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Brexit process
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Blue Peter



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 1939
Location: Milton Keynes

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 12:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clv101 wrote:
Little John wrote:
Resigned

Gone by June 7th


About time. Pretty much whatever your political views May's destined to go down as one of our worst leaders in history.


Ian Dunt has her down as 2nd worst:

https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2019/05/24/may-ends-her-premiership-as-she-started-it-with-the-greatest

which is probably fair,


Peter.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7341
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


I suspect that the political class WILL be looking for a middle ground that they can call leaving, but that to me or to you will like remaining.

"We will have to stay in the customs union"
"Free movement of people is sacrosanct"
"We should remain subject to EU law"
"We will of course have to pay into the EU budget"
"Spain still needs access to fishing grounds"
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is any arrangement with the EU which future governments are democratically unable to change

I personally could live with any number of deals involving any aspect of those arrangement, being struck just so long as they do not interfere with the capacity of the British people to vote in a party that stood on a ticket of changing those arrangements.

It's called nation state democracy.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever else is true, I think it must now be acknowledged that Nigel Farage is the most important political figure in this country since Margaret Thatcher.

He hes been directly instrumental in the scalps of two Tory leaders and may yet be instrumental in the scalp of a Labour Leader.

Firstly, Farage's UKIP put Cameron under massive pressure which resulted in Cameron calling for a referendum on continued EU membership in the hope of heading off the risk from UKIP. His massive miscalculation resulted in Leave winning the referendum and Cameron's subsequent resignation.

1-0 to Farage.

Secondly, May's persistent betrayal and prevarications vis a vis the enactment of A50 alongside UKIP's post-Farage tack to the loony right has led, inevitably, to the creation of the Brexit party which, in the space of just a few weeks, on an explicit ticket of Leaving the EU with or without a deal, has resulted in the Tories being massacred in the Euro elections. In turn, leading to May's immediate resignation.

2-0 to Farage.

Corbyn's Labour party, meanwhile, is going the same way as the Tory party. It's just in slightly slower motion, that's all. However, we can expect that to pick up speed once Labour's dreadful EU election results come in on Sunday.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10096
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


I suspect that the political class WILL be looking for a middle ground that they can call leaving, but that to me or to you will like remaining.

"We will have to stay in the customs union"
"Free movement of people is sacrosanct"
"We should remain subject to EU law"
"We will of course have to pay into the EU budget"
"Spain still needs access to fishing grounds"


They can look all they like, all they will find is a desolate wasteland.

There's only two ways this can end now. One is via a no deal brexit forced through against the will of parliament, possibly by ending this parliament and not starting another one until the clock times out. While this is not impossible, the political consequences would be indescribably severe. The other is a general election, followed by a Lab/LD/SNP coalition which holds a second referendum, which remain narrowly wins.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10096
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:


Corbyn's Labour party, meanwhile, is going the same way as the Tory party. It's just in slightly slower motion, that's all. However, we can expect that to pick up speed once Labour's dreadful EU election results come in on Sunday.


There is no reason to believe this. Labour is on course to come second in these elections, while the tories might just get wiped out completely in terms of seats and come 5th or 6th in terms of votes.

Unlike the tories, Labour is able to preserve its core by remaining perched on the fence. It is the one luxury of not being in power. If Labour had been in power when brexit had to be delivered, then they might be facing an existential threat. But they aren't.

Look at my own constituency. Tories hold it by 400 votes, nobody else anywhere close. But unlike Peterborough, which is likely to be taken by Farage on June 6th, I'd bet on Labour taking Hastings even though their vote will drop substantially, because the Brexit Party will go from 0 to 15000, three quarters of which will come from the tories.
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clv101
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Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 8135

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
There is no middle ground.

One side has to lose


Look at the big picture, all sides lose, there aren't winners. We're just characters the collapse of the world's first global civilisation.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We all know industrial civilization is going down the shitter. Meanwhile, on Brexit, one side must win and one side must lose.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:


Corbyn's Labour party, meanwhile, is going the same way as the Tory party. It's just in slightly slower motion, that's all. However, we can expect that to pick up speed once Labour's dreadful EU election results come in on Sunday.


There is no reason to believe this. Labour is on course to come second in these elections, while the tories might just get wiped out completely in terms of seats and come 5th or 6th in terms of votes.

Unlike the tories, Labour is able to preserve its core by remaining perched on the fence. It is the one luxury of not being in power. If Labour had been in power when brexit had to be delivered, then they might be facing an existential threat. But they aren't.

Look at my own constituency. Tories hold it by 400 votes, nobody else anywhere close. But unlike Peterborough, which is likely to be taken by Farage on June 6th, I'd bet on Labour taking Hastings even though their vote will drop substantially, because the Brexit Party will go from 0 to 15000, three quarters of which will come from the tories.
I'd save my optimism until after the EU election results came in I was you
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So, apparently, a report has just been published which suggests that a committed no deal Brexiteer PM could take the UK out of the EU on WTO and parliament could do nothing about it legally. The reason being all of the amendments to the withdrawal bill, such as, for example, Cooper's critical amendment, all relate to the withdrawal bill itself. If that is discarded, parliament has no leverage as the clock ticks down.

Parliament would, under such circumstances no doubt apply as much political pressure as possible in the form of motions etc. But, legally, they would be worthless.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7065315/New-Brexiteer-PM-wants-Britain-EU-No-Deal-stopped-Parliament.html
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PS_RalphW



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
Posts: 5570
Location: Cambridge

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A vote of no confidence would be passed, bringing the government down. However, that in itself would not stop the no deal exit.

It would be a major constitutional crisis. As if we didn't have one already...
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PS_RalphW wrote:
A vote of no confidence would be passed, bringing the government down. However, that in itself would not stop the no deal exit.

It would be a major constitutional crisis. As if we didn't have one already...
No it would not be a constitutional crisis. That's is precisely what it would not be.

A constitutional crisis, whereby MP's have tried to thwart a democratic mandate and a government's legislative timetable via a Speaker of the Commons who is prepared to play fast and loose with centuries of parliamentary precedent, is what we have just had.

Having said all of that, I cannot say I am in any way sorry that Parliament threw May's shitty deal out.
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cubes



Joined: 10 Jun 2008
Posts: 691
Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 6:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You do realise that this "parliamentary precedent" was just previous speakers making it up as they went along don't you?

So, TM is gone, which political"heavyweight" (rofl) do we get next? I can see a brexiteer pm whistle until 31 Oct and let us drop out on the worst possible terms (WTO) as the most likely course at the moment.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 7180
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 7:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cubes wrote:
You do realise that this "parliamentary precedent" was just previous speakers making it up as they went along don't you?

So, TM is gone, which political"heavyweight" (rofl) do we get next? I can see a brexiteer pm whistle until 31 Oct and let us drop out on the worst possible terms (WTO) as the most likely course at the moment.
So, you think WTO represents worse terms than May's deal do you?
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 10096
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Fri May 24, 2019 7:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
So, apparently, a report has just been published which suggests that a committed no deal Brexiteer PM could take the UK out of the EU on WTO and parliament could do nothing about it legally. The reason being all of the amendments to the withdrawal bill, such as, for example, Cooper's critical amendment, all relate to the withdrawal bill itself. If that is discarded, parliament has no leverage as the clock ticks down.

Parliament would, under such circumstances no doubt apply as much political pressure as possible in the form of motions etc. But, legally, they would be worthless.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7065315/New-Brexiteer-PM-wants-Britain-EU-No-Deal-stopped-Parliament.html


I don't know whether or not this is true. It might be. Because of the unwritten and flexible nature of our constitution, I wouldn't be surprised if the speaker and the majority in parliament find a way to take control. I have seen it claimed elsewhere that parliament and the speaker could even directly revoke article 50 without the government's approval.

But if it is indeed true, and this is what May's replacement does, then the country would be left completely ungovernable. They would not be able to get any legislation passed, at a time when a lot of controversial legislation would be urgently required. So there would have to be an immediate general election.

Either way, this ride is about to get a lot wilder.
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