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Why is it So Often “Sooner than Predicted”?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10444
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
The population"bomb" is going to create a food crisis all by itself with or with out climate change. How will we sort out cause and effect and direct out efforts where most useful.


The Population Bomb was supposed to have gone off in the 1970's. And yet here we all are.


Now I remember why you've been repeatedly banned from this forum.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4126

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why should RGR be banned from the forum? Is it because of the answers that can’t be questioned? Or is it because other posters have low confidence levels? Given the trivial few who still post reqularly, banning one removes a significant percentage.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
Why should RGR be banned from the forum? Is it because of the answers that can’t be questioned? Or is it because other posters have low confidence levels? Given the trivial few who still post reqularly, banning one removes a significant percentage.


I was not calling for him to be re-banned.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 507
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
The population"bomb" is going to create a food crisis all by itself with or with out climate change. How will we sort out cause and effect and direct out efforts where most useful.


The Population Bomb was supposed to have gone off in the 1970's. And yet here we all are.


Now I remember why you've been repeatedly banned from this forum.


Why? For noticing that doom, in many forms and stripes, has been claimed for quite some time now?

You weren't scared when you read the Population Bomb? If memory serves, it singled out England as one of those places that would suffer mass starvation. Did it? And is knowing this a reason for getting rid of us who do?
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4126

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
woodburner wrote:
Why should RGR be banned from the forum? Is it because of the answers that can’t be questioned? Or is it because other posters have low confidence levels? Given the trivial few who still post reqularly, banning one removes a significant percentage.


I was not calling for him to be re-banned.


I did not intend to suggest you were, but what was a crime, so heinous, that warrants banning from a forum such as PS. Was it because many members were “becoming tired of RGR’s views”?

Similar to “bringing the orginisation into disrepute”

A list of the disreputables they tried to ban.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7548
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
The population"bomb" is going to create a food crisis all by itself with or with out climate change. How will we sort out cause and effect and direct out efforts where most useful.


The Population Bomb was supposed to have gone off in the 1970's. And yet here we all are.


Now I remember why you've been repeatedly banned from this forum.


Why? For noticing that doom, in many forms and stripes, has been claimed for quite some time now?

You weren't scared when you read the Population Bomb? If memory serves, it singled out England as one of those places that would suffer mass starvation. Did it? And is knowing this a reason for getting rid of us who do?
In the event of significant interruptions to international supply chains, this country would be starving within a month as things stand
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10444
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
woodburner wrote:
Why should RGR be banned from the forum? Is it because of the answers that can’t be questioned? Or is it because other posters have low confidence levels? Given the trivial few who still post reqularly, banning one removes a significant percentage.


I was not calling for him to be re-banned.


I did not intend to suggest you were, but what was a crime, so heinous, that warrants banning from a forum such as PS. Was it because many members were “becoming tired of RGR’s views”?

Similar to “bringing the orginisation into disrepute”

A list of the disreputables they tried to ban.


There are certain things which are questioned/doubted widely in "normal society", even though there is no justification for doubting them. These include climate change and overpopulation. On a forum dedicated to the consequences of unsustainability, there is nothing to be gained by being tolerant of this sort of bogus skepticism.

However, given that we live in a world where forums are becoming an endangered species, and the community here is so small, there isn't much point in actually banning anybody at all anymore, apart from bots and commercial spammers.
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vtsnowedin



Joined: 07 Jan 2011
Posts: 5573
Location: New England ,Chelsea Vermont

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes forums are on the decline so best to just ignore those you might want to ban.
Back to the "population bomb". Like peak oil the timing of the predicted crisis was decades off but that does not remove the possibility of the prediction of doom coming true in it's own time. Through the "green revolution" and massive use of fossil fuel derived fertilizers and pesticides (both herbicides and insecticides) we have managed to double and even triple crop yields and have managed to feed seven billion people up to this point with a smaller percentage of people being under nourished then was common back in the 1960s.
That does not mean we will be able to increase crop yields yet again as the population continues to grow to it's predicted peak. If and when Peak oil actually hits we will become very aware of how much fossil fuel is tied up in every loaf of bread and pound of meat we consume and billions of the poorest people in the world now crowded into urban areas will not have the money to buy sufficient food nor have the land to grow their own.
In short the present immigration crisis in Europe and North America is just a beginning that will get much worse before it is over.
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kenneal - lagger
Site Admin


Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11529
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I fully agree with VT above and would add that the more extreme climate events and changing weather patterns that are predicted with global warming and the sea level rise will gradually reduce world food production.

As for increasing crop yields again, that is unlikely as we seem to have plateaued on increases at the moment and the way that pesticides are becoming ineffective (having to mix Roundup with 2,4D for example) does not bode well for crop production given that we have killed off many of the predator species of insects for both plants and insects.

GM crops have been developed to work with pesticides rather than to increase crop yeilds and there are reports that yeilds of GM crops are lower than the alternatives.

Natural fertility levels are dropping as carbon is stripped fromt he soil and top soil and soil chemicals are being washed away to sea, causing problems for fish and the fishermen who rely no them for trade and food.

All in all there are problems coming especially for a nation that imports 50% of its food already and is fixated on high immigration to keep economic growth going.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 507
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
Yes forums are on the decline so best to just ignore those you might want to ban.
Back to the "population bomb". Like peak oil the timing of the predicted crisis was decades off but that does not remove the possibility of the prediction of doom coming true in it's own time.


That's a back pedal and you know it. Peak oil will one day happen, it is axiomatic, but I was banned for knowing in advance that the current claims of peak were a crock. Not for fully admitting that there would be a peak within some decades or another, but for denying it (and worse yet being right) in the present, circa 2008-2010.

Of course the world ends. But people didn't claim it would end "some day far off in the future", they play the scare the hell out of them by pretending it will happen tomorrow game.

And suckers fall for it every time. Be it the Population Bomb in the 70's, the world running out of oil by the end of the 1980's, Colin declaring global peak oil in 1990, followed by yet more claims 15 years later, and NONE of it was predicated on "gee I might be off by a quarter century or so". And the reason WHY is because unless it's all scary and in your face, DOOMERS DON'T CARE. Because it's about DOOM, not the WHY, but certainly the WHEN.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It does help to have a date so that people can work towards mitigating the problem. It certainly helped with Y2K and computers.

If people had worked towards mitigating Peak Oil we would be in a better place now using less oil. Who knows, the oilcos might be investing in alternative/renewable energy instead of scavenging every last bit of oil from under the earth and e in a better place long term.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 4126

PostPosted: Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Er, but nothing happened with Y2K and computers. I did absolutely nothing to change my computers, and F all happened. It was another non-event, just as “we are all going to die from some horrible disease if we don’t get vaccinated” scaremongering will be a non event. Howerer, I think damage caused by 5g might be an event.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
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Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
Er, but nothing happened with Y2K and computers. I did absolutely nothing to change my computers, and F all happened. It was another non-event, just as “we are all going to die from some horrible disease if we don’t get vaccinated” scaremongering will be a non event. Howerer, I think damage caused by 5g might be an event.


Because people did things in the background to negate the problems or have I been the victim of a conspiracy theory?
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep Very Happy Though wikipedia will read slightly differently, as it supports the official narrative.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 507
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sat Aug 24, 2019 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:

If people had worked towards mitigating Peak Oil we would be in a better place now using less oil.


It is better, oil wise. I use electricity to motor around on 4 wheels nowadays, I joined the EV in their legions and haven't much cared about the cost of non-replacement, far more valuable as chemical feedstock fuels ever since.

EVs were given to the world because of the high prices back when the peak oil fear meme was going on, so at least the prices from the scare had an expected effect.

kenneal-lagger wrote:

Who knows, the oilcos might be investing in alternative/renewable energy instead of scavenging every last bit of oil from under the earth and e in a better place long term.


Who knows, consumers might make better choices and the OilCos can go out of business. Peak demand is being called as right around the corner, and that is going to cause some folks some where to most certainly go out of business. And the NOCs? Anyone want to bet that with progressively lower oil demand that the consequences we can see in Venezuela will be repeated elsewhere?
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