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Steven Roach - Globalization's First Oil Shock

 
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fishertrop



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 859
Location: Sheffield

PostPosted: Sun Aug 28, 2005 8:33 pm    Post subject: Steven Roach - Globalization's First Oil Shock Reply with quote

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050826-fri.html#anchor0

Quote:
This is the first oil shock in the modern era of globalization.
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macsporan



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 10
Location: Australia

PostPosted: Thu Sep 08, 2005 8:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is a very sobering article. The US seems to be very much the credit-junkie of the world. When junkies can't buy anymore then the dealers go bust.

The American economy is very overstretched. What this means in practical terms is that it will retain an appearance of strength right up until the time when it suddenly collapses.

When this happens we are looking at another Great Depression, which like its predecessor will rapidly spread around the world.

It will not be nice for the most part but there will be good aspects to it.

One is that oil consumption will go down, giving us more time to adjust to PO.

The other is that demand for Third World agricultural commodities will decline. That means, all other things being equal, these people will be able to grow more food for themselves.

Another is that social, political and economic radicalism will become more fashionable once more, opening the way to the chance for substantial change, which is, of course, just what we want.

Conversely it opens the way for fascism, but opportunity for one is opportunity for all.

In any case if a Depression is all we have to suffer then we can count ourselves lucky.

It is wonderous indeed that I, born in 1957, will see both the zenith of the Empire and the onset of its Decline and Fall.

We live in interesting times. Cool
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