PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

[PVpost] UK oil demand flat for the past 20 years

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Living in the Future
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:19 pm    Post subject: [PVpost] UK oil demand flat for the past 20 years Reply with quote

This is an edited re-post of a topic that existed before the forums were hit by a virus in June 2005. Please feel free to add comments at the end.

I was surprised to see that UK oil demand has essentially been flat for TWO decades:

http://www.og.dti.gov.uk/consultations/Annex3.doc

This makes me think that rising prices are doing their thing - creating efficency and reducing demand. Hasn't the population been pretty stable?
Hasn't GDP (flawed though it is) been rising? What am I missing here? Oh yes, nat. gas.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/uk.html
Quote:
The last decade has seen a significant increase in UK demand for natural gas, up 37% between 1993 and 2002. In its Ten Year Statement 2003, Transco, the UK?s pipeline operator, highlighted two factors behind the increased demand for natural gas: 1) falling prices due to supply surplus and to increased gas on gas competition in the 1990s; and 2) increased number of combined cycle natural gas-fired generation plants. Transco also projected that UK natural gas demand will grow at an annual rate of 1.7% until 2012/13, with natural gas? share of primary energy supply rising to 46%.


So rising gas prices may curtail demand in the future.


Last edited by PVPoster1 on Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:22 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is this partly because in the past 10 years a lot of people have switched to diesel cars?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No. If you page down a bit there's a second graph that splits the demand into various fractions, including diesel.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Tue Jun 28, 2005 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry, I should have made myself clearer. What I meant was that if more car owners switch from petrol to diesel, total oil use goes down, as a diesel is more efficient. This shows up in the graph you mention, as petrol stays flat (or even declines slightly) over the 18 years shown, but diesel goes up.

I'd bet that if all the diesel cars were instead running on petrol, then total demand might have had a slight upward trend.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Dan



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2
Location: Brighton

PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2005 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say the crucial element there is that for the last twenty years or so we've been manufacturing bugger all. Our demand for manufactured products hasn't dropped though, they just get made elsewhere where it's cheaper. If you analyse the amount of oil the UK has consumed indirectly over the last twenty years, ie. the oil that has gone into manufacturing and transporting all the stuff we import, then it must have risen considerably.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Living in the Future All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group