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the frack thread
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11271
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Net energy won't necessarily affect the price of oil or its usage but it will have an effect on how much work can be undertaken in the rest of the economy because it will effect the amount of energy there is available to do work other than extract energy.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 271
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Net energy won't necessarily affect the price of oil or its usage but it will have an effect on how much work can be undertaken in the rest of the economy because it will effect the amount of energy there is available to do work other than extract energy.


Well, net energy has been declining for like half a century or more now, according to those who show graphs on such things. And during all that decline, the world has reacted with growth and improved lifestyle and more population.

So with this strong of a negative correlation, I say...bring on some more declining net energy!!!
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7027
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 271
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on


Bring what on? You agreed with me.

Net energy has been going down, down, down and you, and I, and everyone on this board and people around the world have gained higher standards of living, neato communication toys, higher wages, access to capital the likes of which never could happen in my youth for someone wanting to start a business, globalization in manufacturing and knock on gains because of increased efficiencies, and so on and so forth.

I just find it amusing that net energy folks are calling for an inflection point of some sort, and continue to wait for it to be visible.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7027
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Little John wrote:
Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on


Bring what on? You agreed with me.

Net energy has been going down, down, down and you, and I, and everyone on this board and people around the world have gained higher standards of living, neato communication toys, higher wages, access to capital the likes of which never could happen in my youth for someone wanting to start a business, globalization in manufacturing and knock on gains because of increased efficiencies, and so on and so forth.

I just find it amusing that net energy folks are calling for an inflection point of some sort, and continue to wait for it to be visible.
The majority of ordinary citizens in the majority of industrialized countries in the world have not seen their conditions improve in essential terms. The specific picture on the ground has been merely muddied, for a while at least, by the substitution of real income for debt. But, even that little game has now drawn to a close for many people. Or, rather, to the extent they are still using debt as an alternative income stream, this is now being used to pay for the essentials just to keep head above water.

Do I really need to pull up the numbers showing declines in real wages and concomitant increases in debt?

Or would that be pointless given your response would almost certainly be more obfuscatory bullshit?
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 271
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The majority of ordinary citizens in the majority of industrialized countries in the world have not seen their conditions improve in essential terms.


I suppose we would need to agree on what essential terms are to discuss this.

Little John wrote:

The specific picture on the ground has been merely muddied, for a while at least, by the substitution of real income for debt.


What might your specific objection to debt be? In my world, debt can never be a substitute for real income, because when I borrow, I then take a direct hit to my real income to repay the debt.

Is the way you understand debt's effect on income different?

Little John wrote:

Do I really need to pull up the numbers showing declines in real wages and concomitant increases in debt?


I don't believe so. I know debt has been increasing, globally. Real wage increases in the developed world look reasonable, so no overall decline. Do you have conflicting data?




Little john wrote:

Or would that be pointless given your response would almost certainly be more obfuscatory bullshit?


Well, if you have no interest in a conversation, and aren't even willing to hear the answer before assuming you won't like what I have to say, we can certainly stop conversing on this topic.

I will note that you have only claimed that net energy is being hidden by what look to be normal macro economic trends and financial mechanisms, has anyone else advanced these ideas in, say, a refereed journal of some sort or another?
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