro-GHG outputs recorded in the Arctic over the last 60 years from causing the observed degree of seasonal sea-ice loss, thus in your view leaving natural cycles to cause that loss by themselves ?

No ? Thought not.

Regards,

Billhook
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 13892
Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Please post this link to everyone you know, especially if they're in politics or any industry positively contributing to climate change (which means just about everyone).

A very classy 31-second video.

I like this comment from the author, responding to someone who doesn't quite get it:

Quote:
It is alarming, *precisely* because of the brief period! If you thought the last couple of years weather was crazy, wait until we see an ice-free summer soon, then we can discuss, but I'm fed up with discussing the obvious

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Tarrel



Joined: 29 Nov 2011
Posts: 2447
Location: Ross-shire, Scotland

PostPosted: Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is an interview with Paul Beckwith over at radio Ecoshock, in which he gives the current situation 2013 to date:

http://www.ecoshock.net/downloads/ES_130911_Show_LoFi.mp3

It seems that, this year, storms have broken up the (fragile) ice into smaller chunks, which have a large surface area to volume ratio. The melting of these smaller chunks has given rise to local environmental cooling (latent heat of fusion?) which has, in turn, reduced the melting. However, areas around the ice cap are warmer than normal. I guess this means another lazy jetstream and winter blocking pattern, which is in line with current long range forecasts for this winter.
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emordnilap



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PostPosted: Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excellent graphic.


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snow hope



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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Location: outside Belfast, N Ireland

PostPosted: Thu Jan 16, 2014 12:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rather than just looking at a 30 year time scale it would probably help to look at longer time scale. Going back to 1817 shows an interesting piece of information - do you think global warming started back then?

http://www.john-daly.com/polar/arctic.htm

And please read the article rather than put forward straw man arguments....
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