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Brexit process
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
Posts: 9626
Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
I don't think that a 'less Brexity' Brexit will work out.

A total revocation would be better ... but that would infuriate 50% of the population.

Difficult to square the circle.


That 50% do not want May's deal. If parliament won't deliver a no deal brexit then we might as well revoke. Starting again from scratch is better than trying to fix May's deal.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
Who knows!

I think the key electorally is the Labour Leave vote. Will they finally desert Labour or will they carry on voting like donkeys for a party that betrayed the referendum result.


I'm not so sure they will see Labour as having betrayed the referendum result. They are likely to blame the tories for that.
Not round here. Round here, the fury at Labour is white hot.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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Location: south east England

PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:
Who knows!

I think the key electorally is the Labour Leave vote. Will they finally desert Labour or will they carry on voting like donkeys for a party that betrayed the referendum result.


I'm not so sure they will see Labour as having betrayed the referendum result. They are likely to blame the tories for that.
Not round here. Round here, the fury at Labour is white hot.


Labour are still likely to gain more than they lose if they back a second referendum. At the end of the day, Labour are not responsible for negotiating May's deal, and have a reasonable case (regarding large-scale loss of manufacturing jobs) for failing to support no deal. The polls indicate that the tories are suffering far worse than labour because of the long extension.
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Little John



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The polls are indicating they are both suffering with the Tories suffering slightly more. Which is hardly surprising given they are in the driving seat. What is even more surprising, given they are not, is how much the labour vote has also suffered. However in truth, this is not that surprising given that Labour are seen as being traitors to the democratic vote of the referendum no less than the Tories. The Tories are only getting it in the neck slightly more due to them being viewed as having a bit more degree of control.

But, come an election, neither the Tories nor Labour will have any cover and they will both be hammered. Maybe not enough, this time around, to stop one of them limping into 10 Downing Street. But, enough to F--k things up and enough to provide a clear sign of times to come.
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Vortex2



Joined: 13 Jan 2019
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 3:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The first-past-the-post system will ensure that one of the two main parties will win again.

Brexit will fade away and the elite will resume their laughing behind their hands at the silly voters.
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kenneal - lagger
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vortex2 wrote:
.......Brexit will fade away and the elite will resume their laughing behind their hands at the silly voters.


What "elite". Why flatter the bastards. There is nothing elite about them apart from their psychopathy. Call them what they are; the Kleptocracy is one name that fits.
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Little John



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes, Everything will be fine.

War is peace, freedom is slavery and ignorance is strength.

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
The Tories are only getting it in the neck slightly more due to them being viewed as having a bit more degree of control.



A "bit" more? Steve, they are the f***ing government. Labour is the opposition. The tories have nearly all the power, and brexit is their baby.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UE - no they don't. Tories run a minority government and require DUP support to get anything through the Commons. Hardly power by any stretch of the imagination.

Labour have blocked everything and critically embrace a 2nd referendum which most Leave voters is just a ruse to get back into the EU through a Remain vote. That is the political reality.

And that's why there is growing fury among Labour Leave voters at both parties.

Regarding the EU parliamentary elections, there won't be a anti-EU majority. A sizable minority but the pro-EU centre-left/centre-right will sustain their majority within the parliament. The real risk is that the anti-EU will be able to block legislation or directives and team up with Eurosceptic member-states within the EU Council.

https://www.politico.eu/2019-european-elections/european-elections-data-visualized/

The Tories are really starting to see big drop in the poll.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/04/13/leave-voters-have-lost-faith-tories-ability-deliver-brexit/

Quote:
However, five months of Brexit debate and division have taken a severe toll. Across all the polls taken on or since the original Brexit day of 29 March Conservative support has averaged no more than 31 per cent, eight points down on mid-November. Much of this drop reflects disappointment among Leave voters - around a half of whom would prefer ‘no deal’ - at the government’s failure to deliver Brexit.

Support for the Conservatives among Leavers has fallen by no less than 12 points since mid-November. In contrast, it has fallen by only three points among those who backed Remain. Leave voters have been drawn back to either UKIP or Nigel Farage’s newly launched Brexit party.


Quote:
There is some consolation for the Conservatives. Labour too has lost ground heavily in recent months. It now stands at 34 per cent, five points down on where it was in mid-November.


Growing talk that May could be removed after May should 10,000 Tory members sign to change the rules. Given the likely hammering the Tories will rightly get in the polls soon this looks increasingly likely.

Reached the conclusion that only Boris can restore the Tory hopes and he will have my vote at the next contest (assuming he gets into top 2).
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Little John



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Latest polling.

The Brexit party has been running less than two weeks.

Where this eventually leads is to a British Le Pen.

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RevdTess



Joined: 24 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Latest polling.

The Brexit party has been running less than two weeks.


Their problem is there's now two Brexit parties taking votes from each other, and in the FPTP system that just means their opponents win.

It's easier for them in EU elections which is a PR system.

It's fascinating how the Tories' main motivation has gone from achieving Brexit to finding a way to avoid meltdown in the polls. Any poll from now on will be a pseudo-referendum on Brexit and the Tories' part in it. Obviously 16m Remainers plus 3 years of new young voters will need to find a non-Tory home for their votes, but now Brexiteers have little reason to vote Conservative either, especially when it looks like May might agree a customs union keeping us more trapped in the EU than ever.

If this has been Corbyn's plan all along, it's a fine political move, as is the EU's decision to push the WA deadline out beyond June so that May is forced to face the electoral consequences of her intransigence. The deadline is no longer about the deal, it's about the next set of elections.

I still think a 2nd referendum would be the best strategy for the Tories because whatever the outcome they can say they fulfilled the will of the people. I think this is why more Tory voices are proposing a referendum at some point as a way out of electoral protest-vote meltdown. At the moment their approach has fulfilled the will of precisely no people, and every election from now on will reflect that.
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UndercoverElephant



Joined: 10 Mar 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Little John wrote:
Latest polling.

The Brexit party has been running less than two weeks.

Where this eventually leads is to a British Le Pen.



That figure of 16% in the Euro elections, if it becomes a reality, will be the worst result in a national election for the tory party since 1838.

The Labour figure is not bad, comparatively. Labour have no choice now but to abandon the leave vote.

They certainly can't back May's deal - that's the tory position and it is a massive loser which pleases nobody. They'd be insane to go that way.

And parliament won't back no deal. Even if Labour whipped its MPs for no deal, they wouldn't comply. And they'd lose well over half their existing support.

So what can they do? They have no choice but to back some sort of second referendum, which remain would win. Anything else is electorally insane, even though backing a second referendum will lose them a considerable chunk of potential voters in rust belt England. Although I am not convinced this will lead to the losing seats, given that the whole political spectrum is fracturing and we have a FPTP system. Potentially, Labour could win an overall majority with a surprisingly small vote share. I would not be surprised if in my own constituency (Hastings) their vote share goes down, but they take the seat off Amber Rudd anyway because the tory vote will go down further.
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Lord Beria3



Joined: 25 Feb 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Both parties getting dragged down by Brexit.

Labour would do better if national conversation moved on to domestic issues like housing, crime, jobs, standard of living etc which they enjoy strong leads against the Tories.
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UndercoverElephant



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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lord Beria3 wrote:


Labour would do better if national conversation moved on to domestic issues like housing, crime, jobs, standard of living etc which they enjoy strong leads against the Tories.


The "national conversation" cannot move on until brexit has been resolved, one way or the other. However, if a general election is called then those other things will also come into play.
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clv101
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 15, 2019 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Lord Beria3 wrote:


Labour would do better if national conversation moved on to domestic issues like housing, crime, jobs, standard of living etc which they enjoy strong leads against the Tories.


The "national conversation" cannot move on until brexit has been resolved, one way or the other. However, if a general election is called then those other things will also come into play.


I wonder if, for Labour, putting a 2nd vote in the manifesto is a way of offloading Brexit and returning focus to domestic issues for the campaign.
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