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the frack thread
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boisdevie



Joined: 26 Dec 2012
Posts: 270
Location: N Lancashire

PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
If the government insulated our homes properly we wouldn't need so much gas. Such insulation could reduce the national requirement by 30% at least on the basis that 40% of gas is used in home heating and an 80% saving is possible.


Instead of the government taking money off people and then spending some of it on insulating homes of the same people, couldn't the people themselves use their money to insulate their homes?
PS - I'm a big fan of very small government given that taxation is theft.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11033
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
If the government insulated our homes properly we wouldn't need so much gas. Such insulation could reduce the national requirement by 30% at least on the basis that 40% of gas is used in home heating and an 80% saving is possible.


Instead of the government taking money off people and then spending some of it on insulating homes of the same people, couldn't the people themselves use their money to insulate their homes?
PS - I'm a big fan of very small government given that taxation is theft.


They should pay for it by Quantitative Easing. i.e. they should just print the damn stuff like they did to bail out the banks. The situation is just as bad as it was when they bailed their mates out.

The "economics" of the situation just don't stack up for most people because economics is broken and doesn't take into account environmental issues. We have an environmental imperative to act on climate change so either we readjust all economics to make it feasible for everyone to do or the government just prints the money and gets on with sorting the situation out. I don't think that we have the time to sort economics out but the government can conjour up the money at the flick of a mouse switch.
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emordnilap



Joined: 05 Sep 2007
Posts: 14525
Location: Houǝsʇlʎ' ᴉʇ,s ɹǝɐllʎ uoʇ ʍoɹʇɥ ʇɥǝ ǝɟɟoɹʇ' pou,ʇ ǝʌǝu qoʇɥǝɹ˙

PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 9:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a matter of feeding printed money in at the bottom and taxing it out at the top, boisdevie. In other words, too sensible to ever happen.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5199
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Wed May 01, 2019 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:

PS - I'm a big fan of very small government given that taxation is theft.

While many a tax dollar is wasted it can not be said that all taxation is theft.
Would you like to live in a community with no public roads, National defense, police protection, or ambulance service to name a few legitimate uses of tax dollars.
The problem is finding elected officials to vote for that will only raise and spend the taxes that are really worthwhile. They are scarcer then hens teeth.
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BritDownUnder



Joined: 21 Sep 2011
Posts: 527
Location: Hunter Valley, NSW, Australia

PostPosted: Thu May 02, 2019 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am surprised in the windy (and occasionally sunny) UK someone has not invented a rooftop mounted wind and/or solar powered heat pump to replace or alleviate gas heating. On a cloudy day in Australia yesterday my water was still solar heated to 42 degC. I am all for the ending of gas power but there are a lot of nasty ruthless people in that industry who are very self interested and can buy a lot of friends.

I was very interested in one of the links posted earlier on this thread on the Drill or Drop website that the Egmanton oil field is still producing oil (about 240 m^3 last year so the Saudis can sleep easy). It has been there all my life, I was born there, and one of my earliest memories as a naughty child was going up to what was must have been an injection well, turning a wheel valve and seeing an oily black watery liquid shooting out the end of a pipe nearly hitting my 5 year old partner in crime.
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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1779

PostPosted: Fri May 10, 2019 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Shale Boom is about to go bust

Quote:
As the shale play matures, the field gets crowded, the sweet spots are all drilled, and some of these operational problems begin to mushroom. “Declining well productivity in some plays, despite application of better technology, are a prelude to what will eventually happen in all plays: production will fall as costs rise,” Hughes said. “Assuming shale production can grow forever based on ever-improving technology is a mistake—geology will ultimately dictate the costs and quantity of resources that can be recovered.”

There are already examples of this scenario unfolding. The Eagle Ford and Bakken, for instance, are both “mature plays,” Hughes argues, in which the best acreage has been picked over. Better technology and an intensification of drilling techniques have arrested decline, and even led to a renewed increase in production. But ultimate recovery won’t be any higher; drilling techniques merely allow “the play to be drained with fewer wells,” Hughes said. And in the case of the Eagle Ford, “there appears to be significant deterioration in longer-term well productivity through overcrowding of wells in sweet spots, resulting in well interference and/or drilling in more marginal areas that are outside of sweet-spots within counties.”

In other words, a more aggressive drilling approach just frontloads production, and leads to exhaustion sooner. “Technology improvements appear to have hit the law of diminishing returns in terms of increasing production—they cannot reverse the realities of over-crowded wells and geology,” Hughes said.

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raspberry-blower



Joined: 14 Mar 2009
Posts: 1779

PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Early financial reports from Q1 in 2019 demonstrate that fracking companies are still losing money hand over fist. It also appears that investors are finally waking up to the idea that this may never be any major returns on investment.

Nick Cunningham:

A Gusher of Red Ink for US Shale Oil

Quote:
The industry kept humming along over the past few years, riding out multiple downturns due to periodic reinjections of capital from Wall Street. But, investors are beginning to sour on shale drillers. Very little fresh capital has been raised by shale companies, either from new equity or bond issuance, since late last year, according to IEEFA and Sightline.

The industry now finds itself at a cross roads. With capital markets beginning to shun shale drillers, consolidation is likely the direction the industry will take. The best bet for struggling companies now is to find a willing buyer.

But several oil majors have recently said that shale drillers are fooling themselves with their asking prices. “Most of the things we see tend to look overpriced, and we have tried to maintain cool heads,” Royal Dutch Shell’s CFO Jessica Uhl said on Tuesday, according to Argus Media. Exxon’s CEO Darren Woods echoed that, saying last week that there is “not always alignment among buyers and sellers.” ConocoPhillips’ chief executive Ryan Lance said there are “a lot of bid-ask issues in the market today,” adding that an “expectations change” will be needed before more M&A can occur.

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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 49
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
The Shale Boom is about to go bust

Quote:
As the shale play matures, the field gets crowded, the sweet spots are all drilled, and some of these operational problems begin to mushroom. “Declining well productivity in some plays, despite application of better technology, are a prelude to what will eventually happen in all plays: production will fall as costs rise,” Hughes said. “Assuming shale production can grow forever based on ever-improving technology is a mistake—geology will ultimately dictate the costs and quantity of resources that can be recovered.”

There are already examples of this scenario unfolding. The Eagle Ford and Bakken, for instance, are both “mature plays,” Hughes argues, in which the best acreage has been picked over. Better technology and an intensification of drilling techniques have arrested decline, and even led to a renewed increase in production. But ultimate recovery won’t be any higher; drilling techniques merely allow “the play to be drained with fewer wells,” Hughes said. And in the case of the Eagle Ford, “there appears to be significant deterioration in longer-term well productivity through overcrowding of wells in sweet spots, resulting in well interference and/or drilling in more marginal areas that are outside of sweet-spots within counties.”

In other words, a more aggressive drilling approach just frontloads production, and leads to exhaustion sooner. “Technology improvements appear to have hit the law of diminishing returns in terms of increasing production—they cannot reverse the realities of over-crowded wells and geology,” Hughes said.


Nick's reporting is suspect several reasons, not the least of which is being an industry neophyte and more importantly relying on David "It's the EIA's fault that I haven't been right yet about resource play potential" Hughes. I believe he learned about well interference in his last report, the one before the most current that he now wants to sell. I haven't paid for the most recent, but I've been through all his others. I am familiar with his routine. It will be the EIAs fault that somehow shale production didn't crash and burn the better part of a decade ago before it got started.

The good news for David Hughes is that the EIA has been substantiating some doomer ideas in regards to resource OIL production and has built those ideas into their models that only now is David discussing. Last week the EIA had their industry workshop, and both David and I were there. The EIA has been accounting for well inference since about 2014 or so, and they are also running a peak oil scenario in the early to mid 2020's, but not in natural gas. Of course, their modeling is quite thorough compared to what David does, and their expertise far more substantial.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 49
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

raspberry-blower wrote:
Early financial reports from Q1 in 2019 demonstrate that fracking companies are still losing money hand over fist. It also appears that investors are finally waking up to the idea that this may never be any major returns on investment.

Nick Cunningham:

A Gusher of Red Ink for US Shale Oil


Robert Rapier, with a demonstration that even a peak oiler can figure out how non cash expenses like DD&A work.

Someone please tell me that the Brits at least haven't fallen for "analysis" as written by the likes of Steve St. Angelo and the SRSRocco report?
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