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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:


So offering people a referendum with the choice of voting for a deal that no one in their right mind would take or voting to remain would be looked upon as acceptable and fair by Labour leave voters, would it?


What is the alternative?

Quote:

I don't think they are quite that stupid and I would feel my intelligence was being insulted.


I don't see what other choice they have. There are no other options left.

Quote:

In those circumstances I would campaign for people to boycott the referendum or spoil the paper by adding "leave no deal" so that it looked like the mockery of justice and democracy that it would be.


Yes, any referendum without no deal on the ballot paper will result in a mass boycott by leaver voters. It will not resolve the problem. However, Labour will argue it wasn't them who created the unresolvable problem.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the coming ge (spectator)...

Quote:
The Conservative path to a majority rests on the public now voting on a Leave/Remain axis rather than a left/right axis. Corbyn allies hope this calculation is wrong. Internal Labour party polling carried out in the Midlands and north of England into whether Brexit moves traditional voters to another party has been encouraging. They found that Labour-leaning Leave voters — nicknamed ‘Dennis Skinner voters’ — struggle with the idea of the Tories and see Johnson as no different to other Tory leaders.

But there is one group more easily turned by Brexit that could be decisive: non-voters, the ones credited for the shock Leave result. On the day of the EU referendum, Labour MPs say they began to get a sense that something was adrift when they saw people who lived in council estates with historically low turnout coming out to vote.

Current polling and prediction systems struggle to take this group in. There is a fear among the rebel alliance that Boris Johnson’s senior aide Dominic Cummings — the campaign director from Vote Leave — has managed to find a way to factor these voters in and is looking at very different electoral modelling to everyone else. That would explain why No. 10 is so bullish. The rebel alliance might be for nothing if it turns out it is fighting the wrong battle
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7235
Location: UK

PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:


So offering people a referendum with the choice of voting for a deal that no one in their right mind would take or voting to remain would be looked upon as acceptable and fair by Labour leave voters, would it?


What is the alternative?

Quote:

I don't think they are quite that stupid and I would feel my intelligence was being insulted.


I don't see what other choice they have. There are no other options left.

Quote:

In those circumstances I would campaign for people to boycott the referendum or spoil the paper by adding "leave no deal" so that it looked like the mockery of justice and democracy that it would be.


Yes, any referendum without no deal on the ballot paper will result in a mass boycott by leaver voters. It will not resolve the problem. However, Labour will argue it wasn't them who created the unresolvable problem.
then they would be lying since they have indeed played their part in creating this problem.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:


So offering people a referendum with the choice of voting for a deal that no one in their right mind would take or voting to remain would be looked upon as acceptable and fair by Labour leave voters, would it?


What is the alternative?

Quote:

I don't think they are quite that stupid and I would feel my intelligence was being insulted.


I don't see what other choice they have. There are no other options left.

Quote:

In those circumstances I would campaign for people to boycott the referendum or spoil the paper by adding "leave no deal" so that it looked like the mockery of justice and democracy that it would be.


Yes, any referendum without no deal on the ballot paper will result in a mass boycott by leaver voters. It will not resolve the problem. However, Labour will argue it wasn't them who created the unresolvable problem.
then they would be lying since they have indeed played their part in creating this problem.


They were not responsible for negotiating May's deal, and that was the showstopping mistake. May tried to negotiate that deal while not having a serious option to walk away with no deal. On top of that, she was negotiating with the main object of keeping both side of her own party on board, instead of reaching out to the bits of the Labour party which she ultimately needed to get a deal through parliament.

The entire responsibility for the giant fuckup that is Brexit lies with the Conservative Party. They called the referendum, they negotiated the deal, they failed to get rid of May even when it was obvious she was totally screwing it up. All Labour has done is try to get rid of the tories.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:
On the coming ge (spectator)...

Quote:
The Conservative path to a majority rests on the public now voting on a Leave/Remain axis rather than a left/right axis. Corbyn allies hope this calculation is wrong. Internal Labour party polling carried out in the Midlands and north of England into whether Brexit moves traditional voters to another party has been encouraging. They found that Labour-leaning Leave voters — nicknamed ‘Dennis Skinner voters’ — struggle with the idea of the Tories and see Johnson as no different to other Tory leaders.



Exactly. Labour leavers simply don't have brexit at the top of their agenda in the way the tory leavers do. There are some leavers who were floating voters in tory-lab marginals anyway, but the ones who have always voted Labour aren't going to vote for Boris Johnson just to get brexit. And they won't vote for Farage either if there is a tory-bxp pact.

Quote:

But there is one group more easily turned by Brexit that could be decisive: non-voters, the ones credited for the shock Leave result. On the day of the EU referendum, Labour MPs say they began to get a sense that something was adrift when they saw people who lived in council estates with historically low turnout coming out to vote.

Current polling and prediction systems struggle to take this group in. There is a fear among the rebel alliance that Boris Johnson’s senior aide Dominic Cummings — the campaign director from Vote Leave — has managed to find a way to factor these voters in and is looking at very different electoral modelling to everyone else. That would explain why No. 10 is so bullish. The rebel alliance might be for nothing if it turns out it is fighting the wrong battle


I agree it is difficult to predict what this group will do, but I don't think it is a large enough group to swing the election result.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:


They were not responsible for negotiating May's deal, and that was the showstopping mistake. May tried to negotiate that deal while not having a serious option to walk away with no deal. On top of that, she was negotiating with the main object of keeping both side of her own party on board, instead of reaching out to the bits of the Labour party which she ultimately needed to get a deal through parliament.

The entire responsibility for the giant fuckup that is Brexit lies with the Conservative Party. They called the referendum, they negotiated the deal, they failed to get rid of May even when it was obvious she was totally screwing it up. All Labour has done is try to get rid of the tories.


Labour's problem with May was not her shitty deal nor the fact she had made no serious preparation for WTO and the reasons are pretty transparent.

(a) any deal negotiated by Labour would haven been little better than some variant of May's and probably worse, from a leavers point of view, since every proposal Labour have made is Brexit in name only at least as much as the existing Withdrawal agreement is.

(b) Labour, in reality, have never had a problem with May's lack of willingness to go for WTO if necessary because they never wanted WTO themselves

In other words, the "divisions" between Labour and the Tories have, from the very start, been largely cosmetic. The real division is between globalists and nationalists and between democrats and antidemocrats and both of these divisions cut across the Left/Right parliamentary divide.

All of which is why your protestations to be primarily pushing a Leftist agenda are so much horseshit. You are, in fact, pushing a globalist, antidemocratic agenda. Yours just happens to be a bourgeois, left of centre, globalist, antidemocratic agenda as opposed to a bourgeois, right of centre, globalist, antidemocratic one.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Yours just happens to be a bourgeois, left of centre, globalist, antidemocratic agenda as opposed to a bourgeois, right of centre, globalist, antidemocratic one.


Nope. My agenda is absolutely anti-globalist.

Democracy is pretty much doomed though.

And as for Labour, they were in opposition the entire time. They are not responsible for this mess.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I disagree there UE.

Labour became closer to the tories than 2 cheeks of an rse when Tony liar arrived. In fact the 4 horsemen are: the 2 big parties; the MS media who have limited any political direction; the city+whitehall who are really both the same tumour on Britain.

Corbyn has been a welcome change, but has been totally ineffective and is clueless about the majority of British problems. If he has got rid of some torylabour MPs, that is his achievement.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

fuzzy wrote:
I disagree there UE.

Labour became closer to the tories than 2 cheeks of an rse when Tony liar arrived. In fact the 4 horsemen are: the 2 big parties; the MS media who have limited any political direction; the city+whitehall who are really both the same tumour on Britain.

Corbyn has been a welcome change, but has been totally ineffective and is clueless about the majority of British problems. If he has got rid of some torylabour MPs, that is his achievement.


OK, you are talking about a bigger perspective "mess" than just Brexit. I don't disagree about that.

I was actually reasonably happy with New Labour until the Iraq War, but it was Gordon Brown's massive bank bailout I will never forgive them for.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LJ....you won't like this, but I am now very confident that brexit is dead. I just can't see a path that leads anywhere but revoke.

Johnson is going to try to get a version of May's deal through parliament, with an NI-only backstop, but I don't think he's got the numbers to do it. Too many MPs think they can stop brexit entirely now, and Labour don't want to give Johnson the chance to fight an election immediately after a successful brexit.

I think he'll be forced to choose between asking for an extension (which will be a long one), or he'll resign and a temporary government will ask for that extension. Either way there will be an election in late November or early December.

I don't believe that the tories will do a pact with the brexit party. I don't think they will be able to agree on policy (tories won't want to commit to no deal), nor will they be able to agree on which seats to allocate to the brexit party, and the tories will fear looking weak and vulnerable to accusations that Farage will end up as puppetmaster.

They won't win. Not on a no-deal platform. There's just not enough voters willing to vote tory in those circumstances. And that means we are heading towards a minority Labour government with a C&S agreement with the SNP. Which means there is going to be a second brexit referendum, between revoke and some version of May's WA. This will be boycotted by millions of leave voters, but article 50 will be revoked nevertheless.

This will leave us with about 15 million extremely angry leave voters, who will refuse to accept the legitimacy of the second referendum. There will also be a second Scottish independence referendum, which the nationalists will lose, not least because of fears about a Scottish Border Problem.

I think this will have a major destabilising effect on the EU in the longer term. The UK may end up being instrumental in breaking the EU from inside, by repeatedly using its veto to cause trouble and generally exacting retribution by any means possible, especially on the Irish.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
............They were not responsible for negotiating May's deal, and that was the showstopping mistake. May tried to negotiate that deal while not having a serious option to walk away with no deal.


They weren't responsible for negotiating May's deal but they were responsible for the outcome as they were continually undermining May and conniving with the EU in order to stop Brexit. As LJ has said, treacherous! May didn't have the option of walking away because of Labour reneging on their election promise to respect the referendum result. It was highly unlikely that the UK would have got a deal that was worth having because the EU didn't want us leaving. Our only bargaining point was walking away and Labour effectively scotched that. Anyone who can't see that is either blind or stupid.

Quote:
On top of that, she was negotiating with the main object of keeping both side of her own party on board, instead of reaching out to the bits of the Labour party which she ultimately needed to get a deal through parliament.


Labour has been in exactly the same position and still is. And the Remainers of all parties are unreachable. They will not brook any form of leave.

Quote:
The entire responsibility for the giant fuckup that is Brexit lies with the Conservative Party. They called the referendum, they negotiated the deal, they failed to get rid of May even when it was obvious she was totally screwing it up. All Labour has done is try to get rid of the Tories.


At least the Tories gave us a chance to vote on the EU after god knows how many treaties have been signed taking us further and further into the stagnant quagmire that is the EU. At least Europe got to vote, and vote again if they got it wrong the first time, on Maastricht, but the Tories denied us and Labour denied us a vote on Lisbon. The giant fuckup is caused by antidemocratic Remainers. We could have been out years ago and the economy could have been well on the way to recovery by now but for treacherous Remainer conniving to keep us in.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting article in the Mail. Looks like the EU are starting to realise that these continual extensions which they agree to only further the chaos and allow parliament not to make any actual decision on Brexit.

Eurointelligence have always said that it is EU best interests to impose a hard deadline on parliament.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7455769/Eurocrats-slam-Jeremy-Corbyns-mad-Brexit-policy.html

Quote:
EU officials are reportedly 'tearing their hair out' over where Labour has ended up on Brexit and fear that if Mr Corbyn becomes prime minister the uncertainty over the UK's departure from the bloc will continue.

Sources suggested the EU had 'made mistakes' by engaging with Labour and meeting Mr Corbyn and other senior figures like shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer for formal talks.

Meanwhile, there is also regret on the continent over the willingness to agree to Brexit delays because they provided MPs with a 'get out of jail free card' which allowed them to reject Theresa May's deal safe in the knowledge the EU would pick up the pieces.

Diplomats also believe it was ill-advised for European leaders to have met with leading figures in the Remain campaign like Tony Blair because it suggested that Brexit could be cancelled and may have stopped MPs from taking Mrs May's deal seriously.


Also very tentative signs that the DUP are softening on the backstop.

Quote:
DUP opens up to compromise

Is the DUP softening its stance on the backstop? As no-deal Brexit gets closer, even hardcore backstop defenders in Northern Ireland are softening their posturing. A last-minute deal is possible. Angela Merkel said yesterday that a deal can be done even on the last day before the deadline expires. No one wants a hard Brexit.

The Tories and the DUP are currently working on a compromise. The Northern Ireland-only backstop is still a no-go for the DUP. But its leader, Arlene Foster, is now talking about a sensible deal, which the Irish Times interpreted as a move into "I can’t believe it’s not the backstop" territory.

The pressure is on. A UK government paper assessing hard Brexit was released on Wednesday after a parliament vote demanding its publication. The report warned that the idea of no border checks would be unsustainable in the long run, and that the automatic application of tariffs and regulatory requirements would drive Northern Irish companies out of business or force them to relocate. Economic disruption and job losses are likely to cause civil disobedience and road blockages near the border.

Nigel Dodds told BBC News that there could be arrangements for the benefit of Northern Ireland, the Republic and the EU. He added that any such arrangements would require the assent of the Northern Ireland assembly. But the assembly has been suspended for years. We agree that a Northern-Irish backstop is the way to go, but there are formidable obstacles, which is why Theresa May chose not to pursue this option, and why the EU accepted the ill-fated all-UK backstop solution instead.

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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
............They were not responsible for negotiating May's deal, and that was the showstopping mistake. May tried to negotiate that deal while not having a serious option to walk away with no deal.


They weren't responsible for negotiating May's deal but they were responsible for the outcome as they were continually undermining May and conniving with the EU in order to stop Brexit. As LJ has said, treacherous! May didn't have the option of walking away because of Labour reneging on their election promise to respect the referendum result. It was highly unlikely that the UK would have got a deal that was worth having because the EU didn't want us leaving. Our only bargaining point was walking away and Labour effectively scotched that. Anyone who can't see that is either blind or stupid.


But Labour were the opposition, and they never agreed to back no deal. May was behaving as if she had a comfortable majority, but she didn't. When she lost her majority completely, her only way out was to do some sort of deal with Labour about what sort of brexit she would go for. This would have enabled her to deliver brexit, but only at the price of ripping the tory party apart.

Quote:

Quote:
On top of that, she was negotiating with the main object of keeping both side of her own party on board, instead of reaching out to the bits of the Labour party which she ultimately needed to get a deal through parliament.


Labour has been in exactly the same position and still is. And the Remainers of all parties are unreachable. They will not brook any form of leave.


Yes, but Labour weren't in power and didn't call the referendum. May needed to build a consensus between Labour and Tory leave MPs.

Quote:

At least the Tories gave us a chance to vote on the EU after god knows how many treaties have been signed taking us further and further into the stagnant quagmire that is the EU. At least Europe got to vote, and vote again if they got it wrong the first time, on Maastricht, but the Tories denied us and Labour denied us a vote on Lisbon. The giant fuckup is caused by antidemocratic Remainers. We could have been out years ago and the economy could have been well on the way to recovery by now but for treacherous Remainer conniving to keep us in.


I don't disagree with your general sentiment. The majority of leave voters of all sorts will reject the legitimacy of a second referendum that cancels brexit.
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Lord Beria3



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the interesting patterns is that views within the UK and EU tend to diverge at the same time on the prospects on Brexit.

Right now UK focused commentators, like UE, are pessimistic about the prospects of Brexit.

Yet the continent seems to have accepted Brexit and that Britain will never be a full time european.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/12/exclusive-juncker-tells-euronews-portfolio-title-protecting-our-european-way-of-life-must

Also the DM article above. They just want Brexit done.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

2nd ref thought experiment: spoiled ballots beats "credible leave option".

Imagine the following scenario...

A50 extension, general election, tories lose. Minority Lab govt has to hold a referendum between revoking and a slightly tweaked version of May's deal. Until tonight, I had thought that a referendum of this sort would be boycotted by large numbers of leave voters, and so revoke would win on a much-reduced turnout. But there would be millions of people who believe the referendum should not be held at all, or at the very least that no deal had to be on the ballot paper, given the scale of the three Commons defeats of May's deal.

Since almost nobody wants May's deal, the result would be a forgone conclusion. In a binary referendum between those two options, revoke wins easily. So let's imagine the brexiteers leading the official leave campaign team gets blown out of the water during the campaign by an unofficial group, led by Farage or Cummings, trying to get people to spoil their ballot papers. The intention would be to unite supporters of no deal, people who think it is fundamentally wrong to hold a second referendum, and anyone else who wanted to stick two fingers up at the whole political establishment.

The result is:

Revoke: 48%

Crappy deal: 12%

Spoiled ballot papers: 40%

What happens next?
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