PowerSwitch Main Page
PowerSwitch
The UK's Peak Oil Discussion Forum & Community
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

the frack thread
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 48, 49, 50  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Living in the Future
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11379
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Net energy won't necessarily affect the price of oil or its usage but it will have an effect on how much work can be undertaken in the rest of the economy because it will effect the amount of energy there is available to do work other than extract energy.
_________________
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
Net energy won't necessarily affect the price of oil or its usage but it will have an effect on how much work can be undertaken in the rest of the economy because it will effect the amount of energy there is available to do work other than extract energy.


Well, net energy has been declining for like half a century or more now, according to those who show graphs on such things. And during all that decline, the world has reacted with growth and improved lifestyle and more population.

So with this strong of a negative correlation, I say...bring on some more declining net energy!!!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7217
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 8:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on


Bring what on? You agreed with me.

Net energy has been going down, down, down and you, and I, and everyone on this board and people around the world have gained higher standards of living, neato communication toys, higher wages, access to capital the likes of which never could happen in my youth for someone wanting to start a business, globalization in manufacturing and knock on gains because of increased efficiencies, and so on and so forth.

I just find it amusing that net energy folks are calling for an inflection point of some sort, and continue to wait for it to be visible.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7217
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
Little John wrote:
Net energy has indeed been declining for getting on for fifty years. And our economic systems have compensated for this in a variety of ways

1) Firstly, by improvements in production techniques. But, this has its limits and has been superseded by:

2) Rejigging the political and economic system in order to draw a greater share of diminishing profits to the upper echelons leading to:

3) an increasing proportion of ordinary citizen having to use debt as a secondary income stream to supplement their diminishing share of the profits of the economic system leading to:

4) a partial collapse of the economic system due to unserviceable personal debt leading to:

5) the transformation of personal debt into state debt in the form of reduced public services. In other words, "austerity" across most of the world for anyone not in the top few percent of the economic system. Not to mention a growing number of proxy military conflicts arising in the remaining relatively oil rich parts of the world as the major players fight over the remaining scraps. All of which are steadily transforming into direct conflicts. All of which is finally leading to:

6) Growing internal political rebellions across much of the world.

Oh yes, bring it on


Bring what on? You agreed with me.

Net energy has been going down, down, down and you, and I, and everyone on this board and people around the world have gained higher standards of living, neato communication toys, higher wages, access to capital the likes of which never could happen in my youth for someone wanting to start a business, globalization in manufacturing and knock on gains because of increased efficiencies, and so on and so forth.

I just find it amusing that net energy folks are calling for an inflection point of some sort, and continue to wait for it to be visible.
The majority of ordinary citizens in the majority of industrialized countries in the world have not seen their conditions improve in essential terms. The specific picture on the ground has been merely muddied, for a while at least, by the substitution of real income for debt. But, even that little game has now drawn to a close for many people. Or, rather, to the extent they are still using debt as an alternative income stream, this is now being used to pay for the essentials just to keep head above water.

Do I really need to pull up the numbers showing declines in real wages and concomitant increases in debt?

Or would that be pointless given your response would almost certainly be more obfuscatory bullshit?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Yahoo Messenger
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 01, 2019 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The majority of ordinary citizens in the majority of industrialized countries in the world have not seen their conditions improve in essential terms.


I suppose we would need to agree on what essential terms are to discuss this.

Little John wrote:

The specific picture on the ground has been merely muddied, for a while at least, by the substitution of real income for debt.


What might your specific objection to debt be? In my world, debt can never be a substitute for real income, because when I borrow, I then take a direct hit to my real income to repay the debt.

Is the way you understand debt's effect on income different?

Little John wrote:

Do I really need to pull up the numbers showing declines in real wages and concomitant increases in debt?


I don't believe so. I know debt has been increasing, globally. Real wage increases in the developed world look reasonable, so no overall decline. Do you have conflicting data?




Little john wrote:

Or would that be pointless given your response would almost certainly be more obfuscatory bullshit?


Well, if you have no interest in a conversation, and aren't even willing to hear the answer before assuming you won't like what I have to say, we can certainly stop conversing on this topic.

I will note that you have only claimed that net energy is being hidden by what look to be normal macro economic trends and financial mechanisms, has anyone else advanced these ideas in, say, a refereed journal of some sort or another?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
adam2
Site Admin


Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7362
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

"government pulls support for fracking"

Not quite the same as an actual ban, but an absence of government support might well end up as a de facto ban.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50267454
_________________
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5353
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That is OK for now with world supplies more then adequate. But when supplies eventually decline,as we all know they will ,the pressure to resume fracking will overcome any opposition. The one bright spot in this for the UK is that they will save their supplies that can be fracked for that time when supplies are declining and prices are high. No sense selling it today for $55 when you can sell the same gas and oil for $200 in the future. Also the technology of both recovery rates and safety will advance in the interim so the problems and dangers of extraction will most likely be decreased.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
"government pulls support for fracking"

Not quite the same as an actual ban, but an absence of government support might well end up as a de facto ban.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50267454
well,

Ban away!

The more of a economic competitive advantage the world wants to hand the US, well...sure!!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
That is OK for now with world supplies more then adequate. But when supplies eventually decline,as we all know they will ,the pressure to resume fracking will overcome any opposition. The one bright spot in this for the UK is that they will save their supplies that can be fracked for that time when supplies are declining and prices are high. No sense selling it today for $55 when you can sell the same gas and oil for $200 in the future. Also the technology of both recovery rates and safety will advance in the interim so the problems and dangers of extraction will most likely be decreased.


Ah yes, all of this is so true. But the real nut to crack is what is the price required to secure those "leave it in the ground!!!!....until we need it!!!" resources?

While peak oil demand appears to be a very real threat on the horizon, natural gas does not currently show the same inclination.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5353
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


Ah yes, all of this is so true. But the real nut to crack is what is the price required to secure those "leave it in the ground!!!!....until we need it!!!" resources?

While peak oil demand appears to be a very real threat on the horizon, natural gas does not currently show the same inclination.

While gas supplies seem ample at present one would expect the decline in oil supplies to immediately put pressure on gas as a substitute and prices will rise to whatever it takes to suppress demand down to the total supply of both in BOE [barrel of oil equivalent].
Worldwide discoveries of new oil are dropping off even when they include gas in BOE figures. One estimate has them only finding one new barrel for every six we are burning through.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
eatyourveg



Joined: 15 Jul 2007
Posts: 1190
Location: uk

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/nov/02/fracking-banned-in-uk-as-government-makes-major-u-turn

It's all over for the moment.

Oops noticed already posted.
_________________
"Rules are for the guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools". Douglas Bader.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:


Ah yes, all of this is so true. But the real nut to crack is what is the price required to secure those "leave it in the ground!!!!....until we need it!!!" resources?

While peak oil demand appears to be a very real threat on the horizon, natural gas does not currently show the same inclination.

While gas supplies seem ample at present one would expect the decline in oil supplies to immediately put pressure on gas as a substitute and prices will rise to whatever it takes to suppress demand down to the total supply of both in BOE [barrel of oil equivalent].


Things ALWAYS seem ample at present...in the present. Of course, peak oilers said the same thing, that sure, today they are ample, but tomorrow! DOOM! And no, peak oil demand does NOT mean that natural gas prices will respond, obviously because a lessening in crude demand does NOT require an increase in crude prices, therefore no required substitution from GTLs.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Worldwide discoveries of new oil are dropping off even when they include gas in BOE figures. One estimate has them only finding one new barrel for every six we are burning through.


Worldwide discoveries of crude oil don't even include the "discoveries" that created Saudi America...a tricky dick, that one. When all else fails, using censored data is a time honored peak oil tradition, and didn't work then, have you got any reason or research that proves it will work this time?

You are aware of the published science on reserve growth, after the last peak oil hysteria go-round? Global volume estimates released by the USGS during my absence? Want to bet they weren't considered in your replacement calculation either? And yet they exist in massive volumes, just as I have been discussing, and using as a username, for nearly 15 years now.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5353
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

Worldwide discoveries of crude oil don't even include the "discoveries" that created Saudi America...a tricky dick, that one.
The "discoveries" that created the so called Saudi America were just improved technologies that improved the recovery rate from long ago discovered existing fields. They did not create of find any new oil or gas as that number was fixed back before we came out of the trees and started walking upright.
Reserves are a number that changes with the price of oil which is effected by the demand for it. Actual supplies existing in the ground on the other hand is a fixed if unknown number which we will someday (perhaps sooner then later)come to understand after we have wasted most of it just building fires to boil water and move ice engine cars around with one passenger each.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 405
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:

Worldwide discoveries of crude oil don't even include the "discoveries" that created Saudi America...a tricky dick, that one.
The "discoveries" that created the so called Saudi America were just improved technologies that improved the recovery rate from long ago discovered existing fields.


When the US outproduces Saudi Arabia, it isn't "so called" anymore.

In either case, it sounds as though you are describing reserve growth, a quite valid mechanism that I happen to be named after. Smile

Can you name even 1 of these "old" fields, discovered long ago, now producing 1 or 2 of these new millions of new barrels per day?

vtsnowedin wrote:

They did not create of find any new oil or gas as that number was fixed back before we came out of the trees and started walking upright.


You are now talking about the original in place volumes, not the volumes discussed by Happy McPeaksters. While their ignorance of changes in incremental recovery factor (and the economics of how that happens) is now well documented, you are describing the geoscience research on the topic completed by the USGS some 5 years ago now.

Them knowing this, as opposed to the Happy McPeaksters, perhaps explaining why they never jumped on board with the amateur hour show of Happy McPeaksters.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Reserves are a number that changes with the price of oil which is effected by the demand for it.


Of course they are.

vtsnowedin wrote:

Actual supplies existing in the ground on the other hand is a fixed if unknown number which we will someday (perhaps sooner then later)come to understand after we have wasted most of it just building fires to boil water and move ice engine cars around with one passenger each.


Fixed but UNCERTAIN, not unknown. The USGS utilized exactly that number when doing the current state of the art research on this topic. Amusing that the geologists involved on the Happy McPeakster side didn't know such a basic thing. Irresponsible? Incompetence? Hysterical advocates of doom? You decide, the USGS sure didn't let it slow them down when doing it right.

Check out that "old fields with change in recovery factor making more oil any OPEC member except for Saudi Arabia" angle though, your description needs modified I'm thinking. Hint hint.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    PowerSwitch Forum Index -> Living in the Future All times are GMT + 1 Hour
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... , 48, 49, 50  Next
Page 49 of 50

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group