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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 74
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 8:06 am    Post subject: Hello again Reply with quote

Just thought I would drop by and say hello again. It has been awhile and I realize that this post and my new account might be erased 10 seconds after I post this, but it seemed reasonable to at least make the attempt after all these years.
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adam2
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Joined: 02 Jul 2007
Posts: 7129
Location: North Somerset

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not yet deleted.
Differing points of view are welcome.
What is NOT WELCOME will be any future attempt to take numerous threads off topic by endlessly repeating any particular viewpoint, especially when such viewpoints are not even relevant to the topic title.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 74
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2019 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

adam2 wrote:
Not yet deleted.
Differing points of view are welcome.
What is NOT WELCOME will be any future attempt to take numerous threads off topic by endlessly repeating any particular viewpoint, especially when such viewpoints are not even relevant to the topic title.


So this forum has managed to moderator out thread drift? Very Happy

Your terms sound completely reasonable.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
Posts: 2209
Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 8:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hi RGR, I hope you are well.

It will be interesting to have a look at some older posts and see how predictions compare with todays reality.

I suspect that some of your predictions may have proven accurate, especially the views that economics rather than geology would prove to be the limiting factors.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 74
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
Hi RGR, I hope you are well.

It will be interesting to have a look at some older posts and see how predictions compare with todays reality.


Indeed. However, one of the things I was often accused of was not answering predictions questions in quite the way expected. This was then viewed as an evasive answer, rather than what I thought it was, which was an appropriate answer within the overall context.


Catweazle wrote:

I suspect that some of your predictions may have proven accurate, especially the views that economics rather than geology would prove to be the limiting factors.


I didn't predict much, although I did mention often that considering the number of times other peak oil claims had come and gone, that counting your chickens early might have given a hint as to what was to come to those who tried.

In the intervening years since I was mostly banished from internet forums, I have accumulated quite acquired a far more advanced system approach to integration of geology, engineering/technology and economics into exactly how one would go about doing peak oil/demand/production forecasts and whatnot.
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Catweazle



Joined: 17 Feb 2008
Posts: 2209
Location: Little England, over the hills

PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2019 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking back will be amusing, but probably not very useful. Things have moved on since then.

Do you believe that large scale use of fossil fuel is causing major damage to the planet ? Or is it possible that the recent drives towards zero emissions and electric vehicles are actually designed to wean us off oil gently, avoiding a rapid crash ?
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 74
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Catweazle wrote:
Looking back will be amusing, but probably not very useful. Things have moved on since then.


Indeed. I was sort of curious about the question you asked myself, a year or three back. Over at po.com I ran into only 2 interesting comments I had made once upon a time. Both were circa 2006 or so, one was that if peak oil arrived, it would most likely look like the energy crisis of the 1970s, recession/stagflation, that kind of thing, rather than the doom being presented at the time, now migrated to climate change. And the other was that resource plays were not to be underestimated, and I referenced the Barnett.

I was heavily involved and exclusively working in the resource plays back then, on several levels. I jumped over into international field level studies about 5 years later.

Catweazle wrote:

Do you believe that large scale use of fossil fuel is causing major damage to the planet ?


Define "damage". Combusting fossil fuels creates CO2. We do that alot, and don't appear to mind the consequences. Extracting fossil fuels is itself damaging to the environment in a general way, but then that isn't a fossil fuel thing as much as it is just humans doing what humans do in their industrialized way.

I think we should change. I downsized my own lifestyle back around 2011, just because it was time. Transport became first hybrid and then EV. The daughter went all vegan, screwed up family meals something fierce. The wife began recycling everything she could get her hands on. Every little bit helps, even if the sum total of the species "little bit" still doesn't show up at Mauna Loa.

Catweazle wrote:

Or is it possible that the recent drives towards zero emissions and electric vehicles are actually designed to wean us off oil gently, avoiding a rapid crash ?


Peak demand is on the way by 2030 according to Barclays and Rystad, and Tony Seba has it pegged alot sooner, like within a couple of years. He is a bit optimistic I think, and arrives at his conclusions using completely different analysis than Barclays and Rystad.

I've got no beef with peak demand at all. My irritation was always with zealots refusing to do the hard work to answer the peak oil question, and instead just coming up with the most ridiculous stuff in order to get to their favorite doom scenario.
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woodburner



Joined: 06 Apr 2009
Posts: 3936

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doom? Well here is some ridiculous stuff Wink It can’t possibly be fact as it does not fit the narraitve.

Quote:
As we have already discovered, oil can be produced virtually anywhere on earth, provided the host country can afford the expensive [and sometimes classified] technology, and the massive cost of drilling a well to extreme depth through extremely hard rock formations. But just think what even 20 or 30 deep producing oil wells can mean for the people of a country that has no natural resources of its own, or worse still, for people who have been told by glib western lobbyists that they have no natural resources of their own. Anyone who can prove that the western nations were lying or simply wrong, will become a trusted friend forever. Vietnam is a classic example.

After more than 60 years of being enslaved, pillaged, and raped by the French and then by the Americans, the poor Vietnamese were told officially by American oil multinationals that their country was barren; that western 'cutting edge' technology had failed to find anything to help them recover financially from the mess left behind by American bombs, Agent Orange, and a host of other delightful gifts from Uncle Sam. This of course was exactly where America wanted the Vietnamese to be: desperately poor and unable to take action against their former invaders.

The Russians had other ideas and a very different approach. After telling the Vietnamese that the Americans had lied to them, oil experts were flown in from Moscow to prove this startling claim in a no-risk joint venture, meaning the Russians would provide all of the equipment and expertise free of charge, and only then take a percentage of the profits if oil was actually found and put into production. Vietnam had absolutely nothing to lose, and swiftly gave Russia the green light.

The Vietnamese White Tiger oil field was and is a raging success, currently producing high quality crude oil from basalt rock more than 17,000 feet below the surface of the earth, at 6,000 barrels per day per well. Through White Tiger, the Russians have assisted the Vietnamese to regain part of their self respect, while at the same time making them far less dependent on brutal western nations for food-aid handouts.

All of a sudden in a very small way, Vietnam has joined the exclusive club of oil producing nations, and a stream of cynical U.S. Senators and Congressmen have started making the long pilgrimage to Ho Chi Minh City in order to 'mend fences'.
Predictably perhaps, the Vietnamese are very cool, and try hard to ignore their new American admirers


More...........
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11069
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Try this on the above

Quote:
Mobil struck oil in the Bạch Hổ field in February 1975, shortly before the Fall of Saigon.[7] It was later developed by the joint Vietnamese-Russian entity Vietsovpetro in the 1980s and 1990s.[3] Upon examination of the source rock and oil content, petrogeologists have emphasized that the oil's components indicate a lacustrine organic facies with lipid-rich, land-plant debris and fresh-water algal material, refuting theories of abiogenic origin in this area.


Try this source as well.

But then a conspiracy theory involving Western lies and Russian abiotic theory is much more enticing! The world can be so boring sometimes.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 74
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

woodburner wrote:
Doom? Well here is some ridiculous stuff Wink It can’t possibly be fact as it does not fit the narraitve.

Quote:
As we have already discovered, oil can be produced virtually anywhere on earth, provided the host country can afford the expensive [and sometimes classified] technology, and the massive cost of drilling a well to extreme depth through extremely hard rock formations. But just think what even 20 or 30 deep producing oil wells can mean for the people of a country that has no natural resources of its own, or worse still, for people who have been told by glib western lobbyists that they have no natural resources of their own. Anyone who can prove that the western nations were lying or simply wrong, will become a trusted friend forever. Vietnam is a classic example.

After more than 60 years of being enslaved, pillaged, and raped by the French and then by the Americans, the poor Vietnamese were told officially by American oil multinationals that their country was barren; that western 'cutting edge' technology had failed to find anything to help them recover financially from the mess left behind by American bombs, Agent Orange, and a host of other delightful gifts from Uncle Sam. This of course was exactly where America wanted the Vietnamese to be: desperately poor and unable to take action against their former invaders.

The Russians had other ideas and a very different approach. After telling the Vietnamese that the Americans had lied to them, oil experts were flown in from Moscow to prove this startling claim in a no-risk joint venture, meaning the Russians would provide all of the equipment and expertise free of charge, and only then take a percentage of the profits if oil was actually found and put into production. Vietnam had absolutely nothing to lose, and swiftly gave Russia the green light.

The Vietnamese White Tiger oil field was and is a raging success, currently producing high quality crude oil from basalt rock more than 17,000 feet below the surface of the earth, at 6,000 barrels per day per well. Through White Tiger, the Russians have assisted the Vietnamese to regain part of their self respect, while at the same time making them far less dependent on brutal western nations for food-aid handouts.

All of a sudden in a very small way, Vietnam has joined the exclusive club of oil producing nations, and a stream of cynical U.S. Senators and Congressmen have started making the long pilgrimage to Ho Chi Minh City in order to 'mend fences'.
Predictably perhaps, the Vietnamese are very cool, and try hard to ignore their new American admirers


More...........


Eh. If the abiotic oil angle was so great we wouldn't be steaming tar off of sand in Canada and strip mining half of Alberta to do it.

Besides, your article doesn't mention the geochem work on where the oil comes from, only its weird geology. I can list plenty of weird geology, and the geochem work still leads back to Kerogen types I, II and III. Find the geochem work that says the oil was manufactured by nature another way and I'll show some interest. No one has been able to do that yet.
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kenneal - lagger
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Joined: 20 Sep 2006
Posts: 11069
Location: Newbury, Berkshire

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
..................Besides, your article doesn't mention the geochem work on where the oil comes from, only its weird geology. I can list plenty of weird geology, and the geochem work still leads back to Kerogen types I, II and III. Find the geochem work that says the oil was manufactured by nature another way and I'll show some interest. No one has been able to do that yet.


RGR you should know that it's all a great conspiracy by US oil giants to keep us in ignorance of the great new source of power in the world and a way of keeping oil prices high. woodburner knows this because he has read it on the internet and it must be true and you can't use "bogus" science to prove otherwise.
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ReserveGrowthRulz



Joined: 19 May 2019
Posts: 74
Location: Colorado

PostPosted: Wed Jun 19, 2019 6:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

kenneal - lagger wrote:
ReserveGrowthRulz wrote:
..................Besides, your article doesn't mention the geochem work on where the oil comes from, only its weird geology. I can list plenty of weird geology, and the geochem work still leads back to Kerogen types I, II and III. Find the geochem work that says the oil was manufactured by nature another way and I'll show some interest. No one has been able to do that yet.


RGR you should know that it's all a great conspiracy by US oil giants to keep us in ignorance of the great new source of power in the world and a way of keeping oil prices high. woodburner knows this because he has read it on the internet and it must be true and you can't use "bogus" science to prove otherwise.


While I am familiar with conspiracy theories in general, when it comes to the generally accepted science on how organic matter, sedimentary rock and thermogenic processes generate oil and natural gas I haven't seen any that apply yet.

The usual conspiracy theory entry point is confusing the "no one knows exactly why" admission with "because you don't I can plug in any crazy 6-degrees of freedom story I want".

Oil and gas giants want to make money. I've never seen one express much of an ulterior motive beyond that yet.
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