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flood watch
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
The flooding in the Mid West is turning out to be an agricultural nightmare:

Zero Hedge: Shocking Before & After photos reveal the awful truth about widespread US crop failures


Interesting that the pictures appeared to characterize late planting, and not "failure". Sorry Mr and Mrs Farmer, looks like you will be selling your crop later in the summer. The good news? You'll still be selling your crop, and because for some folks there was indeed failure because of the spring flooding (as though that has never happened before!) the prices should be higher than you would otherwise have gotten! Every cloud..silver lining....etc etc....sorry invisible friend of psychotic character in a movie...better luck making up next world is ending story.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So much for more CO2 in the air being good for plant growth!!
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Interesting that the pictures appeared to characterize late planting, and not "failure". Sorry Mr and Mrs Farmer, looks like you will be selling your crop later in the summer. The good news? You'll still be selling your crop, and because for some folks there was indeed failure because of the spring flooding (as though that has never happened before!) the prices should be higher than you would otherwise have gotten! Every cloud..silver lining....etc etc....sorry invisible friend of psychotic character in a movie...better luck making up next world is ending story.


A late planting can end up with a much smaller return or even no return. OK so those lucky ones with some return might make up for some of the loss in higher prices but what about the consumer who will have to pay extra for their food on paltry minimum wages? What about those people in third world countries who now rely on US and EU food aid because previous dumping of surplus crops have put them out of business?

I would summarise your attitude, RGR, as "I'm alright, Jack." Your world might not be ending but many poorer people's world will be.
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Last edited by kenneal - lagger on Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:43 pm; edited 2 times in total
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 463
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
So much for more CO2 in the air being good for plant growth!!


Seems to me that these crop failures (delays) were related to early flooding, and don't have anything at all to do with crop growth other than that.

But you are rightly noting that increased CO2 levels do appear to help crops. According to NASA anyway, I tend to say away from the conversational internet sources whenever possible. I mean seriously, Tyler Durden? What's next, Wiley Coyote as a peak oil expert?


Last edited by ReserveGrowthRulz on Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:51 pm; edited 1 time in total
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

According to some people on this forum, more CO2 relates to increased crop growth - period!!. We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth. Who's to say whether the early flooding was or was not related to more CO2 in the air? But what is plain is that more CO2 doesn't always end up with more crop growth. Other factors apply.
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careful_eugene



Joined: 26 Jun 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
According to some people on this forum, more CO2 relates to increased crop growth - period!!. We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth. Who's to say whether the early flooding was or was not related to more CO2 in the air? But what is plain is that more CO2 doesn't always end up with more crop growth. Other factors apply.

I've heard this argument before from Patrick Moore (Co-founder of Greenpeace), he has put forward the idea that increased crop yields since the 1960's are due to higher levels of CO2 in the air, completely disregarding the effects of the green revolution.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
According to some people on this forum, more CO2 relates to increased crop growth - period!!.


My reference wasn't to people on this forum, but rather a NASA publication. Not the science mind you, but I find that US scientific agencies when discussing their work are less likely to suffer internet hyperbole.

As far as I know, more CO2 is good for crops, but as with most topics (including peak oil and geologists who think that economics isn't involved) there are often tangential issues that are relevant.

kenneal-lagger wrote:


We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth.


I don't believe anyone can make the claim we have less crop growth.

How about, cereal yields in the UK as one example.

Or total US corn output in this century alone.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

Who's to say whether the early flooding was or was not related to more CO2 in the air?


Exactly. Unlike peak oil, where we could measure the claim of a thing (a peak) and then examine the data (oopsy for the claimants), you are basically claiming that because we don't know, we don't know. But we can pretend!

A causal fallacy.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

But what is plain is that more CO2 doesn't always end up with more crop growth. Other factors apply.


Other factors may be all that matters. Your causal fallacy works in both directions.
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careful_eugene



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 3:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


I don't believe anyone can make the claim we have less crop growth.

How about, cereal yields in the UK as one example.

Or total US corn output in this century alone.

What does it matter that the UK produces more now than in 1270 or that the US produces more than in 2001? From 2017 - 2018 there was a 5.5% decrease in UK cereal crop yields (entirely due to the weather last year). Doesn't that count as "less crop growth?"
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My comments related to the post above and the crop loss in the US this year due to abnormal rains. It was not a comment on previous year's crop yeilds.

A poster on this forum has said that more CO2 in the atmosphere increases crop yields while I have said that to take CO2 in isolation is not the true picture as crop yeilds depend on a range of factors. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is related to a number of disturbances in weather patterns and these weather patterns will have a noticeable influence on crop yeilds.

One of the predicted outcomes of increased CO2 will be more extreme weather and the length of the rains and their timing is unusual. Last years spring heavy rain in the UK and the extremely dry summer following resulted in a more than 5% drop in wheat yeilds and nearly 8% drop in barley despite the extra CO2.

To say that all that increase in UK cereal yeilds is due to CO2 is certainly a fallacy as almost all commentators would put it down to plant breeding and increased fertiliser use. Neither was I talking about total crop yeilds in this century. You are cherry picking statistics for your own benefit.

Your opinion is that weather happens while my opinion, gleaned from my personal appraisal of the science and my observations of weather in the UK over the years, is that we are seeing the increased extremes in weather predicted by climate scientists. I would like to see action taken on the climate hile you, RGR, are happy to bury your head in the sand and just carry on with business as usual.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

careful_eugene wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


I don't believe anyone can make the claim we have less crop growth.

How about, cereal yields in the UK as one example.

Or total US corn output in this century alone.

What does it matter that the UK produces more now than in 1270 or that the US produces more than in 2001? From 2017 - 2018 there was a 5.5% decrease in UK cereal crop yields (entirely due to the weather last year). Doesn't that count as "less crop growth?"


I just presented some data that is counter-indicative to the idea that increased CO2 in the atmosphere sure hasn't caused crop yields or total volume of production to go down. Nothing more, because otherwise someone might read into anything more complex all sorts of things that I said nothing about.

I see that I failed in hoping that keeping things simple wouldn't cause folks to insert their hopes, dreams and preferred context into what little I did provide.

<sigh> Smile
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 5:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
My comments related to the post above and the crop loss in the US this year due to abnormal rains. It was not a comment on previous year's crop yeilds.


I see. Then this statement wasn't meant to be factual.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

We have nearly 50% extra CO2 ion the air but less crop growth.


kenneal-lagger wrote:

A poster on this forum has said that more CO2 in the atmosphere increases crop yields while I have said that to take CO2 in isolation is not the true picture as crop yeilds depend on a range of factors. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is related to a number of disturbances in weather patterns and these weather patterns will have a noticeable influence on crop yeilds.


Increased CO2, increased CH4, sun spots, ocean currents, the current eruption of volcanoes, humans, continental drift, El Nino's, sure, all sorts of things are involved.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

One of the predicted outcomes of increased CO2 will be more extreme weather and the length of the rains and their timing is unusual.


We should all hope so. Warmer air contains both more energy, and generally speaking, water. This is a good thing to those places that can hold it and use it later, natural to those of us living in the American West, but perhaps a lesson others need to learn, for both control of flow and making sure they have some around in the off seasons.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

Last years spring heavy rain in the UK and the extremely dry summer following resulted in a more than 5% drop in wheat yeilds and nearly 8% drop in barley despite the extra CO2.


Did anyone here EVER claim that CO2 increased yields would compensate for all the other things that screw up a planting season? Because that is nearly as funny as the folks who claimed that geologic scarcity was going to cause peak oil, without those people understanding anything about geologic endowment first.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

Your opinion is that weather happens....


Weather happening is not an opinion, it is a fact. Whether or not you or I like any particular weather is something else altogether.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

... while my opinion, gleaned from my personal appraisal of the science and my observations of weather in the UK over the years, is that we are seeing the increased extremes in weather predicted by climate scientists.


Same here. I can't speak to the accuracy of climate scientists who do things like use data from temperature stations placed in the backwash of jet aircraft, but I have been concerned ever since scientists told us that we would all be suffering through starvation and pollution back in the 1970's because of all their vast academically oriented knowledge and expertise of...whatever it was they decided were good indicators of predicting the future.

If I was a Brit, I might be a little more concerned about my latitude location in the long run. Climate/weather variability has been a given since long before you and I were born, and I do find it a bit perplexing that stocastic systems are described with words like "extremes in weather". I mean really, can't they get a decent statistician working for them that can describe this with a decent probability density function or something? What the hell is an extreme to you, because if there is one thing I can guarantee you, your extreme sure isn't mine.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

I would like to see action taken on the climate hile you, RGR, are happy to bury your head in the sand and just carry on with business as usual.


I am happily not even using liquid fuels anymore for my random selfish transport hither and thither. How do you manage to accomplish what us non-head in sand folks are doing, ride a horse?
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BritDownUnder



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Supposedly some plants using the C4 metabolic pathway, rather than the more common C3 pathway thrive in tropical areas. Supposedly they evolved to tolerate extremes of heat and metabolise CO2 more efficiently. Examples of C4 food plants are maize, millet, sugar cane and sorghum. Most other food crops are C3 which are more common in temperate areas.

Perhaps the world will shift to these crops in an era of hotter temperatures and higher CO2 concentrations. Time will tell.
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woodburner



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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
My comments related to the post above and the crop loss in the US this year due to abnormal rains. It was not a comment on previous year's crop yeilds.

A poster on this forum has said that more CO2 in the atmosphere increases crop yields while I have said that to take CO2 in isolation is not the true picture as crop yeilds depend on a range of factors. Increased CO2 in the atmosphere is related to a number of disturbances in weather patterns and these weather patterns will have a noticeable influence on crop yeilds.

One of the predicted outcomes of increased CO2 will be more extreme weather and the length of the rains and their timing is unusual. Last years spring heavy rain in the UK and the extremely dry summer following resulted in a more than 5% drop in wheat yeilds and nearly 8% drop in barley despite the extra CO2.

To say that all that increase in UK cereal yeilds is due to CO2 is certainly a fallacy as almost all commentators would put it down to plant breeding and increased fertiliser use. Neither was I talking about total crop yeilds in this century. You are cherry picking statistics for your own benefit.

Your opinion is that weather happens while my opinion, gleaned from my personal appraisal of the science and my observations of weather in the UK over the years, is that we are seeing the increased extremes in weather predicted by climate scientists. I would like to see action taken on the climate hile you, RGR, are happy to bury your head in the sand and just carry on with business as usual.


Cherry picking seems to be common then. I said plant growth increases with CO2 increases, crop yeilds is a different matter. Cereals for example are now shorter straw and more seed head, whereas they used to be longer straw and smaller seed head. One of the old varieties was square head master. Very good for thatching, as long as it was harvested correctly. Todays short straw varieties would be useless for thatching, though may be ok for straw bale houses.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
....Cherry picking seems to be common then. I said plant growth increases with CO2 increases, crop yeilds is a different matter. Cereals for example are now shorter straw and more seed head, whereas they used to be longer straw and smaller seed head. One of the old varieties was square head master. Very good for thatching, as long as it was harvested correctly. Todays short straw varieties would be useless for thatching, though may be ok for straw bale houses.


We will know in a year or two if there has been reduced plant growth over the last two years because of inferior growing conditions by an examination of tree rings. If tree rings are narrower despite increased CO2 content of the air that will tell of the lie of increased plant growth in any situation of increased CO2. As far as I know there aren't many measures of general plant growth apart from tree ring width and crop yeilds. If anyone know of any I would be pleased to be told.

What the hell have modern or traditional straw varieties and their straw length got to do with CO2 content of the atmosphere?
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BritDownUnder wrote:
Supposedly some plants using the C4 metabolic pathway, rather than the more common C3 pathway thrive in tropical areas. Supposedly they evolved to tolerate extremes of heat and metabolise CO2 more efficiently. Examples of C4 food plants are maize, millet, sugar cane and sorghum. Most other food crops are C3 which are more common in temperate areas.

Perhaps the world will shift to these crops in an era of hotter temperatures and higher CO2 concentrations. Time will tell.


The problem in the Mid West of the US at the moment is increased rainfall caused by higher temperatures and maize doesn't like a wet seed bed. Global warming is also known as climate change for a reason; global warming can cause huge changes in local climates and doesn't necessarily mean that current climate will just move north a bit each year.
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