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[PVpost] 2030

 
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PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:57 pm    Post subject: [PVpost] 2030 Reply with quote

This is an edited re-post of a topic that existed before the forums were hit by a virus in June 2005. Please feel free to add comments at the end.


30 years from now, due to running on 1970s level of oil but at much higher prices, UK economy goes tits up, mass unemployment, big demand for (a) energy and (b) employment
With labour probably being much cheaper the cost of mining for coal will drop so we see a massive return to low paid coal mining. I mean, in theory, if we are still sticking to Kyoto by then and we are creating less carbon emissions due to not using so much oil (because we physically can't get at it) then that difference (and more) will be made up with coal.
Meanwhile, oligarchy is still trying to keep it business as usual and most people are shipped around by bus or train to their places of work, those who are lucky - or unlucky - enough to have it. However, the deglobalisation of the world and the cost of using machines to produce goods will see more local goods produced by a population returning to cheap manual labour - and begging! Meanwhile 'Those In Power'(tm) can carry on, business as usual, enjoying a fantastic lifestyle while the population dive into deeper poverty in a near Police state, necessary for oligarchy to retain control.

Does that make sense?


Last edited by PVPoster1 on Wed Jun 29, 2005 7:01 pm; edited 2 times in total
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PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see much of a long-term resurgence in coal-fired power because by 2030 the affects of global warming will be all too apparent. My fear is that nuclear will be the prefered option to fill the gap between what renewables can supply and the still unsustainable level of demand.

As for employment, I would guess that a large proportion of the population will simply not be looking for jobs and will be occupied in 'old-fashioned' tasks like home baking and cooking, vegetable growing, food preservation and clothes mending. There will be many more people than now employed in agriculture, fixing things and making things from scratch. There may also have been a drop in the population by then as people migrate to warmer climates.

One of the best benefits of PO is that 'government' will be severely reduced as taxes then won't support all the current activities that we allow those 'in power' to inflict on us. In fact I believe that the political class will be thoroughly discredited by 2030 as people become aware that they're been hoodwinked over the past 50 years and that freedom from consumption allows them to re-connect with what it means to be human.
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PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually - I like the idea of being more human in that way.. Think about it - most of the happiest people in the world are living simple lives. When I get up and drive my long commute to the office I wonder why I bother. I get there and work on things that I generally enjoy - but it's very hard to see the connection between the work I'm doing and the benefit to humankind. Generally I work for large organisations whose aim is profit. How refreshing it would be to wake up and know that I had a part to play in my own survival, and the survival of those I love. Don't get me wrong - I understand that the luxury we've grown up in has made us soft and that 'living off the land' is nigh impossible for most of us - but even all that hardship has to be better than a world in which most people have no clue why they're here, and 50% of the adult population is on anti-depressants.
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PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe in a two speeds model :
- countryside model based on rise in agriculture
- flat demography model or even reduction of world population, because productivity conditions are not enough to meet people basic needs
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PVPoster1



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 385

PostPosted: Wed Jun 29, 2005 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

<about freedom from many gov controls being a happy side effect of PO>

In fact, when you have local economies and local currency and mostly you just do work to directly help yourself or your neighbour then you immediately break out of the current cycles of passing wealth to big corporations and gov bodies

if your part of town decides they need (say) tables and chairs, they can just put together a place to work and (skills permitting) start making the goods - no council procedures, no bank loan, no investment capital and no taxes paid (assuming you give the goods away in return for something else)

althought you do have to be careful of starting another round of local deforestation....
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LaurieS



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 2

PostPosted: Thu Jun 30, 2005 11:43 am    Post subject: The problem with coal mines Reply with quote

Hi,
I'm not claiming any expertese in this area but I believe that a return to coal mining has two major problems.
1) Most deep level mines require continuous water extraction, when they are closed they are not closed with a mind for future re opening but left to flood, this seriously undermines the structure and safety of the mine and precludes easy rehabilitation.
2) In britain we are probably way past 'peak coal', although I say again I have no evidence for this but as with oil all the easy stuff was found first, lying around on the surface then we had to dig deeper and deeper and the net energy gained decreased.

I have serious doubts that coal could provide anything more than a short term panic solution.

of course what do I know

Laurie
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