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Buy more gold?
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7085
Location: UK

PostPosted: Mon Dec 31, 2018 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vtsnowedin wrote:
In America if ten people were in the room with five armed the other five would probably be their wives and children and the armed would shoot the lock open.
It wasn't supposed to be literal example V. You have heard of metaphor...right?

Or were you just virtue signalling there V?
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RenewableCandy



Joined: 12 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2019 11:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:

Environmentalists think that they can change the world by tinkering around the edges of the economy without changing the banking system.

HAH! Not this one Very Happy
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RenewableCandy wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:

Environmentalists think that they can change the world by tinkering around the edges of the economy without changing the banking system.

HAH! Not this one Very Happy


Unfortunately there aren't too many of us holistic thinkers around, Candy.
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RenewableCandy



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PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frankly, more people need to read "The Price of Time"! But then I would say that...
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 19, 2019 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's a tip at the end of this interesting article from Capital and Conflict

Quote:
“We’re all Greek now”
Nick O’Connor

“But what about the pension funds?” the man across the table asked me.

We were having dinner in a restaurant overlooking the Thames, a view tarnished only by the scaffolding cocooning Westminster.

I had just outlined my theory that as Cold War II intensifies and China’s threat to the US becomes ever more significant, the US government will turn to the printing presses. In order to outspend China on defence and remain the world’s only superpower while already tens of trillions of pounds in debt, the Federal Reserve will be forced to directly finance the US government.

This, in my view would lead to extensive increases in inflation, which would indirectly solve the US government’s massive debt problem. At the same time, domestic discontent (or “populism”) would be quenched by the fear of a foreign enemy and by the boom in employment in the domestic defence industry which the printed money would be poured into.

But the gentleman across the table, a former hedge fund manager, had a point. How would the US government deal with the crisis this would create for pension funds? They own huge amounts of bonds which have a fixed income – the roaring inflation would destroy their returns. In the classic “60% bonds, 40% stocks” model, pensioners would take a serious hit to the largest portion of their retirement savings, and then what would the retiring generation have to live on? And how would the ruling administration in the US remain in power without subsidising them?

I didn’t have much of an answer to his question, other than that Cold War II will have few winners and somebody will have to pick up the tab once it’s over. Maybe it’ll be the retiring boomers; the millennials (soon to become a dominating force at the ballot box and in government) sure as hell won’t want to pay for it.

But in my view, someone will – and it’s coming…

Sino-German Cyberwar
We wrote yesterday of how China has been following the British Empire’s playbook, seeking to control international shipping lanes to control global trade, and thus the world. Its expansion is not limited to the physical ocean however, but to the digital ocean too.

The internet is an ocean of data, across which valuable information, or “goods” are transferred. The infrastructure, or “shipping lanes” of this ocean is the internet’s infrastructure, laid and controlled by telecoms companies. The strategic significance of these “digital shipping lanes” is only recently being appreciated, and now Germany is looking to defend its own from China. From the Financial Times:

Germany has joined its US and British allies in moving to prevent Huawei from supplying its next-generation mobile phone network, bowing to pressure from Washington to block the Chinese maker of telecoms equipment over espionage fears…

A statement from the German economics ministry said security of the future 5G network and the safety of products offered by telecoms suppliers was “highly relevant”. The government would be “guided” by such concerns in its buildout of the network…

Huawei equipment is already largely banned from US government systems and contractors. In November the UK, which is the Chinese group’s oldest European market, demanded fixes the company must make to operate in the country…

China’s ambassador to Canada warned on Thursday that there would “certainly be repercussions” if Huawei was blocked from participating in building the country’s 5G network…

The EU is also increasingly concerned about Huawei. Andrus Ansip, the top Brussels official on tech policy, recently warned that Chinese groups could be ordered by Beijing’s intelligence services to build back doors into their systems…


Germany’s alignment in Cold War II will be further revealed when it decides which fighter planes it’ll buy to replace its ageing Tornado fleet. Will it turn to the US for the pricey F-35 or will it go for the Eurofighter to keep Europe’s defence industry flush with cash? The eurozone industrial base could certainly use the money right now… but then, if it goes for the cheaper Eurofighter it’ll only strengthen Donald Trump’s convictions that the European countries aren’t pulling their weight when it comes to defence spending. Let’s watch.

As the evening drew to a close, and having shared my thesis for what the future holds, I asked my dinner guest, who with decades of experience in finance has a great eye for spotting risk.

When I get to his age, he assured me, “You know what you don’t know”, and he gave no description of how future events would unfold. He only highlighted the dangers he sees on the horizon and commented that there’s only one thing he knows and trusts today – gold bars.

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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My small stash of gold is now worth more than I paid for it in 2016. It peaked today at £1140 per ounce before dropping to around £1125. I would have made just over £100 per ounce profit if I sold. Luckily I'm not in it for the profit.
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adam2
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PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
My small stash of gold is now worth more than I paid for it in 2016. It peaked today at £1140 per ounce before dropping to around £1125. I would have made just over £100 per ounce profit if I sold. Luckily I'm not in it for the profit.


Agree.
IMO, gold should be considered as a disaster prep or as insurance against an unknown future.
NEVER as an investment. The value of gold relative to paper money can go up or down. It carries the small but real risk of loss or theft.
It pays no income or dividend.

Still worth considering as gold has always retained significant value in previous disasters.
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boisdevie



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PostPosted: Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
My small stash of gold is now worth more than I paid for it in 2016. It peaked today at £1140 per ounce before dropping to around £1125. I would have made just over £100 per ounce profit if I sold. Luckily I'm not in it for the profit.


If I cash in my gold now I would make about 10% profit in two years. I am keeping hold of mine too.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
My small stash of gold is now worth more than I paid for it in 2016. It peaked today at £1140 per ounce before dropping to around £1125. I would have made just over £100 per ounce profit if I sold. Luckily I'm not in it for the profit.


If I cash in my gold now I would make about 10% profit in two years. I am keeping hold of mine too.


Sounds like you bought at the height of the market in 2016/7 like I did, B!
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boisdevie



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PostPosted: Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
boisdevie wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:
My small stash of gold is now worth more than I paid for it in 2016. It peaked today at £1140 per ounce before dropping to around £1125. I would have made just over £100 per ounce profit if I sold. Luckily I'm not in it for the profit.


If I cash in my gold now I would make about 10% profit in two years. I am keeping hold of mine too.


Sounds like you bought at the height of the market in 2016/7 like I did, B!


Possibly but I'm in it for the long term. I have 3k in precious metals and given bank savings rates and the overpriced nature of the stock market it seems like a prudent choice to me.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agreed, B. Same position as me.
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fuzzy



Joined: 29 Nov 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As long as you guys know a metal dealer who will always buy it. Being rural, I think I would struggle and I can store some goods instead.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When we come to use our gold as currency I don't think that there will be many "metal dealers" around to sell to. It will just be ordinary people looking for a means of exchange that can be trusted. It will probably take some time to get to that state so I have a small quantity of cash as well.
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fuzzy



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PostPosted: Sat Jul 13, 2019 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not practical for daily exchange. Maybe as a wealth store to hedge inflation or to flee a war zone.

Do you own acid for metal testing? How would you trade them? I would only store certified coins that are always a large value.
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PowerswitchClive



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PostPosted: Sun Jul 28, 2019 11:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Buy more gold? Reply with quote

boisdevie wrote:
I have perhaps £2000 in a bank account that I probably don't need. Current rates of interest are rubbish and I was wondering what the consensus was about buying some gold, especially in the run up to Brexit next spring.
Thoughts?


So Boisdevie, if you had ignored the suggestions and gone out and bought your £2000 worth of gold, you would have made £390 since you first asked your question!
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