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Heat watch
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
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Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This summers heatwave is reported to have resulted in about 1,500 excess deaths in France.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49628275
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I always wonder how they calculate and what precisely they mean by "excess" deaths
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adam2
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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AFAIK the calculation is done by comparing the number of deaths with those occurring in the same period in years without exceptional heat.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It might be worth comparing the period immediately following a heat wave to check if the death rate falls below the average for previous years. In other words, I am wondering if the vast majority of the people who died as a consequence of the heat wave were people who were already on death's door and would have died sometime in the near future anyway. If true, this would mean their deaths would drop out of the average death rate number for the near future equal to the rise in the number occurring during the heat wave.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In Russia, exceptionally mild weather is reported for the time of year.
Artificial snow is being applied to some areas to give a traditional new year atmosphere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50945383
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
Posts: 1336
Location: The Marches, UK

PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was told it was 16C in Scotland last night - very odd.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50941114
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 6366
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
It might be worth comparing the period immediately following a heat wave to check if the death rate falls below the average for previous years. In other words, I am wondering if the vast majority of the people who died as a consequence of the heat wave were people who were already on death's door and would have died sometime in the near future anyway. If true, this would mean their deaths would drop out of the average death rate number for the near future equal to the rise in the number occurring during the heat wave.

Interesting point. I think that also applies to disasters like the hurricane in Puerto Rico where they are arguing about how many lives were "lost" due to the storm and slow emergency response work.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
In Russia, exceptionally mild weather is reported for the time of year.
Artificial snow is being applied to some areas to give a traditional new year atmosphere.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50945383


So they are further contributing to the cause of the mild weather by using fossil fuelled energy to make snow to make the place look nice!!
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4129

PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Forecast for Aberdeen at 1800 on Tuesday is 10”C. A bit different to a few years ago when temperatures were so lo for so long with bad conditions that heating oil was more expensive than fuel at the garages. Assuming you could get there. All the large heating oil suppliers had shut down as delivering was dangerous, and only the very small ones were prepared o take the risk.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It depends on which loop of the ever more meandering jet stream we are in at any one time woodburner as to whether we get Arctic ice, Atlantic wetness, Russian bonechill or Saharan heat. We are fortunate to have Saharan heat at the moment.
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